MIA NWS

[pavelbure224]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW NEAR 70W YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WEST
OVERNIGHT AND IS OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH HAS BUILT SOME SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO MOVE ABOUT OVER OUR
ZONES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS
MOTION WOULD KEEP THE DRYING AND SINKING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITIES TOMORROW. THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W SHOULD IMPACT US
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE DAY WE SEE THE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
OTHERWISE WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IS WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL IN THE OBSERVATIONS TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
VERY DIFFUSE BY TOMORROW. THEN BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TO OUR NORTH WITH THE WAVE COMING INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...STILL RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNTIL WE SEE THE APPROACH OF
THE WAVE. WILL STILL KEEP THE SPEEDS UNDER 15 KNOTS UNTIL WE HAVE A
BETTER INDICATION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE.

[BonesXL]

Interesting...hopefully, it will remain a tropical wave.

[Ivanhater]

not even a recurve scenario in that discussion

[Anonymous]

How can it recurve if the ridge builds back in?

[Ivanhater]

How can it recurve if the ridge builds back in?

im in your boat mike, i dont think it will recurve, im just saying they dont even mention it, which is interesting to say the least

[DESTRUCTION5]

How can it recurve if the ridge builds back in?

LOL..Floyd Man this better come west...I have confidence in you...

[Trader Ron]

Pretty Bold forecast out 96 hours.

[Frank2]

In reference to this wave, I must admit I'm a bit surprised at the strong TWO wording - it seems like some of the younger replacements at the NHC are a bit over-eager, considering the current visible loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html

notice that the convection remains stationary near 20N 55W, while the exposed wave continues rapidly westward.

Since Miles Lawrence is now retired (I was greatful to be at his retirement dinner), I can tell you that if he were on duty, he would have not given the wave as much credibility, and had written a much shorter TWO.

That's not to say that the current forecasters are inept, but, perhaps they are just not from the "old school" of being able to eyeball a system over strictly relying on what the computer model is saying, and perhaps is similar to what was said in the movie Twister, where Bill Harding states that the other storm chaser has the money and the technology, but not the instincts - something that is not taught in college.

Frank

[deltadog03]

imo...that tells me that the ridge will push it WEST...like the Florida straights

[dixiebreeze]

Pretty Bold forecast out 96 hours.

Ditto

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Tampa NWS (ruskin) has also insinuated that they believe the ridge will be building back in, albeit a little further north than it has been, but still causing anything coming along to head into Florida. They said the troughs will be retrograding westward to allow this as well.

[Rainband]

The good news is they say wave not sfc low.

[chris_fit]

Yea no mention of TC... just a wave.... let it stay that way.... haha naaaaaaaaaaaaa

[deltadog03]

read the latest TPC/HPC disscussion...don't count on it being only a wave

[HURRICANELONNY]

You have to read into the NWS forecasts. They usually are talking about surface observations when they talk about the High or Low moving back in. That is why the wave can't recurve because the surface winds will be from the east. If 92L forms then it's a whole nother story. When they say TUTT or upper low then they'll talking upper air disturbances.

[boca]

If 92L does develop wouldn't that cause the system to move poleward maybe up to the Carolina's rather than west into Florida.

[deltadog03]

If 92L does develop wouldn't that cause the system to move poleward maybe up to the Carolina's rather than west into Florida.

depends on the strength of the ridge...it will NOT plow right through it

[WeatherEmperor]

If 92L does develop wouldn't that cause the system to move poleward maybe up to the Carolina's rather than west into Florida.

why would it do that? Frances didnt move poleward when it was approaching FL so why should this thing? Doesnt it all depend on the strengh and positioning of the steering ridge?

<RICKY>