WATS UP!! July 28, 2005

[dhweather]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Western Atlantic Tropical Summary - WATS UP on July 28, 2005

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/wats20050728.jpg">

What a difference a day makes!

We'll start in the southeast US, where a cold front is fighting to move
south. The front extends into the New England states, and has produced
a southwesterly flow that is moving Tropical Storm Franklin northeast, on
out to sea.

Two upper level lows, one in the Bahamas and the other a few hundred
miles northeast of Puerto Rico, are producing clouds and thunderstorms.
These will not develop into tropical cyclones. The ULL northeast of
Puerto Rico may influence the development of Invest 92L down the road.

Speaking of invest 92L, the system has gotten much more organized in
the last 24 hours. Instead of being a large semi-circle shaped wave with
an area of low pressure, 92L appears to be getting better organized
in the northern portion of the wave. There's improving outflow, as well as
significantly reduced dry air for 92L to fight off. How 92L interacts with
the ULL to its northwest will determine if it has a chance to develop.
That ULL is plowing south-southwest, and is beginning to affect 92L.
We'll watch this today to see how it plays out.

The extremely dry environment over the Caribbean is gradually shrinking
in size and moisture is returning to the region.


Comments welcomed!



David

[Rashid]

I agree that it has gotten much better organized relative to yesterday but it still has a lot to overcome. Inflow and outflow are poor in the southern half and as that upper low moves SW, it too will eventually hamper the disturbance's southern half.

[EDR1222]

Looks like it may be experiencing some shear. I am not sure if this is being caused by the upper level low, but looking at WV imagery this afternoon, it is closing in on it fairly quickly.

[dhweather]

It appears, in the latest loops, that the ULL has stopped digging south.

IF 92L can get past that ULL, then it's got somewaht favorable conditions for development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I should add there's more of a swirl in the area, around 19N 51W

[deltadog03]

that ULL is venting this invest right now...you can see it on the northern edge....

[Swimdude]

Hmmm 92L looks MUCH better now...