definently looking like a EC storm...(unless its a fish)
*EC as in somewhere from S. FL northward..lol*
92L Invest up
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cycloneye
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Abajan I think that UKMET line is for 93L. 
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. and it is way way off-
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cycloneye
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557
ABNT20 KNHC 280231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Note:The TWO for 93L is at the 93L thread.
ABNT20 KNHC 280231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.
A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Note:The TWO for 93L is at the 93L thread.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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dixiebreeze
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I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
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abajan wrote:cycloneye wrote:
The 00:00z models at graphic.
Why is the UKMET always doing something wacky?
It actually isn't. It's just a misplot/mistake on sfwmd.
You have to make a distinction between the actual UKMET model and the UKMET Bracknell text guidance; that's basically plotted by looking at the UKMET global model, but they don't actually make any connection to INVESTS themselves; they do list by named storms and TDs, but they don't list anything under INVEST numbers, just "NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS......"
Here's the 12Z UKMET Bracknell text guidance:
http://www.metoffice.com/sec2/sec2cyclo ... wtnt80.txt
What's actually plotted at sfmwd on the 92L map above is the track for the wave behind 93L.
If you look at the actual 12Z UKMET maps from today, on the 850 vorticity maps you can see 92L (becomes a weak elongated area of vorticity, 93L (just stays pretty weak) and the wave behind 93L represented in a non-wacky, realistic fashion.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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dixiebreeze wrote:I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
It really isn't in very good shape at all. there was no actual circulation on the afternoon QUIKSCAT pass and the blowup of convection on the N side was actually sort of caused by shear; there's actually quite a bit of shear over the N half of the wave.
It's not even remotely close to being a TD, much less a TS.
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Brent
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dixiebreeze wrote:I think our little 92L is very soon to be TS Harvey:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
Looks slightly better but whatever center there is is not where the convection is...
It's not going to be Harvey "very" soon.
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