92L Invest

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cycloneye
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92L Invest

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:28 am

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STEWART

A new thread as I promised with the 15 page limit. :)
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Jul 30, 2005 10:03 pm, edited 39 times in total.
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shaggy
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#2 Postby shaggy » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:35 am

hey luis long time no see what PR NWS saying bout the system?
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#3 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:39 am

woohoo! Thanks for the new thread Luis!
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#4 Postby jpigott » Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:22 am

you can definetly see a turning in the clouds just south of 20N in the most recent of visibile images
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#5 Postby mvtrucking » Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:35 am

Nice shot here,(Click on the system to zoom)


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
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#6 Postby shaggy » Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:58 am

looks like some sort of mid level spin developing around 19 N and 52W.Looks to be consolidating there and that may be the part that needs to be watched more closely for development.Going to be interesting to see what falls out with this one.
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#7 Postby Johnny » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:06 pm

Looking pretty healthy as of now. Where is this one supposed to be going? What's the best bet right now...G.O.M., East Coast or out to sea?
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#8 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:09 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Appears it may approach SE FL based off of MIA NWS and then possibly the GOM in a weaker state if it crosses SE FL. Just an educated guess though....
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#9 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:10 pm

I think its going to be hard to get into gulf when it is already this far north.. jmo
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#10 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:15 pm

If anywhere, i would say the east coast
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#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:16 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 1200 050729 0000 050729 1200 050730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.2N 52.4W 19.6N 54.6W 21.0N 56.3W 22.3N 57.8W
BAMM 18.2N 52.4W 19.4N 55.3W 20.5N 57.9W 21.7N 60.2W
A98E 18.2N 52.4W 19.0N 56.2W 20.5N 59.1W 22.5N 61.1W
LBAR 18.2N 52.4W 19.6N 54.9W 20.8N 57.5W 21.8N 59.6W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 41KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 1200 050731 1200 050801 1200 050802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.5N 59.3W 24.6N 61.6W 24.2N 63.5W 23.8N 65.0W
BAMM 22.9N 62.3W 24.6N 65.5W 24.8N 68.1W 24.8N 70.8W
A98E 24.8N 62.6W 28.8N 66.3W 30.8N 68.2W 31.2N 67.4W
LBAR 22.6N 61.4W 23.1N 64.0W 23.2N 65.8W 23.5N 66.7W
SHIP 55KTS 63KTS 67KTS 70KTS
DSHP 55KTS 63KTS 67KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.2N LONCUR = 52.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 333DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

The position changed from 16.4n now up to 18.2n at this 12:00z run.
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#12 Postby Ivanhater » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:18 pm

finally narrowing down our center
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#13 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:19 pm

Its only a matter of time
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#14 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:39 pm

listen guys I know the 12Z model runs are still very very early but it doesnt look very nice for the east coast especially FL.

<RICKY>
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#15 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:46 pm

a prelim estimation of mine is it could go through the florida straits....then WEST into the GOM
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#16 Postby BonesXL » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:47 pm

Well that part of the carribean hasn't seen to much action this season...so IMO the water temps in that area must be scorching....just more fuel....how does any future shearing look?
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#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:58 pm

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 7N57W 15N55W 22N52W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
WITH A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N55W. THIS WAVE IS FINALLY
SHAKING OFF THE ILL EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR THAT HAS LIMITED
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A BAND OF NUMEROUS
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EXPANDING TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 46W-55W AND OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS LOCATED W OF THE LOW FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 56W-59W.
THE BULK OF THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE N OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT THRU SAT...BUT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON SAT.AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING NE
OF THE TRPCL WAVE APPROACHING THE ISLANDS AS CONVECTION
INCREASES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE OUTFLOW JET IS
EXPANDING N AND E OF THE SYSTEM.

.
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#18 Postby chris_fit » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:03 pm

That's not a very informative discussion :roll:
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#19 Postby Swimdude » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:06 pm

chris_fit wrote:That's not a very informative discussion :roll:


No kidding! Doesn't even discuss the possibility of development...
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#20 Postby Frank2 » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:08 pm

Here is the link for the entire TWD:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1734.shtml?

note the comments under the Gulf of Mexico section - a Gulf cold front in July!

This TWD should help to calm some here - also note that the "low center" talked about so much here is at 16N 55W - and is absent of any convection, other than that northeast of the center. While the convection is forecast to move north of the islands, apparently the center isn't, so that should slow any intensification.

Frank
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