92L Invest up

[beachbum_al]

Maybe Harvey is behind it giving it a swift kick in the circulation.

[MortisFL]

I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Looks slightly better but whatever center there is is not where the convection is...

It's not going to be Harvey "very" soon.

Looks like the northern convection is where the center could develop in the future. Most t-storms it's had for awhile.

[boca]

Looks like 92L is moving more NW due to weak ridging to the north or lack of.These systems will be curvers.

[johngaltfla]

I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Looks slightly better but whatever center there is is not where the convection is...

It's not going to be Harvey "very" soon.

Looks like the northern convection is where the center could develop in the future. Most t-storms it's had for awhile.

And it appears to be tightening up. I would not be suprised to see a pressure estimate around 1005 mb by tommorrow at 1700.

[MortisFL]

92L starting to expand more.

[Huckster]

I am not so sure that it has started to move northwest as much as the northern part of the wave has become more active. I think that might be giving a false appearance here. The offending trough is still back over the U.S. as far as I can tell.

[abajan]

I haven't been able to get the TWO this morning but 92L sure looks close to TD stage to me.

[Thunder44]

I haven't been able to get the TWO this morning but 92L sure looks close to TD stage to me.

TPC doesn't seem to agree with you.:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 280929
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 575 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WHILE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED... THE
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER... SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

FORECASTER KNABB

[MortisFL]

NHC is looking at the northern convection as being enhanced by shear to its north.

[cycloneye]

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 22N52W 17N54W TO A 1013 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 15N54W TO 10N54W...MOVING WEST 20 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 47W AND 50W...AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 50W AND 54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELSEWHERE FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 58W. THIS WAVE SHOWS
UP QUITE WELL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT MAY REACH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR AT
LEAST POSSIBLY SOME OF THE SHOWERS TRAVELING WITH IT MAY REACH
THE ISLANDS BEFORE THE ACTUAL WAVE ARRIVES. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE EVENTUALLY MAY BECOME
THE MORE DOMINANT PART WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS SET TO REACH THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY...OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY INTO PUERTO RICO POSSIBLY LATE FRIDAY.
THE GFS MODEL THOUGH SUGGESTS THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
STAY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

8:05 AM Discussion of 92L.

[Frank2]

Hello Everyone:

The AF classified the system on Wednesday since it met the criteria of a developing wave, however, the wave has since merged with the ITCZ, and at least for the time being will probably drop below classification criteria, and will most likely will not be included in any other classification products.

Frank

P.S. The previous post does not discuss 92L, but the wave west of it (the text is from a portion of the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion - click on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml??tropsanal to view) - the remnants of 92L are currently shown to be near 10N 35W.

[Derek Ortt]

92L has become better organized overnight. However, a trough is dropping to tis NW, which will likely cause wind shear. Conditions do not seem to be as favorable to the west as anticipated

[dixiebreeze]

I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Like I said last night......

[Derecho]

Hello Everyone:

The AF classified the system on Wednesday since it met the criteria of a developing wave, however, the wave has since merged with the ITCZ, and at least for the time being will probably drop below classification criteria, and will most likely will not be included in any other classification products.

I haven't the foggiest idea of what you're talking about. The AF doesn't do any "classifying" in the Atlantic, and 92L, whatever it is, clearly hasn't merged with the ITCZ.

P.S. The previous post does not discuss 92L, but the wave west of it (the text is from a portion of the NHC Tropical Weather Discussion - click on http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml??tropsanal to view) - the remnants of 92L are currently shown to be near 10N 35W.

Again I haven't the foggiest idea of what you're talking about, likely due to your confusion of 92L and 93L. 92L IS the "wave west of it" and "it" (at 10N 35W) is 93L.

[jrod]

Looks like 92L flared up overnight. It still looks ragged and unorganized to me, to put it another way it is not close to being a depression.

[Derecho]

I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Like I said last night......

It's not even soon to be a depression. The morning QS showed it had no circulation. Early vis shows some weak turning to the south of the convection; the blowup you're seeing is basically caused by shear.

[Derek Ortt]

Derecho,

I think he may be referring to Dvorak classifications. AFWA still does Dvoraks on Atlantic systems

[EDR1222]

Convection looks to be increasing as of this morning, but still not much organization.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 1200 050729 0000 050729 1200 050730 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.4N 54.9W 17.5N 57.3W 18.7N 59.3W 20.1N 61.0W
BAMM 16.4N 54.9W 17.5N 57.4W 18.7N 59.6W 20.1N 61.4W
A98E 16.4N 54.9W 17.8N 58.5W 19.0N 61.3W 20.0N 63.8W
LBAR 16.4N 54.9W 17.8N 58.0W 19.1N 60.7W 20.3N 63.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 1200 050731 1200 050801 1200 050802 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.4N 62.6W 23.5N 65.0W 23.8N 66.8W 23.7N 68.6W
BAMM 21.5N 63.0W 23.6N 65.4W 24.3N 67.3W 24.7N 69.4W
A98E 21.1N 65.6W 23.0N 69.2W 24.6N 72.4W 26.3N 75.2W
LBAR 21.3N 65.1W 23.0N 68.3W 23.4N 70.4W 23.3N 71.5W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 73KTS 78KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.4N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 15.2N LONM12 = 50.9W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 47.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




12:00z Model Guidance

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks, Luis. Not surprised. One to watch, I think.