Where is the center of 92L?

[Huckster]

What is the evidence for the circulation being where they've got it? I don't see anything on visible sat. there.

[Javlin]

I think you are right Mike looks roughly 18N and 53W on the goes 1 VIS.Speed up the animation some .

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There seems to be a clearlly defined LLC trying to develop near 19 north/54.8 west. Inflow is coming in from the south. While low level clouds wraping around it. Convection trying to fire over it. The low to the southwest doe's not impress me at all.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[BigA]

I sort of see a center there, but i think my eyes might just be playing tricks on me. I do think there is a fair chance at development though.

[Zadok]

the normal pattern over the years is for them to recurve. Watch for that.

[WeatherEmperor]

oh boy i cannot wait for that hurricane hunter recon to get over there and put all of us out of our misery when they find the true center. That is, if the mission will still commence tomorrow.

<RICKY>

[skysummit]

the normal pattern over the years is for them to recurve. Watch for that.

Yes, that is a pattern....for mostly developed systems. This is not a developed system yet, nor is this a "normal year".

[wxman57]

First of all, recon would not be able to find anything there but a tropical wave at present. However, I can identify a very weak, broad lower-level circulation in the lowest cumulus layer (red circle) near 16.5N/59.5W. But I can also see a better-defined mid level circulation center around 18.5N/53W. In the case of 92L, it would appear that we need to focus on this mid-level center, as that's where thunderstorm activity is concentrating.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey2.gif">

[cycloneye]

As I see it tonight it looks like the southern low center around 17n-58w is trying to be the doninant one.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The so called MLC is falling apart tonight from 40 knot shear over the norhtern side. The LLC but appears to be strong enough to turn the winds over the islands. Which means its at the surface. It also has model support over the next few days as it is moving to the west-northwest. The Gfs/MM5/Cmc all take it to the west then west-northwest. Cmc then cuts it northwest.

I say once pass 64 west it will start to really develop. Franklin is over in out.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like Franklin the second


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[mike18xx]

(...)

[mike18xx]

The northern stuff appears to be gusting out tonight, and shunting energy westward toward the LLC.

[Hurricaneman]

Couldnt agree more

[Sanibel]

Surface spiral near islands now.


It may get blown away, but it could be one that sneaks up on Florida also. This is the kind of system that sneaks into the Straits and Keys after sneaking up as a weak system. All said, will probably crash.

[HurricaneJoe22]

:::looks at the clock::::

good idea, Sanibel....time to crash....nite everyone

[mike18xx]

After looking at: http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie.pl?sat+jpg+10tttt+600+800+aor+wv

I'm about 90% certain 92L is going to degenerate tomorrow.

In fact, none of the stuff on out to Africa looks very promising.

[mike18xx]

(...)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will be eating crow because this system is starting to develop a defined LLC right over the northern Leeward islands. Convection is poping with the shear mostly to the north.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[mike18xx]

Look at a WV loop -- 92L is an awful mess with very little hope.