93L Invest up

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Tropicswatcher]

On a first note I want to apologize for the big avatar i did have before. I was looking for a small Arecibo observatory avatar. couldn't find it.

On a second note i did look at the 18z Gfs for 144hrs an had two low pressures east of the islands moving west-nortwest. The one closest to the islands is probably the 93 invest and the second one the wave emerging from Africa. From this run of the Gfs , the invest would come very close to the islands if not over the northernmost ones.

[rockyman]

Luis,

While I know why you are breaking up the TWOs into separate threads, I think you need to put a header on top of each "reduced" TWO to let people know that portions of the TWO have been deleted to save space...the way the TWOs are being shown in these threads, someone could easily read the edited TWO and think that there is nothing else out there. By the way, thanks again for all your hard work!!

[cycloneye]

Luis,

While I know why you are breaking up the TWOs into separate threads, I think you need to put a header on top of each "reduced" TWO to let people know that portions of the TWO have been deleted to save space...the way the TWOs are being shown in these threads, someone could easily read the edited TWO and think that there is nothing else out there. By the way, thanks again for all your hard work!!

Ok thanks for that suggestion that by tommorow I will follow.

[beachbum_al]

See, I leave to go down to Orange Beach and then come back later tonight and guess what I found. The oceans have gone crazy! This site is going crazy! Now I am crazy.

[Hurricaneman]

The ride continues

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where is 93L forecasted to go next 3-5 days? Any model plots available?

[Rashid]

with the ridge trough ridge pattern at least one is bound to die in the north atlantic without affecting the CONUS.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

93L is starting to develop low level turning in the overall cloud field. Also it is starting to pop some popcorn convection=rising air moving upwards=low pressure. The southern outflow has increased. Also what this means is 93L might give 92L a very hard time. I think 93L is slowly becoming better oreganized. In expect a tropical depression to form soon.


http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

[Brent]

Yep... looking good.

[Hurricaneman]

Im going to be watching this one

[Wnghs2007]

06z Models up for 93L

000
WHXX01 KWBC 270712
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050727 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 0600 050727 1800 050728 0600 050728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 31.0W 11.4N 33.2W 10.9N 35.6W 10.4N 38.3W
BAMM 11.5N 31.0W 11.5N 32.8W 11.0N 35.0W 10.5N 37.5W
A98E 11.5N 31.0W 11.5N 34.1W 11.7N 37.3W 11.9N 40.4W
LBAR 11.5N 31.0W 11.5N 33.8W 11.7N 36.7W 11.8N 39.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 0600 050730 0600 050731 0600 050801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.1N 41.1W 10.3N 46.6W 11.1N 51.7W 12.2N 56.0W
BAMM 10.1N 40.1W 10.2N 45.3W 11.0N 50.2W 12.7N 54.2W
A98E 11.8N 43.3W 12.5N 48.6W 12.8N 53.7W 12.8N 58.8W
LBAR 11.7N 43.2W 11.5N 49.2W 10.5N 53.0W 10.8N 55.8W
SHIP 35KTS 43KTS 49KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 49KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 31.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 28.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 25.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

[Wnghs2007]

Well I know this is 3 hours old but its is the 2:05 TWD

for 93L


EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS...UPPER-AIR
TIMESECTIONS FROM DAKAR AND SAL...AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA
SUGGEST THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS SW OF THE CAPE VERDES
IS A REFLECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SMALLER IN
AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE ONE SOON TO
EMERGE OFF WEST AFRICA. MOST OF THE SIGNAL OF THE WAVE IS IN
THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH ONLY A SMALL SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED...
THOUGH THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IT SEEMS LIKE
EVERY WAVE RECENTLY HAS BEEN A CANDIDATE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR MORE
REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST RATHER THAN LATE IN JULY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W.

[weatherwindow]

IMO, 93L will reach depress status first with 92L bringing up the rear. however, it would appear that we will have 94L in short order with the latest wave. altho, i differ with the modelling on this, i dont believe that 92L will be a significant event for the islands. that said, 2005, will be noted as a dangerous year for those living in the islands, particularly those islands from guadeloupe north including puerto rico. luis, et al, stay prepared and safe................rich

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The quickscats this morning shows a undefined area of surface low pressure. With winds over the southwestern side up to 45 knots. This thing would likely need to be upgraded to a tropical storm. I would like to see that cirualtion become a little more defined. But it is close.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't get where the nhc gets there thinking this morning. The system looks very good with a tighter core developing. The convection is starting to move over the center. The outflow over the southwestern side reminds me of some of the more powerful cape verde storms at this point in there lifes.

[johngaltfla]

I tend to think that they are going to be very conservative this week waiting until they get numbers that favor upgrades. The NHC witnessed the absolute panic here in Florida and the thought of one, two or three named storms appearing all at once will cause massive consternation in this state.

They won't hold back, but they won't rush to declare T.D.'s and T.S.'s either, IMHO.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050727 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 1200 050728 0000 050728 1200 050729 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 31.8W 11.6N 34.3W 11.5N 37.0W 11.4N 39.7W
BAMM 11.5N 31.8W 11.6N 34.0W 11.5N 36.4W 11.3N 39.0W
A98E 11.5N 31.8W 11.6N 34.2W 11.9N 36.9W 12.4N 39.9W
LBAR 11.5N 31.8W 11.7N 34.2W 11.7N 36.9W 11.7N 39.9W
SHIP 20KTS 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS
DSHP 20KTS 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 1200 050730 1200 050731 1200 050801 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.4N 42.4W 11.9N 47.9W 13.1N 53.0W 14.3N 56.9W
BAMM 11.2N 41.7W 11.7N 47.4W 13.1N 52.9W 14.9N 57.0W
A98E 12.6N 42.7W 13.9N 47.7W 14.9N 52.3W 16.0N 56.3W
LBAR 11.6N 43.1W 11.6N 49.5W 11.8N 55.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 28KTS 36KTS 40KTS 40KTS
DSHP 28KTS 36KTS 40KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 31.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 29.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 26.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Cape Verde]

The models for 92L have it shifting more northerly every run, but 93L, which is further north than 92L, heading WSW. Don't know why.

[skysummit]

Where is 93L forecasted to go next 3-5 days? Any model plots available?

Here's what I had this morning....

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/3865/072705invest2modelplot19lw.jpg