Scary quote from NWS San Juan

[cycloneye]

TWO TROPICAL
WAVES BEHIND THE WAVE AT 46W SHOW DECENT CYCLONIC ROTATION AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UNFORTUNATELY...SST`S ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
ALL THE WAY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA...AND THE CAPE VERDE SEASON IS NOW OPEN. ALL WAVES EXITING
AFRICA FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STAY TUNED

The above is part of the Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Juan.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Is safe to say that the CV season is opening it's gates more early than normal.

[bvigal]

Good morning, Luis!!

I thought very good discussion this morning, glad he mentioned their thinking at NWS-SJU re: upcoming weather. 92L still worth watching, entering this big puddle of warm water east of the islands!

This trough bringing us rain today was split off from wave a couple days ago. Think we'll get enough rain to break this heat today? One can only hope.

Have a great day!!

[KatDaddy]

Hey Cyclone another ominious statement from the 2:05AM TWD

IT SEEMS LIKE
EVERY WAVE RECENTLY HAS BEEN A CANDIDATE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST RATHER THAN LATE IN JULY.

This season is just amazing so hold on tight down there

[Aquawind]

Pretty much as expected..were ahead of schedule for the SST's and the ITCZ has been active. Not good for the islands or anyone else for that matter. We will be dreaming for a that "weakeness in the ridge" verbage for the next few months.

Paul

[Derek Ortt]

there is nothing even remotely looking like it will form now

regardless as to how favorable the other parameters are, if we have a SAL like we currently have, we get nothing

[vbhoutex]

there is nothing even remotely looking like it will form now

regardless as to how favorable the other parameters are, if we have a SAL like we currently have, we get nothing

OH DARN!!!!! [b]NOT!!!!![/b]LOLOL!!!!!

[cycloneye]

Yes there is SAL but is mainly to the north of the MDR area as seen in graphic not affecting very much the waves 93L and wave behind that one right now in the atlantic except for the wave at 46w which still has some of that mixed in.

[johngaltfla]

TWO TROPICAL
WAVES BEHIND THE WAVE AT 46W SHOW DECENT CYCLONIC ROTATION AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UNFORTUNATELY...SST`S ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
ALL THE WAY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA...AND THE CAPE VERDE SEASON IS NOW OPEN. ALL WAVES EXITING
AFRICA FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STAY TUNED

The above is part of the Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Juan.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Is safe to say that the CV season is opening it's gates more early than normal.

Holy Flirkinschmidt! I am now more convinced than ever we might see a Cat 5 superstorm this season. Not neccisarily landfalling, but out there....

[bvigal]

I have a question about the SAL map... if I go by the red colors, it looks like the Pacific is evenly covered with dust, except in ITZ. Is that true?

Also, per our dust ending... I am starting to see St. Thomas now, which has been invisible for several days, only 8 miles away!

What makes me watch these lows/waves very closely is the realization we are sitting just west of a wad of HOT WATER. This presents the very real possibility we could encounter a storm of a tropical nature with no more than 2 days lead time to hunker down.

[msbee]

good morning Luis
thanks for positng that discussion ..I think!
it's not exaclty news I was eagerly anticipating.
I agree about the SAL....It seems to be lifting somewhat and it does seem to be more North and certainly not much affecting 93L.
as always, we will be watching and waiting.
and, of course, as we near August, it is a more nervous time for those of us in the islands.

[Derek Ortt]

actually,

that SAL is very similar to the type that has put a lid on development in the past

92L is wrapping it into the center, its done. Its right on top of 93L, its also likely done, at least until it moves farther west

[Trader Ron]

TWO TROPICAL
WAVES BEHIND THE WAVE AT 46W SHOW DECENT CYCLONIC ROTATION AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UNFORTUNATELY...SST`S ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
ALL THE WAY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA...AND THE CAPE VERDE SEASON IS NOW OPEN. ALL WAVES EXITING
AFRICA FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STAY TUNED

The above is part of the Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Juan.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Is safe to say that the CV season is opening it's gates more early than normal.

Why does the NWS San Juan mention waves for the next THREE months? Doesn't the CV season end around September 30th?

[cycloneye]

TWO TROPICAL
WAVES BEHIND THE WAVE AT 46W SHOW DECENT CYCLONIC ROTATION AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UNFORTUNATELY...SST`S ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM
ALL THE WAY TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA...AND THE CAPE VERDE SEASON IS NOW OPEN. ALL WAVES EXITING
AFRICA FOR THE NEXT 3 MONTHS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STAY TUNED

The above is part of the Area Forecast Discussion NWS San Juan.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=0

Is safe to say that the CV season is opening it's gates more early than normal.

Why does the NWS San Juan mention waves for the next THREE months? Doesn't the CV season end around September 30th?

There is a little peak in the first 2 weeks of october that can include very late systems moving from the Tropical Atlantic Westward.For example here in Puerto Rico since 1508 eight systems haved made landfall in october not many but has occured.

[DESTRUCTION5]

actually,

that SAL is very similar to the type that has put a lid on development in the past

92L is wrapping it into the center, its done. Its right on top of 93L, its also likely done, at least until it moves farther west

SAL this SAL that...I hear this every year...SAL will go and the Canes will come....Most likely not till after 40W but Ive seen Storms go from Cat 1-4 over night..These waves don't have to be storms right away to be nasty by the time they reach 60W..I was 20 miles off the Jupiter inlet this weekend and the SST was 91....This will put SAL on the sideburner any time of the year...

[wx247]

there is nothing even remotely looking like it will form now

regardless as to how favorable the other parameters are, if we have a SAL like we currently have, we get nothing

Don't think the NWS said anything was imminent, but rather that it should be watched. Big difference, IMHO!

[skysummit]

WOW.....Cape Verde Season is now open.....all waves will need to be monitored! Kinda makes you wonder what the next 3 months will be like. I say everyone should put up their storm shudders this weekend and leave them till Christmas.

[wxcrazytwo]

Hmm, but according to Dsutherland it may close until late August.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=68766

[Frank2]

Being a former NWS employee (1980's), I have to say that the two SJU WSO discussion comments really are not allowed, since they are more subjective (opinion) than objective - sometimes the mid-shift wearies get the better of the forecasters.

While it's true that the SST's are above normal, many factors make the season as a whole. If the mid-Atlantic trough continues or deepens (it's been present to some extent since Emily passed 50W), that would make for a much quieter Atlantic season, as far as the Caribbean or U.S. are concerned.

Frank2

[rainydaze]

Luis,

Hearing the Cape Verde season is "open" makes me think of a new restaraunt in town...."NOW OPEN FOR BUSINESS" LOL....I was thinking maybe you could open a thread called " Cape Verde Cafe" or something like that and designate it as a discussion thread for the Cape Verde season.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Hearing the Cape Verde season is "open" makes me think of a new restaraunt in town...."NOW OPEN FOR BUSINESS" LOL....I was thinking maybe you could open a thread called " Cape Verde Cafe" or something like that and designate it as a discussion thread for the Cape Verde season.

I would consider it.If I go ahead it would start at august 1.