Question for Mike18xx on waves.

boca · #1 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:02 pm

Do you think 92L and 93L will be fish or to early to tell?

mike18xx · #2 Postby **mike18xx** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:12 pm

92L is very diffuse at present, and 93L looks like it's going to be cannibalized as it's relatively small and sandwiched in-between 92L and the next one off Africa. IMO, 92L is at least a day away from having anything resembling a concentrated center, and two days away from the possibility of TS. It could remain a broad, diffuse low for days before developing.

boca · #3 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:14 pm

thanks Mike18xx.

#4 Postby **fci** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:22 pm

mike18xx wrote:92L is very diffuse at present, and 93L looks like it's going to be cannibalized as it's relatively small and sandwiched in-between 92L and the next one off Africa. IMO, 92L is at least a day away from having anything resembling a concentrated center, and two days away from the possibility of TS. It could remain a broad, diffuse low for days before developing.

Or perhaps never develop at all.

mike18xx · #5 Postby **mike18xx** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:35 pm

The overwhelming majority of them don't -- which is why there aren't thirty hurricanes every year.

boca · #6 Postby **boca** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:43 pm

As posted in another thread of many 92L looks like its moving more NW due to lack of ridging or very weak ridging to its north.I think more and more this won't get past 70W.

#7 Postby **EDR1222** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:34 am

Still looking very unorganized this morning.

mike18xx · #8 Postby **mike18xx** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:40 am

The "center" of 92L, if you can call it that, is the tiny bit farther west, nearing the islands. IMO, it's at least another two days from TS.

It looks like total junk.

margaritabeach · #9 Postby **margaritabeach** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:51 am

mike18xx wrote:The "center" of 92L, if you can call it that, is the tiny bit farther west, nearing the islands. IMO, it's at least another two days from TS.

It looks like total junk.

Is there not another circulation trying to get established in the first convective blob up around 18N?

mike18xx · #10 Postby **mike18xx** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 11:21 am

margaritabeach wrote:Is there not another circulation trying to get established in the first convective blob up around 18N?

Not really. Those storms are firing along the boundary of the Saharan air layer (SAL) and southerly flow coming across the equator (and all of it swirling up in the back-wash behind the main SAL front which passed the same area about a day ago; the center of the swirling backwash is where any tropical system would form). The reason those storms are unlikely to generate a new center is that the SAL's deep easterly flow is extremely rapid, and is also dry -- so what happens is that instead of concentrating, there's lots of out-flow arcs zipping away.

The circled area below is 92L's axis of rotation:

Question for Mike18xx on waves.

Question for Mike18xx on waves.

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