RIDGE GONE, big trough over east

[rainstorm]

recurves seem likely for the foreseeable future

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

[vacanechaser]

I just herd Steve Lyons on the weather channel say the same thing.. "

The ridge is backing off and a trough is moving in and this will open a pathe for the east coast.. From Florida up the east coast for the next two systems in the Atlantic."

Will be our turn now...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

That looks like one heck of a strong Atlantic ridge all the way to 70W to me ... and kind of a wimpy trough in the east coast states.

Wouldn't take too much of the GFS's habitual underestimation of ridges to have that ridge extending all the way under that weak trough.

[Stormcenter]

I just herd Steve Lyons on the weather channel say the same thing.. "

The ridge is backing off and a trough is moving in and this will open a pathe for the east coast.. From Florida up the east coast for the next two systems in the Atlantic."

Will be our turn now...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Look out East coast.

[Anonymous]

Have to agree with you Jan. After what we have seen this year, I think underestimating the ridge is a mistake.

[x-y-no]

I just herd Steve Lyons on the weather channel say the same thing.. "

The ridge is backing off and a trough is moving in and this will open a pathe for the east coast.. From Florida up the east coast for the next two systems in the Atlantic."

Will be our turn now...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Well .. no argument there. I took "recurves" to mean fish.

I do think the EC from Florida up through the Carolinas are the next area of concern.

Jan

[rainstorm]

the east coast isnt getting hit with the trough there. it would have to be at least 400 miles further south ad west

[deltadog03]

just heard him say the same thing...thats the usual GFS throwing monkey wrenches out.....just yesterday they had a different look....i think the most likely thing to happen will me a piece of the northern trof will split and head SW'd....leaving a weakness over the mid south....i don't buy the trof east look.....

[rainstorm]

like someone else said, if that trough is centered over tennessee then its a different story. thats why i said the trough will have to be at least400 miles southwest. if the trough is over the northeast, its recurves 500 miles off shore

[Steve]

>>the east coast isnt getting hit with the trough there. it would have to be at least 400 miles further south ad west

Whether they do or do not, I don't go by what the GFS says 6 days out, especially when it comes to ridges and trofs. Check out the UKMET, ECMWF or possibly even the Canadian first for what is more likely to be the setup. The front will make it down to the Gulf and off the east coast, and then it's outta therel, which as strong as it is, I expect the ridging in its wake to be equally strong the other way. It's a timing issue (as usual).

Steve

[Steve]

Here's the 120 hour UKMET in comparison to the 144 hour GFS. Which one do you think is more likely to verify?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

Steve

[rainstorm]

well, im not sure what you expect me to say, except the ukmet seems like there is even a bigger trough right along the coast. recurves!!

[Steve]

LOL. But that's the initial. You have to advance it to 120 hours. There's a big low in the NE but the ridging stretches from Germany to Missouri.





Steve

[Agua]

recurves!!

Let's hope!!

[rainstorm]

and instead of the trough being centered over tn, like it needs to be, it seems to be centered over se canada

[rainstorm]

if the 120 hr map is right, the east coast is still safe, but fla isnt. its apparent twc is going with the gfs as they have the trough right over the east coast with rain all next week.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE
FAIRLY CLOSE ON OVERALL PATN OF DEEP MOIST SW FLOW IN MID/UPR LVLS
AND A STALLED BNDRY ACRS VA/NC FRI INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY NGT. HAVE AT
LEAST HI CHC POPS THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THUNDER LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT
LMTD (AND TEMPS FAIRLY COOL) FOR NW 1/2 CWA DURING THIS TIME AS FLOW
WILL BE ELY N OF THE BNDRY. FRONT LIFTS N BY MON NGT/THEN NEXT BNDRY
DROPS THRU TUE/TUE NGT. HAVE LWR CHC POPS MON/TUE ALTHOUGH DO NOT
EXPECT THE WIDESPRD RAINY PERIOD OF THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS BELOW
NRML...NEAR NRML BY NXT WED.

thats from the wakefield nws. they also see yet another front moving off the east coast this tuesday, so they dont see any ridge either

[Hurricaneman]

I hope these future storms recurve out to sea

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Me too. The US and Carribbean has experienced too many hurricane disasters in a year.

[jdray]

UKMET @ 120 hours is not good news for Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

120 hour UKMET may send everything right into Hatteras as thats where the weakness in the high is