Possible Gulf Development Next Week and Ridge Uncertainties

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

NWS Ruskin (Tampa) seems to outline well the upcoming uncertainties with regards to the ridges and troughs that may be setting up for next week. They even indicate the possibility of something forming in the Gulf next week...

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT - TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. PATTERN STARTS OFF WITH
LONGWAVE TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT
VORT MAXES WRAPPING AROUND SOUTHERN BASE OF TROF. A BIT UNUSUAL FOR
LATE JULY. SOME MODELS INDICATING SOUTHERN LOW CLOSING OFF WHILE
OTHER KEEP IT OPEN. SFC FRONT/TROF STALLS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SOME
MODELS TRY TO DEV SFC LOW ALONG FRONT IN NE GULF. EITHER WAY...FL
PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN SW FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
HIGH END SCT POPS WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT UPPER TO SFC RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE IN OVER THE
AREA FROM THE W ATLANTIC WHILE TUT LOW AND SFC LOW APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NE CARIB. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN ALL THESE DEVELOPING FEATURES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
OUTPUT NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS...SO WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE FCST
ONGOING.
&&

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks for the update, TIFG.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

You're welcome Dixie.

As much as people like to bash Ruskin, I think they are actually pretty good in that they do present a lot of the "what if's" and "maybe's" that many other discussions won't show. They go out on a limb and will offer differing opinions based on what they see possible, not just the "official" NHC version of things, though they definately point out the NHC version and fully explain why, if at all, they may differ for local forecasts. By the same token, they are quick to admit if they were wrong and will change the direction they may have initially been taking on something if they feel the need to - as soon as they need to, not holding on to a forecast until it is so obvious it won't work just for ego purposes. They explain their thinking. Bottom line, I like 'em!

[Stormcenter]

NWS Ruskin (Tampa) seems to outline well the upcoming uncertainties with regards to the ridges and troughs that may be setting up for next week. They even indicate the possibility of something forming in the Gulf next week...

.LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT - TUE)...LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF FEATURES. PATTERN STARTS OFF WITH
LONGWAVE TROF FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH SIGNIFICANT
VORT MAXES WRAPPING AROUND SOUTHERN BASE OF TROF. A BIT UNUSUAL FOR
LATE JULY. SOME MODELS INDICATING SOUTHERN LOW CLOSING OFF WHILE
OTHER KEEP IT OPEN. SFC FRONT/TROF STALLS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SOME
MODELS TRY TO DEV SFC LOW ALONG FRONT IN NE GULF. EITHER WAY...FL
PENINSULA TO REMAIN IN SW FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR
HIGH END SCT POPS WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE NATURE COAST EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. AFTER THAT UPPER TO SFC RIDGE TRIES TO NOSE IN OVER THE
AREA FROM THE W ATLANTIC WHILE TUT LOW AND SFC LOW APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE NE CARIB. THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY
IN ALL THESE DEVELOPING FEATURES. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
OUTPUT NEAR CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS...SO WILL KEEP CONSERVATIVE FCST
ONGOING.
&&

JB has some of the same thoughts this morning concerning "homegrown" development possibly in the NW GOM but not the NE GOM sometime next week.

[skysummit]

Hmm....NW GOM development means rain for the entire norther Gulf Coast. My wife's cousin is coming down from California next weekend. Wouldn't it be a nice welcome gift for some tropical development to be stirring? j/j

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Speaking of JB, does he give any clues to what he thinks our newest wave train may be getting ready to do?

Personally, I think 92L will be a tough one to get going and will ultimately go fishy.

93L will take a more southerly route and be a GOM issue.

The next wave I think will not be 94L until it gets near 60W and will be a Carolina concern.

This is based on simply what I think the ridge and trough setup will be by the time these critters get to our side of the pond.

[HouTXmetro]

In what direction do these 'home grown' storms generally move? Particularly ones formed from old fronts.

[jasons2k]

In what direction do these 'home grown' storms generally move? Particularly ones formed from old fronts.

It all depends on the same things that can influence the movement of any storm, whether it's home grown or not.

The ? for the NW gulf this weeekend is projected to move back "inland" over Texas according to NWS Houston. They did not specifty a direction but just a glance at the charts indictates it would move northward or NNW.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Typically these home grown systems seem to go towards the north and east when they are created by stalled fronts over the gulf, but that is also do to the fact that when they often form, the weather pattern has a bunch of fronts moving across the northern gulf from west to east. -and high pressure to the east of any front causing stirring currents ahead of any front to be usually towards the north or northeast.
But this being an atypical year, they could do anything!

Plus, ANYTHING in the gulf, if not given good stirring currents and moving slow (less than 6 kts) has always proved extremely difficult to forecast and can do loopty loops if it sees fit before finally headin somewhere!

[Stormcenter]

Speaking of JB, does he give any clues to what he thinks our newest wave train may be getting ready to do?

Personally, I think 92L will be a tough one to get going and will ultimately go fishy.

93L will take a more southerly route and be a GOM issue.

The next wave I think will not be 94L until it gets near 60W and will be a Carolina concern.

This is based on simply what I think the ridge and trough setup will be by the time these critters get to our side of the pond.

If I understood him correctly he actually thinks 92L will make it into the GOM.

[jasons2k]

Speaking of JB, does he give any clues to what he thinks our newest wave train may be getting ready to do?

Personally, I think 92L will be a tough one to get going and will ultimately go fishy.

93L will take a more southerly route and be a GOM issue.

The next wave I think will not be 94L until it gets near 60W and will be a Carolina concern.

This is based on simply what I think the ridge and trough setup will be by the time these critters get to our side of the pond.

If I understood him correctly he actually thinks 92L will make it into the GOM.

JB has not said that.

[Ivanhater]

Speaking of JB, does he give any clues to what he thinks our newest wave train may be getting ready to do?

Personally, I think 92L will be a tough one to get going and will ultimately go fishy.

93L will take a more southerly route and be a GOM issue.

The next wave I think will not be 94L until it gets near 60W and will be a Carolina concern.

This is based on simply what I think the ridge and trough setup will be by the time these critters get to our side of the pond.

If I understood him correctly he actually thinks 92L will make it into the GOM.

JB has not said that.

yes he did, read thread jb and 92L

[jasons2k]

sorry have not seen today's video, just going by his early AM column which said 1st system off the wave train would be near the Bahamas this weekend, but he did not specify that as being 92L. maybe video has new take on things...

[Ivanhater]

sorry have not seen today's video, just going by his early AM column which said 1st system off the wave train would be near the Bahamas this weekend, but he did not specify that as being 92L. maybe video has new take on things...

its ok, ya, he was pretty straight forward on 92l, it was interesting to say the least

[KatDaddy]

Yep Joe B says 92L is Gulf bound. The wave as a nice signature and covers a large area. For some reason I more concerned about this one and the Upper TX Coast. Just a feeling.

[jasons2k]

Yep Joe B says 92L is Gulf bound. The wave as a nice signature and covers a large area. For some reason I more concerned about this one and the Upper TX Coast. Just a feeling.

I'll be watching it too, but right now most interested in what happens with leftover piece of trough in GOM over the weekend...that was how A---- started....

[HouTXmetro]

Yep Joe B says 92L is Gulf bound. The wave as a nice signature and covers a large area. For some reason I more concerned about this one and the Upper TX Coast. Just a feeling.

I'll be watching it too, but right now most interested in what happens with leftover piece of trough in GOM over the weekend...that was how A---- started....

LOL, I'm glad you didn't mention her name. No one is allowed to speak of her around here.

[dwg71]

Yep Joe B says 92L is Gulf bound. The wave as a nice signature and covers a large area. For some reason I more concerned about this one and the Upper TX Coast. Just a feeling.

92L has about 10,000 miles to get to the upper texas coast. It has a long ways to go as far as development and real estate to threaten any part of US mainland.

[Ivanhater]

Yep Joe B says 92L is Gulf bound. The wave as a nice signature and covers a large area. For some reason I more concerned about this one and the Upper TX Coast. Just a feeling.

I'll be watching it too, but right now most interested in what happens with leftover piece of trough in GOM over the weekend...that was how A---- started....

LOL, I'm glad you didn't mention her name. No one is allowed to speak of her around here.

are yall talking about allison???

[swimaster20]

Yep Joe B says 92L is Gulf bound. The wave as a nice signature and covers a large area. For some reason I more concerned about this one and the Upper TX Coast. Just a feeling.

I'll be watching it too, but right now most interested in what happens with leftover piece of trough in GOM over the weekend...that was how A---- started....

LOL, I'm glad you didn't mention her name. No one is allowed to speak of her around here.

are yall talking about allison???

shhhhhhhhh!!!!!!