92L Invest up

stormandan28 · #181 Postby **stormandan28** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:22 am

if 92L developes it may get close to Puerto Rico but after that it looks like the west end of th high pressure weakens so maby a east coast storm :?:

#182 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:26 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050727 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 1200 050728 0000 050728 1200 050729 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 45.7W 12.0N 48.8W 13.5N 51.2W 14.8N 53.1W
BAMM 10.6N 45.7W 12.0N 48.3W 13.4N 50.7W 14.8N 52.8W
A98E 10.6N 45.7W 11.4N 48.5W 12.3N 51.1W 13.6N 53.7W
LBAR 10.6N 45.7W 11.8N 48.7W 13.3N 51.8W 14.7N 54.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 1200 050730 1200 050731 1200 050801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 54.7W 17.4N 58.2W 18.6N 61.5W 19.1N 65.2W
BAMM 15.9N 54.5W 17.6N 57.8W 18.6N 61.1W 19.1N 64.7W
A98E 15.3N 56.0W 18.4N 60.9W 21.8N 65.0W 25.5N 67.5W
LBAR 15.9N 57.0W 18.3N 61.0W 19.9N 63.5W 20.7N 65.2W
SHIP 44KTS 57KTS 66KTS 73KTS
DSHP 44KTS 57KTS 66KTS 73KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 45.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 40.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#183 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:28 am

The models are still not looking in the right place. No way development would occur on the lower trailing edge of a wave. Take a look at the latest visible image and you'll clearly see it wrapping up around 15N/48W

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey1.gif">

stormandan28 · #184 Postby **stormandan28** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:30 am

Cyclone do you think the ridge will stay strong on the west side to allow this more towards the gulf but reason I ask this the gfs model shows it in the Bahamas and the ridge looks weak to its north :?:

#185 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:32 am

57 then why they keep iniciating well down now at 12:00Z at 10.6n-45.7w?

#186 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 7:32 am

wxman57 wrote:The models are still not looking in the right place. No way development would occur on the lower trailing edge of a wave. Take a look at the latest visible image and you'll clearly see it wrapping up around 15N/48W

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/harvey1.gif">

that is a very broad center, needs to consolidate more

DESTRUCTION5 · #187 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:11 am

92L is flying way to fast IMO to develop...

Looks like a 30 MPH clip...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Nimbus · #188 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 8:46 am

Its pretty far north but since it is moving so fast it may track into the gulf.
Depends on where the system starts to intensify and slow down along with the ridge orientation in a few days.

#189 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:00 am

Incredibly good post time-flow!!! It is what I have said for years. Your's is just so much more eloquent than anything I have posted. As you said, it is almost a "sickness" we have, and if you have ever lived through one and experienced the aftermath of a deadly Hurricane, you would not wish it on your worst enemy.

I have to agree with 57 on the initialization at this point. As/if this invest develops, it appears it could be more of a threat to the East coast with a weakness in the ridge expected to develop over the next few days. It will definitley be interesting to watch also due to the speed factor if it continues at a good clip which could effect final destination also. What is out ahead of it to slow it down?

jrod · #190 Postby **jrod** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:26 am

No way this thing will develop in the next 36 hours. Theres just too much dry air/SAL around it. As long as that stays this feature will be nothing more than a tropical wave.

#191 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:29 am

Which Invest is this?

#192 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:30 am

skysummit wrote:Which Invest is this?

92L,93L are in that pic.

HurryKane · #193 Postby **HurryKane** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:30 am

skysummit wrote:Which Invest is this?

<snip big picture>

Ok, please to be sharing your kmz file that overlays the model plots? Pretty please?

mahicks · #194 Postby **mahicks** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:33 am

HurryKane wrote:
skysummit wrote:Which Invest is this?

<snip big picture>

Ok, please to be sharing your kmz file that overlays the model plots? Pretty please?

DITTO for me PLEASE

#195 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:37 am

mahicks wrote:
HurryKane wrote:
skysummit wrote:Which Invest is this?

<snip big picture>

Ok, please to be sharing your kmz file that overlays the model plots? Pretty please?

DITTO for me PLEASE

Sure...I got it from a message Senorpepr wrote earlier in this topic.

You can get it here.....

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=51227

#196 Postby **skysummit** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 9:41 am

skysummit wrote:
mahicks wrote:
HurryKane wrote:
skysummit wrote:Which Invest is this?

<snip big picture>

Ok, please to be sharing your kmz file that overlays the model plots? Pretty please?

DITTO for me PLEASE

Sure...I got it from a message Senorpepr wrote earlier in this topic.

You can get it here.....

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/download.php?Number=51227

If you need the enhanced satellite file, you can get it here....
http://www.googleearthhacks.com/dlfile494/Global-Infrared-Satellite-Images.htm

#197 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 10:19 am

ABNT20 KNHC 271518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 265 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER STEWART

Note: The TWO for 93L can be found at the 93L thread.

#198 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:51 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 1800 050728 0600 050728 1800 050729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 48.8W 13.6N 51.5W 15.2N 53.6W 16.6N 55.2W
BAMM 12.2N 48.8W 13.4N 51.4W 14.9N 53.8W 16.3N 55.6W
A98E 12.2N 48.8W 13.5N 51.8W 14.7N 54.6W 15.9N 57.1W
LBAR 12.2N 48.8W 13.6N 51.9W 15.2N 54.8W 16.6N 57.3W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 56.6W 20.0N 59.3W 21.3N 61.1W 22.8N 62.5W
BAMM 17.7N 57.2W 20.0N 60.1W 21.7N 62.2W 23.3N 64.0W
A98E 17.4N 59.3W 20.3N 63.7W 23.2N 67.4W 25.4N 69.8W
LBAR 17.9N 59.5W 20.3N 62.9W 21.9N 65.1W 22.8N 66.4W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 48.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Ship has it as a hurricane north of the islands.

#199 Postby **dhweather** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:53 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050727 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 1800 050728 0600 050728 1800 050729 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 48.8W 13.6N 51.5W 15.2N 53.6W 16.6N 55.2W
BAMM 12.2N 48.8W 13.4N 51.4W 14.9N 53.8W 16.3N 55.6W
A98E 12.2N 48.8W 13.5N 51.8W 14.7N 54.6W 15.9N 57.1W
LBAR 12.2N 48.8W 13.6N 51.9W 15.2N 54.8W 16.6N 57.3W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 29KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800 050801 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.9N 56.6W 20.0N 59.3W 21.3N 61.1W 22.8N 62.5W
BAMM 17.7N 57.2W 20.0N 60.1W 21.7N 62.2W 23.3N 64.0W
A98E 17.4N 59.3W 20.3N 63.7W 23.2N 67.4W 25.4N 69.8W
LBAR 17.9N 59.5W 20.3N 62.9W 21.9N 65.1W 22.8N 66.4W
SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 48.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 45.6W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 9.7N LONM24 = 42.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Ship has it as a hurricane north of the islands.

Is Ship related to Naso? :lol:

cinlfla · #200 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Jul 27, 2005 1:54 pm

SHIP 48KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS
DSHP 48KTS 65KTS 76KTS 82KTS

Umm I'm not so sure about that, but of course I'm going based on the way it looks at the moment.

92L Invest up

I think

what do you think

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