92L Invest up

Frank2 · #261 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:56 am

Re: Derecho's post

That's what happens when I'm typing at work - I meant the Navy, not AF (the Navy (and the NHC) does the classifying, and the AF does the Recon).

Believe me, other than that misque, I'm not confused - 92L is the system everyone has been excited about, but, after the Navy (yes, Navy) classified it on Wednesday, it has since merged with the ITCZ (click on the loop below - it is the system that ends in the last frame of the loop at 30W).

There is much -removed- going on here with the current Atlantic waves - none of which (except for the large disorganized blow up of convection on the northern end of the wave east of the islands, and is currently moving northwest towards the weakness in the ridge at 20N 50W) is very impressive at this time.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

#262 Postby **skysummit** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 8:58 am

OOooooooohhhh.....you said a dirty word. "-removed-"

#263 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:01 am

dixiebreeze wrote:Thanks, Luis. Not surprised. One to watch, I think.

why arent the GFDL and UKMET posted?

<RICKY>

Frank2 · #264 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:04 am

I don't like that word, either, but considering the excitment over the three poorly-defined systems (the blowup in convection east of the islands aside), I'd say that it fits the situation.

I think what is much more significant is the continued weakness in the ridge at 50W (which is currently pulling the large-amplitude wave and associated blowup in convection to the northwest) - this may make a drastic difference in what happens with the Cape Verde portion of the 2005 season.

Frank2

#265 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:08 am

Frank2 wrote:I don't like that word, either, but considering the excitment over the three poorly-defined systems (the blowup in convection east of the islands aside), I'd say that it fits the situation.

I think what is much more significant is the continued weakness in the ridge at 50W (which is currently pulling the large-amplitude wave and associated blowup in convection to the northwest) - this may make a drastic difference in what happens with the Cape Verde portion of the 2005 season.

Frank2

FAR to early to tell where 92 will go, as long as it stays underdeveloped it will continue on a westward track, and for the cape verde season, , again it all depends on when they develop and what latitude they come off

Anonymous · #266 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:12 am

Why would one weakness change the rest of the season? This system is being drawn north by the trough, but it will not catch it, so as the ridge builds back in, it shoots west.

Frank2 · #267 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:13 am

True, but, the weakness in the ridge continues to pull systems to the northwest - since it has been there since Emily passed the area (over 2 weeks), it might be the start of a long-term pattern, which often has made the difference in the outcome of past season.

Believe me, I have witnessed this many times - it's very possible that it is a long term pattern, which I believe Steve Lyons has already spoken about in the past week or two.

Frank

DESTRUCTION5 · #268 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:15 am

Frank2 wrote:True, but, the weakness in the ridge continues to pull systems to the northwest - since it has been there since Emily passed the area (over 2 weeks), it might be the start of a long-term pattern, which often has made the difference in the outcome of past season.

Frank

Frank your killing me man...92L ITCZ..LMAO

#269 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:15 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Why would one weakness change the rest of the season? This system is being drawn north by the trough, but it will not catch it, so as the ridge builds back in, it shoots west.

exactly, pattern shifts happen all the time

Anonymous · #270 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:15 am

Interesting...

In any case, weaknesses occur, such as the weakness that Frances missed, and was pushed back west. But...the ridge did not change for Ivan and Jeanne do to any weaknesses.

Frank2 · #271 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:17 am

I don't have time to argue - each person thinks what they want - but, in the end, I think you'll see what I referring to.

And if true, it's not a bad thing - the U.S. and other countries have enough to worry about without one natural disaster after another.

Frank

P.S. Note what I mentioned in my above post about Steve Lyons - he has mentioned the long-term pattern changes.

#272 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:18 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Why would one weakness change the rest of the season? This system is being drawn north by the trough, but it will not catch it, so as the ridge builds back in, it shoots west.

Yes, FB. As for "poorly defined" systems in another post (not yours), they almost always are in the beginning. I can recall some pretty strong 'canes that once were "poorly defined."

Anonymous · #273 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:24 am

Oh, I don't think we are looking at another Andrew...but we always need to be under the assumption we are. Plus...if model plots pan out, a 90 mph hurricane will be moving towards the Southeast United States...nasty.

#274 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:26 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Oh, I don't think we are looking at another Andrew...but we always need to be under the assumption we are. Plus...if model plots pan out, a 90 mph hurricane will be moving towards the Southeast United States...nasty.

ya, i noticed most of the models have it going wnw for a while then bending back toward the west near the end, so it seems like the ridge building back in is a strong possibility

Anonymous · #275 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:29 am

Yes...I have never really even thought of this being a fish. It was either...

1. Gonna stay weak and move west
2. Move west-northwest, miss the trough, shoot west.

I have always seen this as a potential US threat.

Website · #276 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:31 am

dixiebreeze wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:Why would one weakness change the rest of the season? This system is being drawn north by the trough, but it will not catch it, so as the ridge builds back in, it shoots west.

Yes, FB. As for "poorly defined" systems in another post (not yours), they almost always are in the beginning. I can recall some pretty strong 'canes that once were "poorly defined."

Andrew is the one I can remember... although I don't see this as being anything like that at all. I'm not even sold on development yet. Despite what you were saying, Harvey is not going to be here "very soon". Maybe this weekend at the earliest...

Thunder44 · #277 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 9:53 am

Frank2 wrote:Re: Derecho's post

That's what happens when I'm typing at work - I meant the Navy, not AF (the Navy (and the NHC) does the classifying, and the AF does the Recon).

Believe me, other than that misque, I'm not confused - 92L is the system everyone has been excited about, but, after the Navy (yes, Navy) classified it on Wednesday, it has since merged with the ITCZ (click on the loop below - it is the system that ends in the last frame of the loop at 30W).

There is much -removed- going on here with the current Atlantic waves - none of which (except for the large disorganized blow up of convection on the northern end of the wave east of the islands, and is currently moving northwest towards the weakness in the ridge at 20N 50W) is very impressive at this time.

Click on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html to view.

Frank

The system that ends at 30W on that loop is neither 92L or 93L. They are all west of that system.

Frank2 · #278 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:22 am

Look at the photo at the top of this thread, folks - the convective area southwest of the Cape Verde islands at that time (Tuesday, 7/26), was (was) classified as 92L, and if followed on the IR Meteosat Loop, is now part of the ITCZ at 10N 35W.

The 11:30 a.m. TWO will be out shortly, and should clarify things a bit...

Frank

#279 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:23 am

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN AND NEAR
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Things are turning more interesting as the system looks like it is organizing slowly.Recon for tommorow afternoon (If Necessary)

#280 Postby **Ivanhater** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:25 am

good time to start a new thread on this luis

92L Invest up

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