Bad News for Eastern Seaboard

[dgparent]

From our local paper ::

Pick your form of summer weather poison -- high heat or hurricanes.
For most of July, it's been searing heat and high humidity for the Triangle and most of Eastern North Carolina, courtesy of a high- pressure system that has squatted over the state like a sumo wrestler.

But starting late Thursday, that system, known as the Bermuda high, will move offshore. That will make it more likely that a hurricane could hit the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, said Jeff Orrock of the National Weather Service's Raleigh office.

While perched over land, the Bermuda high bounced Tropical Storm Franklin out to sea and shuttled Hurricane Emily across northern Mexico.

By Friday, a new weather pattern will emerge, featuring a persistent low-pressure system over Tennessee. That low will usher in dramatically cooler temperatures this weekend, with highs in the mid-80s.

Orrock said the Tennessee low, with its prevailing counter-clockwise winds, and the Bermuda high, with its prevailing clockwise winds, will create a chute between them that could usher hurricanes and tropical storms up the East Coast.

"These tropical systems look for the path of least resistance," Orrock said.

"It definitely won't be a closed door like we've seen this summer," he said.

[jimvb]

I can already see this in the latest GFS run - 2005/07/27, 06Z. It shows the Bermuda high splitting and the western part vanishing. It shows the Tennessee low that was mentioned in the article, although it is more like an Alabama or Gulf Shore low. And it shows a really close call on August 9 as the third of the three systems out by Africa approaches the Carolinas and then suddenly turns away. It's been said that 06Z GFS runs are not good because they have less recent data, so I am awaiting to see what 12Z says.

[EDR1222]

I have brought this up on other threads, but I thought this was a good one to mention it on as well.

Interestingly, two days in a row now, the NWS Melbourne discussion keeps mentioning The North Atlantic Oscillation and how it has transitioned to a strong negative phase. This is normally associated with weak ridging in the western Atlantic and a stronger east coast trough. Normally this pattern would suggest early recurvature. The problem is that it is not well understood and they do not know how long it is going to last.

If the negative phase persists through the summer, that could be a bit of good news, at least for the east coast of the U.S. The little that I do understand about the NAO is that it doesn't stay in the same phase for very long however.


Wednesday morning excerpt.

MID RANGE MODELS INDICATING A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES
RIDING AROUND THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING TOWARD THE
FL PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOW MUCH
MOISTURE ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO FL WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
CURRENTLY IS IN A NEGATIVE PHASE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. THIS WOULD SUPPORT WEAKER RIDGING
OVER THE WRN ATLC...WHICH IN TURN OPENS THE POSSIBLILITY FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO BYPASS FL TO THE E. BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE SAT AS THE CONTINENTAL/ATLC RIDGE SHOULD BLOCK PROGRESS OF THE
INITIAL TROPICAL WAVE. WILL KEEP POPS AOB 40% THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.

[banshee]

I cant say I'd welcome a hurricane, but the last time I felt this nasty hot sweltering dead air was when I lived in Miami. I'd love it if the temp and humidity drop tomorrow and all the kiddos can go outside to release excess energy....... If they dont get outside soon, we're gonna have hurricane force winds here in the house.

[huricanwatcher]

I cant say I'd welcome a hurricane, but the last time I felt this nasty hot sweltering dead air was when I lived in Miami. I'd love it if the temp and humidity drop tomorrow and all the kiddos can go outside to release excess energy....... If they dont get outside soon, we're gonna have hurricane force winds here in the house.

hahahaha..... sound like your talking about my house.... and looky same avatar ... NC .... rut roh

[rainstorm]

lc says numerous fronts blast off the east coast, which would mean recurves

[EDR1222]

It does look like there is a big trough headed for the east coast. The question is will it persist for a while pushing the western edge of the ridge well away from the coastline.

[mike18xx]

Orrock is talking like the front is going to just sit there for weeks, awaiting something way down by the Cape Verdes to slowly crawl alllllll the way across the Atlantic and paste the Outer Banks.

[beenthru6]

I cant say I'd welcome a hurricane, but the last time I felt this nasty hot sweltering dead air was when I lived in Miami. I'd love it if the temp and humidity drop tomorrow and all the kiddos can go outside to release excess energy....... If they dont get outside soon, we're gonna have hurricane force winds here in the house.

Boy can I relate to that. My 9 year old is driving me crazy. I took him and my daughter to Barefoot Landing today to see the ghosts and Legends show (My son has been begging me all summer). He got scared before the show even started If I can't get this kid outside soon to burn up some energy, I will go crazy!

[Dean4Storms]

By the time 92L or 93 get off the Florida coast or the Carib. the trough will be gone and ridging taking hold once again, meaning a westward turn.