Steve lyons

[MortisFL]

If Lyons said its going to FL 7 to 9 days out, then its going to Texas.

[EDR1222]

I respect Dr. Lyons, but that seems like a long way out to be making a call like that.

[Ixolib]

cause we are a weather board with lotsa weather fanatics.. we get hung up on every possible system until it's dead, gone, and buried 10 feet below. And when a system has a lil more then slight probability to develop we get bananas and go to extreme lengths trying to figure out what it's doing.

Well Said - BRAVO!!

[mf_dolphin]

I think the issue and cause for concern is the strong ridging. If that persists, the trend for Atlantic storms could be very similar to last year. If they can't get north then they'll be west-bound....

[EDR1222]

I think the issue and cause for concern is the strong ridging. If that persists, the trend for Atlantic storms could be very similar to last year. If they can't get north then they'll be west-bound....

It is interesting about the ridge. Early Monday morning, the NWS Melbourne office discussion had to do with the North Atlantic Oscillation which they say has swung to a quite strong negative phase which normally promotes very weak Atlantic ridging with a strong East Coast Trough. The NAO is not well understood however, and the big question will be how long it stays negative. If what they are saying is accurate, I would assume that means early recurvature. Of course the threat to the Islands is still there. I remember in 1995 the big hits the Islands took, especially from Luis and Marilyn. And also the threat of storms coming across at a lower latitude which has already occurred this year.