92L Invest up

[Anonymous]

Remember how Frances went from Invest 96 L in the Atlantic to 135 mph before the Islands? BTW...Uploading Video Update as I speak.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would absolutely not want to see this be a Frances repeat for Florida...I hope it slows down so that trough can curve it out to sea...

[deltadog03]

hey mike when is another video slated to hit the airways??

[dwg71]

Models develop this one turn it out to sea, I like it..

[Anonymous]

Models develop this one turn it out to sea, I like it..

Not really. You see all the time, like Andrew, Frances, Donna, ect...where the trough tries to catch it, the system pulls north, then as the ridge builds back, it shoots back west.

[Derecho]

Models develop this one turn it out to sea, I like it..

Not really. You see all the time, like Andrew, Frances, Donna, ect...where the trough tries to catch it, the system pulls north, then as the ridge builds back, it shoots back west.

Except with Andrew, none of the modern dynamical models turned Andrew out to sea at any point.

[dwg71]

I'm just going with the models right now, they seem to be in pretty good agreement on this run... but there is not much there for them to get a fix on so no weight is really given at this time. Just an observation..

[HURAKAN]

Not good for any kind of tropical development. Too much dry air.

[MGC]

I don't see any development out of this wave in the short term. Perhaps something might get going north of Cuba......MGC

[jrod]

***This is just my thoughts on the tropics today, nothing official and do not rely on this info for anything***


My thinking is in 48 hours or so when 92L(im lost on the numbers already) get to the same longitude as the islands it will flare up and the place to watch for a circulation will be to the north and east of the vortex of the swirl(the same area where the t-storms have been today). Right now there is too much dry air/SAL that has been pulled into it for any immediate development. If it weren't for the crazy season I would say this one wont develop. My intereptation of the models for this one show it finally developing north of Puerto Rico and eventually moving over the Florida penisula as a relativly weak but together system.

Those other waves behind it appear to have a much better chance and Ive seen a few models that develop them, the NOAA WW3 wave model suggests a possible hurricane in about 100hrs taking aim on the islands with seas over 20ft in the NE quadrant.

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/wna.anim.gif


Only time will tell.

[Anonymous]

Well, for the Florida system, we will see how strong it is. It may be nothing more than a Category One Hurricane, however the ships takes it up towards upper Cat 1 already, so time will tell.

[mike18xx]

92L finally appears to be contracting somewhat in waning daylight VIS.

[cycloneye]

407
ABNT20 KNHC 272120
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY. HOWEVER...
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN


Note: The 5:30 PM outlook for 93L is posted at the 93L thread.

[Hurricaneman]

Thanks for the update

[johngaltfla]

Models develop this one turn it out to sea, I like it..

Not really. You see all the time, like Andrew, Frances, Donna, ect...where the trough tries to catch it, the system pulls north, then as the ridge builds back, it shoots back west.

Ugh. That's not the kind of path alot of us want to see.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050728 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 0000 050728 1200 050729 0000 050729 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 51.0W 16.8N 53.5W 18.2N 55.5W 19.5N 57.1W
BAMM 15.5N 51.0W 16.6N 53.7W 17.9N 55.9W 19.2N 57.8W
A98E 15.5N 51.0W 16.2N 53.8W 17.5N 56.5W 19.2N 58.3W
LBAR 15.5N 51.0W 17.0N 53.7W 18.4N 56.1W 19.4N 58.3W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 0000 050731 0000 050801 0000 050802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.9N 58.6W 23.2N 61.0W 23.9N 62.8W 23.8N 64.5W
BAMM 20.5N 59.4W 23.1N 62.3W 24.7N 64.4W 25.8N 66.3W
A98E 21.3N 59.9W 25.6N 63.6W 28.6N 66.2W 29.2N 66.0W
LBAR 20.4N 60.1W 22.3N 63.4W 23.0N 66.3W 23.3N 67.8W
SHIP 43KTS 53KTS 59KTS 62KTS
DSHP 43KTS 53KTS 59KTS 62KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 51.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 47.2W DIRM12 = 311DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 44.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Interesting that the LLC is closer to the area of convection near 16/18 north. This means that the top of the low is trying to develop. Which means that it will likely move northwestward. This will likely develop but slowly as it slits the the northwest. Kind of like the wave that developed Danny 2003. The southern part should move into the Caribbean or the northern part of it.

[shaggy]

AIRMASS CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA BY DAY 7 AS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.


from HPC long range discussion something interesting down the road maybe?

[gkrangers]

AIRMASS CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED S OF FRONT...WITH AN INCREASE IN RAIN OVER THE FL
PENINSULA BY DAY 7 AS TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.


from HPC long range discussion something interesting down the road maybe?

Well they are referring to 92L. It could approach Florida in a week..but don't know if it'll be a cyclone or wave.

[cycloneye]

The 00:00z models at graphic.