92L Invest

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 1800 050729 0600 050729 1800 050730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.4N 53.4W 19.6N 55.7W 20.9N 57.7W 22.0N 59.6W
BAMM 18.4N 53.4W 19.5N 56.1W 20.8N 58.6W 21.9N 60.6W
A98E 18.4N 53.4W 18.9N 56.0W 20.0N 58.5W 21.5N 60.7W
LBAR 18.4N 53.4W 19.4N 55.7W 20.4N 57.8W 21.1N 59.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800 050802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 61.4W 24.3N 64.3W 24.7N 66.4W 24.9N 68.4W
BAMM 23.0N 62.6W 24.4N 65.6W 24.8N 68.0W 25.1N 70.4W
A98E 23.2N 63.1W 25.9N 67.3W 27.2N 70.2W 27.3N 71.5W
LBAR 21.8N 61.4W 22.4N 64.3W 22.9N 66.2W 23.7N 67.4W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 66KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.4N LONCUR = 53.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 17.1N LONM12 = 50.9W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 49.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Yeah the old center is dieing to the southwest. While this system is becoming better oreganized. There is nice curving forming...

[EDR1222]

It has definately started to look better this afternoon.

[WeatherEmperor]

my eyes arent very good at this so maybe you guys can help me out. But have the models slowly trended a bit further north or are they still showing a persistant turn back to the west?

<RICKY>

[DESTRUCTION5]

my eyes arent very good at this so maybe you guys can help me out. But have the models slowly trended a bit further north or are they still showing a persistant turn back to the west?

<RICKY>

Center was relocated north at 18z

[x-y-no]

my eyes arent very good at this so maybe you guys can help me out. But have the models slowly trended a bit further north or are they still showing a persistant turn back to the west?

<RICKY>

The initialization point has moved a fair bit north. It doesn't look like the model tracks have changed very much - if anything a little more westerly. But the new initialization of course shifts the whole track north.

[cycloneye]

my eyes arent very good at this so maybe you guys can help me out. But have the models slowly trended a bit further north or are they still showing a persistant turn back to the west?

<RICKY>

The two posters above said it right.More north the model position but same track.

[WeatherEmperor]

Thanks Destructions and x-y-no. Appreciate the help

<RICKY>

[mike18xx]

(...)

[cycloneye]

Graphic of the 18:00z Model Guidance.Notice that the BAM models curve back west at the end.

[WeatherEmperor]

Graphic of the 18:00z Model Guidance.Notice that the BAM models curve back west at the end.

Cycloneye, how come the UKMET is not fully shown on that map? And what happened to the GFDL?

<RICKY>

[mike18xx]

IMO, the 92L model init is flaky, the LLC is nowhere near northern arc of convection, and no new one is going to form there. The real deal is still at the west end of the curl-around, and currently near 17N, 58W, bearing nealr due west. All the junk in the northern arc should gust out and feed its energy into the west-end spiral.

[cycloneye]

Graphic of the 18:00z Model Guidance.Notice that the BAM models curve back west at the end.

Cycloneye, how come the UKMET is not fully shown on that map? And what happened to the GFDL?

<RICKY>

Frankly my friend I am clueless about GFDL and why UKMET shows that little.

[mike18xx]

On VIS, it's apparent the actual center of rotation is already nearly upon the northern islands.

[Derecho]

Frankly my friend I am clueless about GFDL and why UKMET shows that little.

I explained this in another thread; it's SFMWD screwing up. The supposed "UKMET" plot on the SFMWD map is actually the forecast track for the wave behind 93L taken from the UKMET Bracknell text guidance....and screwed up because they do it automatically.

If a TD or storm is actually numbered and named the Bracknell text guidance will list it under that header; however Bracknell IGNORES INVESTS and just lists stuff generically, causing the problems.

The UKMET does, and has for several runs, have a decent representation of 92L and shows its track out to 144 hours; below is 92L (it's the low NE of the Bahamas) at 144 hours.






Regarding the GFDL, it's not really designed for disorganized waves. It will routinely fail to depict them much at all.

[gkrangers]

On VIS, it's apparent the actual center of rotation is already nearly upon the northern islands.

17N, 59W ish?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 282114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 425 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Rashid]

the system is simply too weak for the GFDL to recognize and forecast...jusy my take.

In fact, if you look at the GFDL model runs on INVEST 92L - it only develops the system into a weak TS near the Bahamas at 126hours.

[Zadok]

I hope everybody in South Florida has there property sold! IMO

[Steve H.]

Get ready Luis.