Space Weather effects tropical intensifiction & developm

[mf_dolphin]

Ok it's back. Sorry if I butchered anyone's post.

[Aslkahuna]

We know that Gemag storms and certain Solar events have effects at ground level-sometimes quite significant effects. But if they have effects on the atmosphere remains to be seen. What we do know is that the auroral dynamo releases enormous quantities of energy into the upper atmosphere mainly in the form of heat (the visible aurora constitutes only 5% of this energy) so much in fact, that it goes way beyond the Gigawatt capabilities of the HAARP transmitters in puttin energy there. The base height of the aurora is typically 60km which is basically the top of the stratosphere. Now we know that wintertime Polar Stratwarm events are linked to extremely cold low tropospheric temperatures directly below the Stratwarm. Could we trigger or intensify a Stratwarm by heating the lower Mesosphere? Don't know nor do we know if the Gemags can affect other weather systems. What needs to be done is a rigorous statistical analysis on the hypothesised correlations to see if they exist or if they are a random variation involving two chaotic systems. If the correlations exist then someone is going to have to explain why they exist.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Jim,

You wrote: I have found that the Atlantic storms and quite possibly other areas...and Northeasters also...seem to form when the solar wind speed is below the 500 km/sec range. They also tend to form while the solar wind is in a diminishing state after the winds had been higher during the previous 24-72 hours. Many storms form within 24 hours after the hourly averages fall to the 500 km/sec range. TS Gert did this most recently. The only time that these variables are not needed, or seen in the below data is when the MeV2 electron fluence is > 0.0E+07 (Above this value)

Only TS Mathew from 2004 does not fit this relationship...

How often do these conditions exist and no tropical cyclones develop? In other words, how common are "false alarms" relative to occasions when such systems develop?

The solar winds wax and wane allot but the the amount of times that it exceeds 500 km/sec. range depends upon the amount of earth directed solar eruptions and geoeffective coronal holes. I have thought about your false alarm question before and I would like to go back and gather all of the data to show the let's say no shows.

I have done this in a crude way though just for the fact that I found the differences regarding the electron flux level. You have to remember I really just started to aggressively getting back into both forecasting and researching again in January 2005. So I am both talking and using variables that I had used years ago. I was a stay at home dad taking care of twins since October 2000 so it's not like I could be doing allot. If you have had kids you understand why.

The solar wind variable is a forecasting tool to be used just like allot of my methodology. I have been using things like this for years. I basically listened to official forecasts on many weather fronts and I also watched space weather. I then would look over things thoroughly of when they were right or wrong....the really good hits.. bad misses ...I started to notice patterns with space weather.

I believe the solar wind connection can help you enhance your accuracy by telling you when the tropical wave will form into a TD if they are calling for one to develop. I told people over in the TWC forum early on in the July 4th weekend that they would have to wait a few days until the solar winds subsided when they were all talking about some possible tropical development.

A few days later Cindy and Dennis formed.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for your reply, Jim. I'll look forward to seeing the results once you have gathered the data. It will be interesting to see what turns up.

[Jim Hughes]

Thanks for your reply, Jim. I'll look forward to seeing the results once you have gathered the data. It will be interesting to see what turns up.

I just wanted to get back to you on something but please bear with me. I have a couple of points to make first ....Keeps the steam from blowing out my ears...I know how this must sound people...but it's the truth...

I just went to the Wilcox Observatory to pull up some direct URL's for the past two years worth of Stanford Mean Magnetic field readings...explain why below...

I was surprised to see that the 2005 data was updated to July 26th...I am a recipient of a daily e-mail from them in which I get the preliminary value because they never update it...sometimes data shows up 30 plus days later ...Early 2005 data did not show up until spring..


Now maybe this is a coincidence and they will fall back to their usual delayed manner but I have to wonder again about the number of people trying to get the data...For them ...headache...lets just put it out daily...

Nonsense???? No this has happened before. Steve/ Aslkahuna may remember a discussion paper that I wrote a long time ago and I sent it out on July 13th 2003. He was on my mailing list back then.

Maybe he kept it. It was titled " Forecasting by the use of solar/geomagnetic parameters." I fairly long ... 21 kb...

Steve and I exchanged a few emails afterward about it's contents. The fall of 2003 was around the last time that we really conversed together.

Anyway...he may recall a later topic we had shortly after this e-mail discussion about the SEC daily events listing.

I told him about how they were now posting the location of the disappearing solar filaments in the SEC's daily edited events listing. This had not happened before. At least not regularly.

Well here is a URL to look at and it is a special notice put out by them on September 8th , 2003. They say that the reports will now have an associated location with the DSF events.

So I write something up about the DSF's importance to storm development and numerous people within the different fields receive this, Do I have to tell you them again ??? .... and the SEC just happens to change it's format that they had for a decade within the following 60 days.

Scroll down just a tad and you will see the Sept 8th , 2003 notice.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/events/README

So I guess all the above is a coincidence ...everyones e-mail servers are changing everywhere now .... and forums are closing for maintenance....Sure and I got some swamp land if anyone wants to buy it.

Things are getting hot people. This tropical season has shown again that my theories work quite well and they are the building blocks of something big and many people already know about this.

Now what about space weather/tropical formation....

The solar wind speed is still above the 500 km/sec level and the 2> Mev fluence level is rising but it was below the key mark the past two days. (0.0e+07) They may rise above it by tonight though.

Allot depends on whether we get hit by a transient from one of the eruptions during the prior 48 hours. Transients usually act much differently than a direct coronal mass ejection (CME) hit. So it's a tight call in the electron fluence department ..if it stays high it's can not hurt development...

The Stanford Mean magnetic field reading has been in a weakening negative state the past three days. 26th-28th...- 56 - 41 -18 ...Why is this important ?

Remember and earlier thread..Hope not deleted...This reading determines which areas of the sun ...quadrants...are conducive...In other words where the eruptions originate from....QBO related so it switched from last year...2005 rules that I stated in March discussions

Positive Stanford - NE/SW

Negative Stanford - SE/NW

Steve has been talking about the hot region that has been causing the increased flaring/eruptions the past couple of days. It is in the NE quadrant of the sun. The conducive light switch will be turned on when the Stanford switches to positive.

What else about the Stanford?? ... Most storms form when it is positive.. five out of seven this year....Bret..Gert ....negative...but Gert (-2 daily value )... values can reach triple digits during cycle.. at Gert developmental time almost neutral than ...Bret different ... (-39)

Storms forming during negative readings seem to occur when the _Solar Wind_ (Not Stanford Mean) has a positive directional component. Confused??? I am bear with me....

Okay... Here's somewhat how it is...Just imagine a balloon with a hole in it...the solar wind blows from it and the ACE satellite orbiting the earth measures it's magnetic field directional component that comes along with it...ACE ends up measuring a positive directional component in the IMF. (Centered around 135 degrees longitude than )

The Stanford Mean magnetic field reading is a magnetic field measurement made by the Wilcox Observatory of the visible solar disk between the latitudes 55S and 55N. So the average of the solar surface could be different than the area of where the current solar winds originated from and this is usually the case on allot of occasions.

Don't forget the area of the sun , where the solar winds originated from, was near the central meridian 2-3 days ago...or slightly longer... But this area has since rotated away , toward the west, and a new magnetic field direction has since crossed the eastern limb , and it is rotating toward us.

The sun has magnetic field sectors that usually last between 5-10 days with seven days being about average. But the length of these phases depends on the time of where we are at in approximate 11 year sunspot cycle. So a negative sector will follow a positive sector and vice versa.

Hence the Stanford Mean magnetic field readings will show a rise in the opposite polarity of the current solar wind directional component unless the current solar wind component was the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) . ( Although it could have come at us diagonally instead of from dead center. )

So again.... what's going on now space weather wise ??

The solar winds have been moderately high the past 24 hours or so and they have recently been hovering a little under the 600 km/sec range. ...the 2> MeV electron fluence , has been below the the 0.0e+07 level the past 48 hours so this could not make up for the high wind speed above 500 km/sec...not conducive then.

The solar winds should be diminishing within the next 24 hours and they should fall below the 500 km/sec level unless we get hit by a CME from one of the previous eruptions the past two days. The 2 > MeV levels are rising so they may even get above the 0.0e+07 level by tonight anyway. So the above 500 km/sec solar wind speed level may not matter.

OTOH a CME impact could make the 2 > MeV level stay below the 0.0e+07 level. Then the wind speed matters again. Confused again ??

In other words it's a mess right now and this is why the forecasts about the tropical waves have been probably going back and forth and the recon plane will find a mess out there until all the variables become conducive ...permanently...This could be tonight or maybe not...

A Stanford Mean change to positive would be a big push in developmental favor especially if more eruptions occur....36 hour lag time if they occur....I will keep everyone updated later tonight....




Stanford numbers...


http://soi.stanford.edu/~wso/meanfld/mf.2004

http://soi.stanford.edu/~wso/meanfld/mf.2005



Solar wind Speed readings.


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt


2> MeV electron Fluence readings (2nd readings from the right end )


http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DPD.txt

[Jim Hughes]

Please give some examples of ion counts and conductivity changes at the surface of the ocean under a tropical system and some equations that describe them.

Again, we're looking for actual direct measurements and actual math here.

I was wondering when someone was going to play their "This is total BS" card. My hand was twitching as I scrolled through the posts.

Mike or mine? If it's mine then I would like to know if you read the Baranyi paper that I gave the URL for about corpuscular radiation and how it only effects certain areas and not others ? What part do you disagree with and why? If you did not read it then it is not worth discussing.

[Aslkahuna]

We are off to the races- we have a X1 LDE in progress in region 792.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

We are off to the races- we have a X1 LDE in progress in region 792.

Steve

Yes I saws that this morning. Proton levels not rising ... No particulars in yet...would like to know about whether a Type ll occurred ..it's importance also ...The LASCO C3 image listing stopped yesterday at 29/1642z . I am not sure why .. it's not bake out time and the proton event was not that strong.

I am going to take a look at the C2 and C3 five day mpeg's and see if any limb eruptions occurred. I will let you know something later if I see something....if it's up that is.

[Jim Hughes]

Nothing is updated...no particulars on the event and no LASCO images past early yesterday.....Pretty hard to make an analysis with no data other than the x-ray level....Sure it was associated with many things but I would like to both look at the LASCO images and see the particulars....maybe updates will come later.

Got plans this afternoon be back later today ..or tonight.

[Aslkahuna]

Here's what I have on the X1 flare right now. It was a X1.3/2B (with Umbral coverage) LDE/2100 sfu 10Flare with max at 30/0625Z. It was followed by an Importance 3 Type II with a shock speed of 1801 km/sec and an Importance 2 Type IV. The radio burst profile was not overly indicative of a Proton Flare (no Castelli U profile) but it has likely produced a fast CME-considering that we saw effects from the CME from the earlier M4 event when the region was on the limb, we might catch something from this as well. If so, then the >2 MeV will remain below high levels for a while longer.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

SEC is reporting an assymetric Full Halo CME with a plane of the sky speed of 1700-1800 km/sec from the X1. Probable impact tomorrow. The
>2 MeV electron flux has become high in the wake of the coronal hole, but if we get a significant disturbance it will fall of again until the decay phase when we will get Van Allen dumping again.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Here's what I have on the X1 flare right now. It was a X1.3/2B (with Umbral coverage) LDE/2100 sfu 10Flare with max at 30/0625Z. It was followed by an Importance 3 Type II with a shock speed of 1801 km/sec and an Importance 2 Type IV. The radio burst profile was not overly indicative of a Proton Flare (no Castelli U profile) but it has likely produced a fast CME-considering that we saw effects from the CME from the earlier M4 event when the region was on the limb, we might catch something from this as well. If so, then the >2 MeV will remain below high levels for a while longer.

Steve

Yes I saw all the goodies when we got home earlier this evening. The shock speed fits considering how quickly this thing showed up in LASCO images. The 0753z image shows a nice eruption already present on the eastern limb....

I would have to say with this eruption..Type ll/3 & lV/2......Houston all systems go...I would like to see a cluster of B-Class flares now...spoke about it last year in the TWC forum during a short drop by but some people may have forgotten...there is something about their higher electron levels that help the early stages..or even later for that matter. Have often wondered about different flux levels ... coupling different levels/areas.... there by bringing it all together.

[Ixolib]

WOW - this is some seriously technical stuff - otherwise knows as STU... Really makes me realize how many things I didn't even know I didn't know about!! And in this case, I believe I'm just fine with that awareness!!

[Jim Hughes]

WOW - this is some seriously technical stuff - otherwise knows as STU... Really makes me realize how many things I didn't even know I didn't know about!! And in this case, I believe I'm just fine with that awareness!!

Well if it makes you feel any better I knew what I did not know but now I do not know what I know....I thnk....

[Aslkahuna]

I was involved in Space Weather Forecasting while at OFF when in the USAF and at Forth Huachuca where we supported testing and evaluation of many satellite and surface based com and tracking systems (including GPS). It's a complex field to be sure and requires some knowledge of Solar Astrophysics, Magnetospheric Physics, Geophysics, Ionospheric Physics as well as the propagation of electromagnetic energy through the atmosphere and through the atmosphere into Space. Like weather, it has its own jargon and acronyms which we use. It's easier and faster to say LDE than Long Duration Event or CME instead of Coronal Mass Ejection. Type II and IV radio bursts are sweep frequency bursts that relate to the development and movement of the flare shock through the Solar Corona and usually indicate that a CME has been generated. The Importance relates to the intensity.

Steve