92L Invest

[caribepr]

Ok, I have a question...being in a zone of *what the heck is going on?* here (I'm not feeling anxious about heavy weather at the moment, just kind of curious as to what might be ahead in the next few days for info purposes).
I am obviously NOT educated as to much of what many here are...but I usually can figure out whether something is getting big or close enough...is this train of waves/invests unusual in that they are either not developing enough to actually have much idea what is going on because of the number of them?
I don't remember a season like this actually...and pathetically enough, people here ask me about the weather because they know I'm slightly obsessed and usually can give them a fairly good clue (ultimately, it's all a good clue). At this point I can only say, uh...this is part of ..um...a system...that may go north, and there is another but, um...get back to me on that.
Not that I mind admitting ignorance, but what IS going on??

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

deleted question was answered already

[wxmann_91]

If the shear continues to be like this, you guys won't have to worry about any tropical systems for the next few days.

Of course, the amount of shear in any given area fluctuates frequently, but much of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is blanketed with shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

[rockyman]

Current steering flow for 92L...I'm new to reading these maps, but there appears to be a weakness off the east coast of Florida...it will be interesting to watch the flow as it develops over the next few days:



Here is the same map 24 hours ago:

[boca]

Maybe since Franklin is finally moving out and the trough is dissapating maybe the ridge might build in and that's a big maybe.

[johngaltfla]

The Upper Level Low that is just NW of 92L- Shouldn't the circulation around this ULL cause 92L to take a more NW instead of WNW Path??? Allowing it to possibly stay further away from land and catch a North before the ridge???

Before sounding the "all clear" just a reminder...

[deltadog03]

ok, that map shows a favorable enviroment for development....she ULL is NOT shearing it...its helping it....the will move in tandom NW then back WNW and finally due W are right around there...look at the 00z models...the weakness is there right now due to frankie, models show building in once he finally departs the surface...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm starting to feel that all this talk about beating 1933 was just that. That is talk. It can't happen that was just a short period of increased activety.


I see no reason for recon with this sysetem. If the LLC is not where the inflow is moving into the convection around 19 north/55 west. Then I don't see it. Recon is as good as Canceled. It doe's not mean that I'm not still rooting for this year.

[rockyman]

I'm starting to feel that all this talk about beating 1933 was just that. That is talk. It can't happen that was just a short period of increased activety.


I see no reason for recon with this sysetem. If the LLC is not where the inflow is moving into the convection around 19 north/55 west. Then I don't see it. Recon is as good as Canceled. It doe's not mean that I'm not still rooting for this year.

We're just in July and we currently have 2 invests and a tropical storm...I'd say we're STILL in a period of increased activity. Plus, we're 2 ahead of where 1933 was at this same time.

[boca]

Rockyman judging by those maps it looks like the high is building westward.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think that this wave/low system will still take a couple more days to develop. I would agree that there is shear out in front of it ( wherever it really is centered) but not enough to wipe it out. The steering currents TODAY look favorable for a east coast or re-curve, but let's see what they look like in 24-36 hrs. I am still bit dubious of the westward track into the GOM. more so as it gains lattitude at 15 mph or better.

[deltadog03]

Rockyman judging by those maps it looks like the high is building westward.

good point boca...just noticed that....the weakness is on your coast and on into GA/SC and pushing WEST

[BensonTCwatcher]

Rockyman judging by those maps it looks like the high is building westward.

Any guesses as to the effects of the front that will be moving off the coast this weekend on the ridging?

[cycloneye]

The 00:00z run at graphic.

[wxmann_91]

Recon is as good as Canceled.

If the upper-level environment doesn't improve tonight and if 92L continues to look so gaunt then that is a safe bet.

However that doesn't mean this won't develop. The recon flight to pre-Gert was cancelled and it didn't take the NHC a recon flight to upgrade the system even though it didn't look like anything at that time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres going to come a year when the SAL is cap off over Africa. In with a La nina pattern over the Ataltnic. With very little shear with water temperature as warm if not warmer then this year. In it can very easly happen in may have already happen more then once over the last 500 years. This year would bring 25 to 30 storms into one season. A perfect year where most of the systems devleop into hurricanes or Major hurricanes. If you think it can not happen. Then just look at what just a little more favable event we had this July did.

I also remember years that started out very strong but shut off fast. I don't believe that this season is over but I don't expect another 13 to 14 named storms. I say around 6 to 7 more. Given that troughs/SAL is already starting to affect the Atlantic.

[jasons2k]

I'm starting to feel that all this talk about beating 1933 was just that. That is talk. It can't happen that was just a short period of increased activety.

Something I learned a long time ago was never say "can't" .... just when you say that it happens....

[stormandan28]

was the recon flight cancelled or why does everybody keep saying its cancelled

[wxwatcher91]

this was probably already posted and I just didnt see it but for the slim chance that it wasnt; the 8pm TWD has 92L a "special feature."

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN CENTERED NEAR 37.6N 67.5W...OR ABOUT 395
MILES NM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA...AT 28/2100 UTC MOVING NE
15 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60
KT AND THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH FRANKLIN HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS AS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE W
SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO
ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE GULF STREAM. THEREAFTER...FRANKLIN'S FORECAST TRACK
WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER OCEAN WHICH
SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED 200-300 NM E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ALONG 57W WITH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 17N. THE WAVE/LOW IS
MOVING NW AT 15-20 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
WAVE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LOW WHICH
IS PROVIDING A LOW SHEAR AND DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. THIS UPPER
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE WAVE/LOW
MAINTAINING A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. AS
SUCH...FURTHER ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES NW.

sure 92L has some shear ahead of it but it has shaken off the SAL and some shear pretty well... this thing is gonna be Harvey this weekend...

[johngaltfla]

was the recon flight cancelled or why does everybody keep saying its cancelled

NOUS42 KNHC 281600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT THU 28 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-061

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 29/1430Z
D. 18.5N 62.0W
E. 29/1930Z TO 29/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 30/1800Z
NEAR 20.5N 67.5W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.