92L Invest

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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#61 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:41 pm

It appears that the low is under the convection near 19 north/55 west. But I guest they now think it is that area of clouds to the east of the leewards. At 17 north/58. Looks like Recon will be canceled!!!





DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.



.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050729 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...

050729 0000 050729 1200 050730 0000 050730 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 17.0N 58.0W 17.9N 60.1W 19.0N 61.9W 20.1N 63.7W

BAMM 17.0N 58.0W 17.9N 60.4W 19.0N 62.3W 20.2N 64.1W

A98E 17.0N 58.0W 17.8N 61.0W 18.7N 63.5W 19.9N 65.5W

LBAR 17.0N 58.0W 18.1N 60.8W 19.2N 63.2W 20.1N 65.3W

SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...

050731 0000 050801 0000 050802 0000 050803 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 21.3N 65.6W 23.1N 68.3W 24.1N 70.6W 25.2N 73.0W

BAMM 21.6N 65.6W 23.2N 67.5W 23.7N 69.1W 24.1N 71.2W

A98E 21.4N 67.2W 23.7N 70.6W 26.1N 73.4W 29.3N 73.8W

LBAR 21.3N 67.2W 22.9N 70.0W 23.6N 72.1W 23.6N 73.1W

SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS

DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 58.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT

LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 17KT

LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 51.0W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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#62 Postby boca » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:44 pm

If the 8:05pm disscussion says its moving NW it won't be a problem for Florida or the Florida Straits as someone indicated earlier in the day.92L would have to move N of due west or WNW to be a concern for Florida.If it does get its act together it should be closer to the Carolina's than Florida unless the high builds back in and that will be another story.
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#63 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:45 pm

thats where the problems are being raised...near the bahamas....
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#64 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:47 pm

The models just dont have a good handle on the center of this system. I dont blame them.

<RICKY>
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#65 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:47 pm

me either...i don't have much of a clue either.....so, they are initializing the LLC and not the MLC right???
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#66 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:49 pm

deltadog03 wrote:me either...i don't have much of a clue either.....so, they are initializing the LLC and not the MLC right???


Im just as lost as you are. lol. It is gonna be a very interesting next few days ahead of us.

<RICKY>
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#67 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:50 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050729 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050729 0000 050729 1200 050730 0000 050730 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.0N 58.0W 17.9N 60.1W 19.0N 61.9W 20.1N 63.7W
BAMM 17.0N 58.0W 17.9N 60.4W 19.0N 62.3W 20.2N 64.1W
A98E 17.0N 58.0W 17.8N 61.0W 18.7N 63.5W 19.9N 65.5W
LBAR 17.0N 58.0W 18.1N 60.8W 19.2N 63.2W 20.1N 65.3W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050731 0000 050801 0000 050802 0000 050803 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.3N 65.6W 23.1N 68.3W 24.1N 70.6W 25.2N 73.0W
BAMM 21.6N 65.6W 23.2N 67.5W 23.7N 69.1W 24.1N 71.2W
A98E 21.4N 67.2W 23.7N 70.6W 26.1N 73.4W 29.3N 73.8W
LBAR 21.3N 67.2W 22.9N 70.0W 23.6N 72.1W 23.6N 73.1W
SHIP 46KTS 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS
DSHP 46KTS 55KTS 65KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 58.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 16.3N LONM12 = 54.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 51.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

At the 18:00z Run they had it at 18.4n-53,4w but now they do with the original low center more south not another one at convection.
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#68 Postby boca » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:54 pm

What is the ridge suppose to be doing to steer are storm wannabe.I heard the ridge is to start building westward but not until early nest week according to the HPC.
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#69 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:55 pm

boca wrote:What is the ridge suppose to be doing to steer are storm wannabe.I heard the ridge is to start building westward but not until early nest week according to the HPC.
Building back westward once the storm is east of Florida. Its a Florida-SE threat.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#70 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:56 pm

If it develops from this little area of thunderstorms expect a western-northwest movement.
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#71 Postby rockyman » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:56 pm

What's with the little vortex down around 14/58?
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#72 Postby johngaltfla » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:57 pm

Interesting. 17.0 N, 58.0 W and winds estimated up to 25 knots. I think we may have a depression in 24-36 hours tops. Now starts the race of the High vs. intensification and forward speed. I wonder if those globals indicating a storm near the Florida Straits is still possible. That is a scarey thought.... :eek:
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#73 Postby boca » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:58 pm

I can't find it rockyman.
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#74 Postby rockyman » Thu Jul 28, 2005 7:59 pm

Image
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#75 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:00 pm

The Upper Level Low that is just NW of 92L- Shouldn't the circulation around this ULL cause 92L to take a more NW instead of WNW Path??? Allowing it to possibly stay further away from land and catch a North before the ridge???
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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gkrangers

#76 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:01 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:The Upper Level Low that is just NW of 92L- Shouldn't the circulation around this ULL cause 92L to take a more NW instead of WNW Path???
Yes..should track 92L NE of the Bahamas.
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#77 Postby boca » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:03 pm

System is moving NW not WNW, I'm not too concerned here in SE Florida yet.
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#78 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:03 pm

I'm not sure the ULL will influence much. The high if if if it builds west. Idon't see it building in enoung to turn anything through through the straits
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#79 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:03 pm

no....the ULL will help vent the system...also, its going to move in tandom with the storm...hmmm...thats the 00z plots??? looks like they think the ridge is going to build...
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Anonymous

#80 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:04 pm

boca wrote:System is moving NW not WNW, I'm not too concerned here in SE Florida yet.


Ehhh... the ridge builds back to push it west. If I lived in Key West I would be watching like a hawk. Same if I lived in New England.
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