93L Invest up

#61 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:21 am

ABNT20 KNHC 271518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Note: About the TWO for 92L you can find it at the 92L thread.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #62 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:38 am

Skysummit thank you for the plots

Sanibel · #63 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:58 am

SAL rejects...

Derecho · #64 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 12:34 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I don't get where the nhc gets there thinking this morning. The system looks very good with a tighter core developing. The convection is starting to move over the center. The outflow over the southwestern side reminds me of some of the more powerful cape verde storms at this point in there lifes.

This thing looks fairly awful at the moment.

#65 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:47 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:Skysummit thank you for the plots

You're welcome!

#66 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:55 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 1800 050728 0600 050728 1800 050729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.7N 32.8W 11.7N 35.4W 11.6N 38.0W 11.5N 40.7W
BAMM 11.7N 32.8W 11.8N 35.0W 11.6N 37.4W 11.6N 40.0W
A98E 11.7N 32.8W 11.9N 35.0W 12.2N 37.6W 12.6N 40.3W
LBAR 11.7N 32.8W 11.8N 35.3W 11.8N 38.0W 11.7N 41.0W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.6N 43.4W 12.2N 49.0W 13.2N 54.0W 14.2N 58.2W
BAMM 11.8N 42.9W 13.0N 48.7W 14.7N 53.8W 16.4N 57.9W
A98E 12.7N 43.1W 13.9N 48.0W 14.8N 52.8W 16.1N 57.3W
LBAR 11.6N 44.3W 11.5N 50.8W 12.8N 56.8W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 37KTS 38KTS 38KTS
DSHP 31KTS 37KTS 38KTS 38KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.7N LONCUR = 32.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 30.7W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 28.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

No tropical storm at this run.

#67 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 4:24 pm

407
ABNT20 KNHC 272120
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Note: The 5:30 Outlook for 92L is posted at the 92L thread.

johngaltfla · #68 Postby **johngaltfla** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 6:18 pm

Interesting model runs.....

#69 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:44 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050728 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050728 0000 050728 1200 050729 0000 050729 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 34.2W 10.9N 36.9W 10.7N 39.6W 10.5N 42.3W
BAMM 11.0N 34.2W 10.9N 36.4W 10.6N 38.7W 10.5N 41.3W
A98E 11.0N 34.2W 10.7N 36.8W 10.8N 39.7W 11.1N 42.6W
LBAR 11.0N 34.2W 10.9N 36.9W 10.8N 39.9W 10.6N 43.0W
SHIP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 28KTS
DSHP 20KTS 21KTS 23KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050730 0000 050731 0000 050801 0000 050802 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 44.9W 11.1N 50.2W 12.4N 54.4W 14.0N 58.2W
BAMM 10.6N 44.0W 11.4N 49.2W 13.3N 53.6W 15.5N 57.1W
A98E 11.0N 45.4W 11.9N 50.7W 12.6N 55.5W 14.1N 59.9W
LBAR 10.6N 46.3W 10.6N 52.3W 11.2N 57.4W 17.8N 58.6W
SHIP 33KTS 41KTS 44KTS 47KTS
DSHP 33KTS 41KTS 44KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 34.2W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 31.8W DIRM12 = 262DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Hurricaneman · #70 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:46 pm

The now seem to be a little more bullish on this system

canejacket · #71 Postby **canejacket** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:20 pm

is it just me or does it look like 93L is just about done for? Also it doesn't really look like there's going to be a 94L.

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:33 pm

The 00:00z run at graphic.I dont have a clue about what LBAR model is doing there. :roll:

Hurricaneman · #73 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:37 pm

i would go with th bam models

#74 Postby **EDR1222** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:22 pm

The L-Bar model is definately strange. 93L may have the best chance if the dry air is gone by the time is gets closer to the Lesser Antilles.

#75 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:37 pm

KNHC 280231
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Note:The Tropical Weather Outlook for 92L is at the 92L thread.

Swimdude · #76 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:43 pm

The XTRAP model. Why's it so spastic? It's NEVER going along with the others.

Derecho · #77 Postby **Derecho** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 11:47 pm

Swimdude wrote:The XTRAP model. Why's it so spastic? It's NEVER going along with the others.

Taking into consideration you might be kidding (jokes about the "XTRAP model" are an old standard)..

It's not a model. It's short for "Extrapolated"...it's just a straight line extension of the recent movement of the system.

#78 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 10:30 am

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 360 MILES NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND
ABOUT 645 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

#79 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 4:20 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 282114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 395 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AND ABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

For the TWO about 92L see the 92L thread.

#80 Postby **Cookiely** » Thu Jul 28, 2005 6:56 pm

Are they referring to 92L? It doesn't sound like they think its going to strengthen. Sorry posted it in the wrong thread.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW NEAR 70W YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WEST
OVERNIGHT AND IS OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS TODAY. THE UPPER RIDGE TO
ITS NORTH HAS BUILT SOME SO WOULD EXPECT IT TO MOVE ABOUT OVER OUR
ZONES BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THIS
MOTION WOULD KEEP THE DRYING AND SINKING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO
THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE
PROBABILITIES TOMORROW. THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W SHOULD IMPACT US
ON MONDAY. THIS WOULD BE THE DAY WE SEE THE DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE.
OTHERWISE WHAT WE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IS WHAT IS IN THE FORECAST.
THE SURFACE TROUGH IS STILL IN THE OBSERVATIONS TODAY BUT SHOULD BE
VERY DIFFUSE BY TOMORROW. THEN BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK TO OUR NORTH WITH THE WAVE COMING INTO THE AREA
ON MONDAY. WE WILL REMAIN IN AN EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST.

&&

93L Invest up

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