Very weird LBar.......

[dixiebreeze]

on plot for Invest 93:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td93.php

[Huckster]

That one will verify for sure

[mike18xx]

What's weird?

[MWatkins]

on plot for Invest 93:

http://weather.net-waves.com/td93.php

Hi Dixie how are things going?

The LBAR model tends to be a good performer in the deep tropics...however...once it begins to interact with baroclinic systems...in other words...cold air aloft...it tends not to do very well because it can't resolve things properly in the steering level of the model.

It's hard to say for sure what is goofing up the LBAR in the extended period...exactly...but there is a pretty good upper low forecast to exist over the central Atlantic which could be causing a dramatic change in the vertically averaged pressure background in the 18Z guidance (the background for the 0Z LBAR)..notice at 96H the GFS depicts a cut-off low in the 250MB layer:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096m.gif

Which rapidly develops into an open dent in the upper ridge at t+120...24 hours from that time:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

Yes it's odd...but probably more an artifact of the rapid overdevelopment of the trough in the GFS in the upper levels late in the forecast period...and the overall inablity of the LBAR model to resolve these features well.

MW

[mike18xx]

It's gonna be a loooong 'nother three months with everyone getting excited twice a day over 5-to-7 day model-generated megastorms.

[MWatkins]

It's gonna be a loooong 'nother three months with everyone getting excited twice a day over 5-to-7 day model-generated megastorms.

I don't believe this is the issue here. In fact I don't believe you could be any further away than you currently are from the point of this thread. Dixie is pointing out...and I think quite fairly...an odd due north shift in the LBAR guidance. And no one in this thread is getting overly excited about it. It's just an observation...which has generated discussion...which is after all the point of a weather discussion board.

Unless I am too tired to see it...there is no mention of a megastorm anywhere in this thread. Perhaps you meant to reply to some other message?

MW

[Astro_man92]

the UKMET is really messed up to why is that

[mike18xx]

Unless I am too tired to see it...there is no mention of a megastorm anywhere in this thread. Perhaps you meant to reply to some other message?

You called it: I'd meant to post that in the "Interesting MM5" thread, where this was generating excitement: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//mm5fsu/2005072712//slp18.png

[dixiebreeze]

It's gonna be a loooong 'nother three months with everyone getting excited twice a day over 5-to-7 day model-generated megastorms.

I don't believe this is the issue here. In fact I don't believe you could be any further away than you currently are from the point of this thread. Dixie is pointing out...and I think quite fairly...an odd due north shift in the LBAR guidance. And no one in this thread is getting overly excited about it. It's just an observation...which has generated discussion...which is after all the point of a weather discussion board.

Unless I am too tired to see it...there is no mention of a megastorm anywhere in this thread. Perhaps you meant to reply to some other message?

MW

Hey Mike, good to talk to you. Thanks for the info and explanations. So happy you lend a voice of reason to S2K.

[mike18xx]

How many Mikes are on this place?

(It reminds me of the last "Axis & Allies" tourny I entered; I sat down to a table of five, the director asked "Mike....", and four heads swiveled.)