Gulf Water Temperatures Rising

[HurryKane]

my pool is 91 but so far no signs of any tropical development

That's good. My mom had a tropical depression in hers. I called the Dyn-O-Mat guys over and fortunately, it dissipated.

Girl, I coulda done it a lot cheaper for you with a case of Depends.

[george_r_1961]

my pool is 91 but so far no signs of any tropical development

That's good. My mom had a tropical depression in hers. I called the Dyn-O-Mat guys over and fortunately, it dissipated.

I can see it now: "Tropical Storm Harvey Forms over Texas Swimming Pool, Warnings Issued"

[StormCircus]

I'm a relative newby to tracking hurricanes and tropical storms, but lately I've heard that the early season storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico has actually stirred up and cooled off waters of the Gulf of Mexico, therefore lessening the chance of continued activity for a while. On the other hand, ocean temps off of the eastern seaboard haven't been churned up as much and are very warm, so there's more of chance that storms will move toward the east coast. By reading some of your posts, it sounds to me like water is warm everywhere. Any thoughts on this?

[Steve]

Yeah, it's all relative. The Gulf is plenty hot enough to support anything. It's just that some of the latent heat energy has been removed due to the 6 named storms - but not that much of it. Remember, it's only July 25th. We were still a week out from Alex in 2004. So the Gulf EASILY has another month and a half (hottest part of summer for the Gulf Coast is usually August anyway) to boil for the next round.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

as we saw with Dennis, SST is NOT the important parameter. Instead, it is oceanic heat content. Does no good if we have 90 degree waters for the first 3-5 meters, if below we have the cold waters that are typical of the GOM

[dhweather]

Speaking of, lets take a peek at the 26 degree isotherm

<img src="http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005205god26.png">

Looks like were good to at least 30 meters in the eastern half of the GOM,
with areas well over 100 meters.

SST's are toasty as well:

<img src="http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005205gosst.png">

[baygirl_1]

dhweather-- i like that 26 degree isotherm graphic. i had not seen that before. have you, by chance, been watching it over time? if so, have the areas of warmer temps at greater depth been growing? or has it been pretty stable?

[lapeym]

Why is the water off the mouth of the Mississippi toasty? I don't think the river is a warm as the gulf, yet it seems there is absolutely no effect.

[Hurricaneman]

Amazingly toasty

[frankthetank]

Well up here on the Mississippi the current temp is in the low 80's , so i could only imagine it must be warmer down by the big easy..?

Heres the current temps on the Mississippi from various points north and south of La Crosse

: * WATER TEMPERATURES
:
: LAKE CITY M
: ALMA DAM 4 81
: ALMA 79
: MINNESOTA CITY 81
: WINONA DAM 5A 79
: TREMPEALEAU DAM 81
: LA CRESCENT DAM 81
: BROWNSVILLE 79
: GENOA DAM 8 80
: CLAYTON 83
: GUTTENBERG DAM 84

[frederic79]

There was a comment recently in an advisory on Emily...

WHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE
BEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE
PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD BE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

My question is this: Although typically buoy SST's represent oceanic heat content to a limited depth in the Gulf as Derek mentioned, could upwelling from two Catagory 4 hurricanes in July (unprecedented) cause the warmer surface layer to mix with the colder water down deep and eventually caused greater oceanic heat content in the affected areas?

Okay, back to the swimming pool (seriously). If I reach down to check the chlorine in water that has been sitting untouched, the top layer is warmer than the bottom layer. But if the kids have been swimming and mixing it up, it all feels like the same temperature, albeit slightly cooler.In the Gulf, we know 82 degrees F or so is sufficient in sustaining a major hurricane, so upwelling doesn't necessarily cool the water enough to prohibit this when the temps remain in the 80's at the surface. Simulaneously deeper, colder water is pulled to the surface and eventually warmed as warmer surface water goes deeper.
Does this idea hold water (pun intended)?

[frederic79]

On June 30, 2005, just before Cindy and Dennis, the average water temperature for 12 Gulf buoys was 84.8 degrees F. Today, July 25, less than one month later, the average water temperature is now 87.0 degree F.

-Just an update for July 27... same buoys using highest 24-hour temp data = 88.81 degree F average.

[dhweather]

dhweather-- i like that 26 degree isotherm graphic. i had not seen that before. have you, by chance, been watching it over time? if so, have the areas of warmer temps at greater depth been growing? or has it been pretty stable?

The NOAA link isn't working right now, but yes, the depth has increased
in the eastern GOM in the last month or so.

[Huckster]

Here are some other interesting maps...

Before Dennis, July 9th


The day after Dennis, July 11th


July 26th


If Dennis would have happened today, things might have been much worse.

[Hurricaneman]

Much worse, if Dennis happened now, it would be historical

[beachbum_al]

Quite toasty in the GOM. I don't think I want to even think of a storm getting in the GOM right now with those temps.