92L Invest

[EDR1222]

It looks more concentrated this morning on satellite.

Still seems to be some windshear there, but it is holding its own.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The LLC is becoming more defined. I think recon will find a depression.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

LLC well Defined? This thing looks like crap this morning...

[Ola]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
515 AM AST FRI JUL 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...WITH LLVL LOW CENTER NEAR 17.5N 61W AT 5
AM... MOVING W AROUND 15 MPH...AND WILL SPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER AND
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST BEST
MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL PASS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...LLVL LOW LOOKS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING DUE WEST PAST 24
HOURS...AND IS TRAILING A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW MOVING W AND
PASSING JUST S OF P.R. ATTM. THIS FEATURE MAY HELP TO PULL THE WAVE
VORTEX A BIT MORE WEST THAN FORECAST...AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND E AND NE SECTIONS OF P.R. LATER THIS EVENING. STRONG GUSTY NE
WINDS WILL OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AND COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN SQUALLS AND TSTORMS. THEN
WITH THE MAIN LOW OR WAVE VORTEX MOVING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING AND THEN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC TONIGHT...WITH A S TO SE LLVL
FLOW BUILDING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE WAVE. THIS WILL PULL TROPICAL
MOISTURE WITH IT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS...BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE SHALLOW AND RAINFALL NOT EXPECTED NEAR AS INTENSE
AS POSSIBLE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE.


I have a feeling its gonnna be a very rainy night here in PR.

[cycloneye]

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W TO 10N61W NEAR NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
58W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...FROM 17N59W
TO 25N46W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE
LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING
WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS
TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

[cinlfla]

THE
LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING
WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS
TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

Can someone please explain what they are saying.

[elysium]

92L looks to be heading directly into the islands where it will meet its demise. THis one's a total dud.

[wxcrazytwo]

92L looks to be heading directly into the islands where it will meet its demise. THis one's a total dud.

Huh, how do you figure??

[Anonymous]

92L looks to be heading directly into the islands where it will meet its demise. THis one's a total dud.

Yes please explain

[WeatherEmperor]

Im sorry to sound like an idiot but is the recon still scheduled to go in this afternoon?

<RICKY>

[x-y-no]

THE
LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING
WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS
TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

Can someone please explain what they are saying.

There's an upper-level trough with three embedded lows situated ahead of the system. You can see these lows in the WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

Of most interest is the low at 26N 62W, bcking westerly. If 92L gets underneath this low, that would tear it apart. OTOH, if the low continues to back away ahead of 92L, it could actually enhance development by ventilating the system.

Jan

[x-y-no]

Im sorry to sound like an idiot but is the recon still scheduled to go in this afternoon?

<RICKY>

Yes. My feeling is that there's enough to this thing that they'll definitely go.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im sorry to sound like an idiot but is the recon still scheduled to go in this afternoon?

<RICKY>

Yes. My feeling is that there's enough to this thing that they'll definitely go.

goodie. in your personal opinion, will we have a TD before days end?

<RICKY>

[elysium]

I will admit that this one had me going for a while. When you study the satellite imagery carefully, though, you realize that whoever listed this as a strong tropical wave has a very broad interpretation of the word 'strong'. This thing is in about the worst shape that it could be in and still be a wave, IMO.

This is a dud. It's better to realize it early. Even if it holds together (highly unlikely), this thing will never extract itself from the mountains of Hispaniola and Cuba. It's moving dead west. You can forget it.

I hate to be the one to break this to everyone here. 92L did look promising, but this one's over. This is when you kiss them goodbye and.....move on to the next one. It isn't so much that it's in poor condition, it's rather because it will never get a chance to develop. This one is making a bee line into the mountains, and there is nothing that can be done about that. 92L is a waste of time.

[Frank2]

Re: elysium's post

Hooray - someone finally agrees with me!

Perhaps the recon will fly this area this afternoon, but, don't be surprised if they cancel - it's a long flight from Keesler to the northeast Caribbean, and they'll probably not go if the NHC believes the system does not warrant an immediate invest.

The wave at this time is very unimpressive, despite the TWO's description of it being a "vigorous tropical wave". Again, as mentioned yesterday, if NHC forecaster and friend Miles Lawrence was still on duty (he retired two months ago), I'll guess and say that he would have far downplayed the situation - while he wouldn't have written it off, for certain, he wouldn't have called the system "vigorous", that's for sure.

Frank

[cinlfla]

Of most interest is the low at 26N 62W, bcking westerly. If 92L gets underneath this low, that would tear it apart. OTOH, if the low continues to back away ahead of 92L, it could actually enhance development by ventilating the system.

Jan

Thanks for explaining, I have to admit it does look pretty crappy right now.

[Thunder44]

628
WHXX01 KWBC 291221
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050729 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050729 1200 050730 0000 050730 1200 050731 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.9N 63.0W 17.8N 65.0W 19.0N 66.9W 20.5N 68.8W
BAMM 16.9N 63.0W 17.5N 65.4W 18.4N 67.8W 19.6N 69.8W
A98E 16.9N 63.0W 17.2N 65.6W 17.7N 67.8W 18.8N 69.8W
LBAR 16.9N 63.0W 17.7N 65.5W 18.6N 67.8W 19.7N 69.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050731 1200 050801 1200 050802 1200 050803 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 70.3W 23.8N 72.4W 25.0N 73.8W 26.2N 74.9W
BAMM 20.8N 71.6W 22.2N 74.0W 22.6N 75.7W 22.7N 77.7W
A98E 20.1N 71.6W 22.1N 75.5W 24.1N 78.7W 26.5N 80.5W
LBAR 20.9N 71.9W 22.8N 74.9W 24.1N 77.5W 24.9N 79.1W
SHIP 49KTS 59KTS 65KTS 69KTS
DSHP 47KTS 56KTS 63KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 60.2W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 16.3N LONM24 = 54.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[WeatherEmperor]

If you take a close look at the model graphics you can determine that if 92L is going to survive at all, it will need to start moving WNW right now because if it makes the WNW motion any later, it will meet Hispanola and that will be the end of this system.

<RICKY>

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

[Frank2]

Let's remember the disclaimer for the above test run:

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

Frank

[x-y-no]

Im sorry to sound like an idiot but is the recon still scheduled to go in this afternoon?

<RICKY>

Yes. My feeling is that there's enough to this thing that they'll definitely go.

goodie. in your personal opinion, will we have a TD before days end?

<RICKY>

Tough to say - there's still no closed circulation that I can see, but it's a very sharp wave at this point, and a goodly amount of convection is firing up over the "center".

So if I were forced to place a bet, I'd say yes - this afternoon or evening.

Jan