Intresting MM5

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GardenStateWx
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Intresting MM5

#1 Postby GardenStateWx » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:22 pm

Take a look at this..looks like it develops a few waves off Africa. Could get interesting soon folks.

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#2 Postby GardenStateWx » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:24 pm

and a few frames later...what is that in the gulf? :eek:

Image

lol im such a weenie tonight :lol:
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#3 Postby Normandy » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:28 pm

Looks like a Mardi Gras for NO.
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#4 Postby GardenStateWx » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:29 pm

im actually seriously wondering what that is. And what would make it develop so fast as it was approaching land? Something is screwy there.
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#5 Postby ericinmia » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:32 pm

The AirForce MM5 run also is putting that out, BUT....

It is well overdeveloped by the model. It will at most be some rain/wind.
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#6 Postby Swimdude » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:47 pm

Very strange... It's extremely rare that these models predict distict areas of pressure lower than 990 or so. And this one definately has in the GOM.
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#7 Postby Derecho » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:50 pm

I wouldn't take any version of the MM5 too seriously. It's a pretty old model. And seems to have a severe "boguscane" problem (development of non-existent tropical systems) a la the MRF of about 4-5 years ago.
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#8 Postby skysummit » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:51 pm

About the Gulf....I heard something earlier today about the possiblity of a trough or something hanging around in the gulf and a low pressure developing off the TX/LA coast then moving north.
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#9 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:03 am

Swimdude wrote:Very strange... It's extremely rare that these models predict distict areas of pressure lower than 990 or so. And this one definately has in the GOM.


It is rare for other models, not for the FSU MM5.

If it were to analyze a piece of vorticity over a swimming pool, it would bomb it out to a cat 5 in 120 hours...

Check out the 120 hour forecast from the 22nd

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

I would pull some earlier examples, alas, they are not up anymore.
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#10 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:27 am

Yeah..clfenwi said it pretty good. If its out there...MM5 will develope it.
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well

#11 Postby WXFIEND » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:34 am

MM5 is the only model showingthis and conditiosn aren't too favorable.. I'd take it with a grain of salt.
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#12 Postby Shoshana » Thu Jul 28, 2005 12:49 am

Am I the only one who sees 2 eyes a nose and a mouth blowing that storm into NO???? In the 2nd graph. And she's got a hat on too.
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Anonymous

#13 Postby Anonymous » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:38 am

The system the MM5 shows in the Gulf is the area that may drop down and stall out before coming in. Being the Gulf...in August...who knows.
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mike18xx

#14 Postby mike18xx » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:51 am

Basically, it's predicting another Hurricane Alicia -- an exceedingly RARE event. In fact, it's the only case I know of a non-tropical complex sliding off the US, going tropical, then coming back as a hurricane.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#15 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:53 am

mike18xx wrote:Basically, it's predicting another Hurricane Alicia -- an exceedingly RARE event. In fact, it's the only case I know of a non-tropical complex sliding off the US, going tropical, then coming back as a hurricane.


You must be talking about Danny 1997....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1997danny.html
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby Huckster » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:53 am

I am pretty sure Danny in 1997 did the same, but it was nowhere near as intense as Alicia.
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God lufode middaneard swa þæt he sealde his ancennedan Sunu, þæt nan ne forwurðe þe on hine gelyfð, ac hæbbe þæt ece lif. - Old English/Anglo-Saxon, John 3:16
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#17 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 28, 2005 1:57 am

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Alecia was a 115 mph cat3. But look at the overall season after the 1982/1983 el nino. Only 4 named storms. This year we have 7!!!
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#18 Postby Huckster » Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:01 am

It is amazing to compare this active streak since 1995 to many of the years of the 80's and early 90's. I know a lot of people thought things would pick up, but I wonder if anyone thought things would pick up this much.
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God lufode middaneard swa þæt he sealde his ancennedan Sunu, þæt nan ne forwurðe þe on hine gelyfð, ac hæbbe þæt ece lif. - Old English/Anglo-Saxon, John 3:16
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rainstorm

#19 Postby rainstorm » Thu Jul 28, 2005 5:29 am

GardenStateWx wrote:and a few frames later...what is that in the gulf? :eek:

Image

lol im such a weenie tonight :lol:


i noticed that too. the model is looking at us!!
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rainstorm

#20 Postby rainstorm » Thu Jul 28, 2005 5:32 am

SCARY STUFF!! whats going on? turn this model around and you can see a face on the gfs as well.

are the models predicting the ridge is alive?????

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr
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