92L Invest up

[jlauderdal]

so if my eyes serve me correctly, the models have shifted a bit further north.

<RICKY>

75 and pines blvd is int he crosshair

[ROCK]

The curving on 92L is becoming better defined. With pop up convection forming. Its worth watching.

93L Just had a big convection burst over its center/LLC. It will not take long before it is up to tropical depression.(Nhc or not)

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

I agree, Matt. Looks alot better than earlier today.

[sweetpea]

Latest models has it going straight thru PR

[Coredesat]

This might've been posted already, but here's the model map for the 0000Z runs:

[Astro_man92]

This might've been posted already, but here's the model map for the 0000Z runs:

what is up with the blue modle there it isn't even connected to the system

[WeatherEmperor]

so if my eyes serve me correctly, the models have shifted a bit further north.

<RICKY>

75 and pines blvd is int he crosshair

LOL! had to go there didnt ya?

<RICKY>

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[timeflow]

Whatever this turns out to be I hope it doesn't end up bad for the islands. Especially PR which seems to be caught up just beyond where the general model paths lead. I really have no idea how bad Georges was there, aside from what my family told me. Hugo was a mess. I've got over a hundred photos and the story... just need time to scan and put it together into a web site of sorts. I had scanned about 20 photos but a hard drive failed and some things were not backed up. But as it went, it is incredibly hot and humid in the summer down there. No power for over a week in the resort area. (Up to a month elsewhere.) No water for a week. Everything in ruins. The air had a very strange smell for a month, probably septic, but a unique odor that one can never forget. Our apartment on the 14th floor was almost entirely blown out. One day I'll write it all out. Now every time I see the models point that way it's personal.

One more thing about all this excitement in big storms. There is excitement, and horror, and adrenaline when a storm is pointing at you. But I will say this, Charley was only a Cat 1 when it came through Orlando. And we were on the 3rd floor (top of the townhouse) facing west. That wind plowed hard against the trees in front of me. It was immense. When the winds shifted as the storm passed, we huddled in the interior listening to the wind pound against the roof. It was scary, to be honest. That is a Cat 1 for less than an hour, over a hundred miles from the point of landfall. And it really socked our communities here, and is sucked without power for a week. The inconvenience factor was quite bad, but it could have been far worse, we could have been in Port Charlotte.

The people who live through Cat 4 and 5 storms live out nightmares of the highest order. I was reading the account of someone's Hurricane Andrew experience - it goes far beyond excitement and adrenaline... it's like experiencing your own death. When the "dream" is over - see your home, your memories (material belongings), your community destroyed, your life is permanently changed.

So as much as I am obsessed with big storms and severe weather in general, I don't wish these forces upon anyone. Saying this, I question my interest and excitement for "activity" itself, knowing the potential for death and destruction. But it is a force of nature that, separate from the impact it poses to life and property, is almost hypnotic and mesmerizing to watch on satellite, to imagine the power of such an entity over the ocean, and the beauty of the spiral cloud patterns and eye structure.

That said, those who wish to have a catastrophic hurricane bearing down on them, their family and community - are under a tragic illusion - they are imagining the storm itself but cannot grasp the consequences - you can't even properly watch a catastrophic hurricane. It's just too dangerous. What you mostly see is the destruction once it is safe to emerge from wherever it is that you've been stuck, immobile, possibly with plywood on all your windows, hearing the pounding wind and rain on your roof, not knowing if a rouge tornado in a trailing feeder band will come from out of nowhere just when you think the worst is over...

In the end, this doesn't detract me from my interest in tracking storms and learning the science.

Wishing for it to be your fate, however, is unfortunate ignorance.

Anyhow, hope that invest doesn't cause anyone any strife down there...

While at the same time interested in seeing it develop. I must have a sad condition, myself. Yeesh. I better go to sleep...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

People that live on the islands choose to do so. So they know the risk of doing so. I love seeing things develop. In even more knowing we got a record year coming.

[Astro_man92]

WOW!!!! this thread was made this moring and it is at 9 pages already

[timeflow]

People that live on the islands choose to do so. So they know the risk of doing so. I love seeing things develop. In even more knowing we got a record year coming.

Of course we know the risk, the many millions of us in the modern world. I don't think that's up for debate. But I do find that kind of blanket generality a bit pithy. It's not always easy, convenient, possible to choose where you live, especially if you were born on an island. They know the risks, but are between a rock and a hard place when the %^&* comes down.

Before Hugo came along, I basically knew the risks but couldn't picture the aftermath, and even wanted to stay in the apartment to "see it" through the large glass patio window. It was exciting, and I wanted to experience it! However, what I saw - after it was safe to see - sucked, and it brought me to tears.

I didn't choose to live there knowing there were storms but not knowing the reality... it's hard to explain. But it's much more complicated than the quoted general statement. There are so many people, so many experiences... I guess my own have made me much more empathetic.

And yet I love seeing things develop, too. It's mad. I'm leaving this thread alone now... really, really need to sleep, hehe...

[caribepr]

People that live on the islands choose to do so. So they know the risk of doing so. I love seeing things develop. In even more knowing we got a record year coming.

Just a little note on this comment...living on islands for thousands of people is not like living in or building a condo or home on/near the beach in (pick your state) despite storm histories that have come before (and those who live on barrier islands or coastal communities in the states - you know what I mean if you have a long generational history in those places...I don't mean you and yours).
I absolutely CHOSE to live in the Caribbean islands (and have no regrets), coming from the mainland US, but many many many people I am very close with were born here; these islands are their homes and have been for generations. A rather significant difference, as well as a difference in how people on small islands look at hurricanes, basically for the majority knowing evacuation is not an option, options being limited to many factors. There are so many factors in these situations, which for me, are fascinating and a huge tool for learning about cultures and people different than myself. I've been blessed to learn from older people of the Virgin Islands, both British and US, down island citizens, and now Puerto Ricans about both the beauty and struggles of island living. Hurricanes are simply another facet of life to teach us all more about each other, and how we deal with what life brings to us.
Just a thought.

[fci]

Whatever this turns out to be I hope it doesn't end up bad for the islands. Especially PR which seems to be caught up just beyond where the general model paths lead. I really have no idea how bad Georges was there, aside from what my family told me. Hugo was a mess. I've got over a hundred photos and the story... just need time to scan and put it together into a web site of sorts. I had scanned about 20 photos but a hard drive failed and some things were not backed up. But as it went, it is incredibly hot and humid in the summer down there. No power for over a week in the resort area. (Up to a month elsewhere.) No water for a week. Everything in ruins. The air had a very strange smell for a month, probably septic, but a unique odor that one can never forget. Our apartment on the 14th floor was almost entirely blown out. One day I'll write it all out. Now every time I see the models point that way it's personal.

One more thing about all this excitement in big storms. There is excitement, and horror, and adrenaline when a storm is pointing at you. But I will say this, Charley was only a Cat 1 when it came through Orlando. And we were on the 3rd floor (top of the townhouse) facing west. That wind plowed hard against the trees in front of me. It was immense. When the winds shifted as the storm passed, we huddled in the interior listening to the wind pound against the roof. It was scary, to be honest. That is a Cat 1 for less than an hour, over a hundred miles from the point of landfall. And it really socked our communities here, and is sucked without power for a week. The inconvenience factor was quite bad, but it could have been far worse, we could have been in Port Charlotte.

The people who live through Cat 4 and 5 storms live out nightmares of the highest order. I was reading the account of someone's Hurricane Andrew experience - it goes far beyond excitement and adrenaline... it's like experiencing your own death. When the "dream" is over - see your home, your memories (material belongings), your community destroyed, your life is permanently changed.

So as much as I am obsessed with big storms and severe weather in general, I don't wish these forces upon anyone. Saying this, I question my interest and excitement for "activity" itself, knowing the potential for death and destruction. But it is a force of nature that, separate from the impact it poses to life and property, is almost hypnotic and mesmerizing to watch on satellite, to imagine the power of such an entity over the ocean, and the beauty of the spiral cloud patterns and eye structure.

That said, those who wish to have a catastrophic hurricane bearing down on them, their family and community - are under a tragic illusion - they are imagining the storm itself but cannot grasp the consequences - you can't even properly watch a catastrophic hurricane. It's just too dangerous. What you mostly see is the destruction once it is safe to emerge from wherever it is that you've been stuck, immobile, possibly with plywood on all your windows, hearing the pounding wind and rain on your roof, not knowing if a rouge tornado in a trailing feeder band will come from out of nowhere just when you think the worst is over...

In the end, this doesn't detract me from my interest in tracking storms and learning the science.

Wishing for it to be your fate, however, is unfortunate ignorance.

Anyhow, hope that invest doesn't cause anyone any strife down there...

While at the same time interested in seeing it develop. I must have a sad condition, myself. Yeesh. I better go to sleep...

Incredible post.
Could not have said it better myself.
We were on the South side of both Francis and Jeanne so we although we experienced winds up to about 100-105 or so and we were spared the worst. It was frightening listening to it in the dark, shutters up like in a cave.
And we knew we were not getting the main thrust of the storms and it was still harrowing.
Great explanation; I salute you.

[Hurricaneman]

Well written

[Wnghs2007]

Just a note I didnt get a chance to copy and paste the new 06z models but I did see them and they bring 92L up to 71 knts in 120 hours....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

92L is starting to look a little more oreganize. Some convection has fired near the center. Which is near 10 north/44 west. It is a broad area of low pressure going from 8 north to 14 north. The over all arcing of the system looks good. Watch it slowly develop over the next few days kind of like "Dennis" before Dennis. But sooner around 52 west.

The ship models might be close.


93L Has formed a nice outflow jet to the southwest which is a classic for strong developing storms. The thing is all the convection has been pulled into this axis. Which is normal for these to do at first. Also there is pop up convection to the north. Which means that air is rising. I'm thinking that this will be our first Cape verde. Also fast developing systems normally recurve but we will watch what happens.


What on earth is that????

[Wnghs2007]

Well I know this is 3 hours old but its is the 2:05 TWD

for 92L

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N41W TO 14N44W TO 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR
11N45W TO 7N46W MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO
A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W
AND 48W. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LARGER WAVE
CIRCULATION BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT AS TSTM ACTIVITY
INCREASES. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON FRIDAY WITH A PRECEDING "TAIL" OF MOISTURE ENTERING
TOMORROW.

[caribepr]

Well sheesh! You know I never post these things Luis..but I think this one is going to be looked back on later as pretty pivotal...what a switch from yesterday!!!





274
fxca62 tjsj 270840
afdsju


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 am AST Wednesday Jul 27 2005


Discussion...
satellite imagery overnight suggests a bit more vigorous vortex
associated with the arriving tropical wave than expected past 24
hours...and is leading to an area of numerous showers and isolated
deep thunderstorms just to the NE of the local area. Interaction of this
wave with the middle to upper low to the NE of the Bahamas will
maintain a northwest progression of this weather...and will advect northwest
through portions of the area today. GFS guidance and satellite imagery
indicate that the majority of moisture and weather with this wave
will pass to the north of the local islands this morning before another
area of low level moisture on the back side of this wave translates west-northwest
across the area tonight and Thursday. I do not expect a explosively
charged atmosphere locally today as upper high tries to nudge into
the area from the NE...but may be slightly more unstable on Thursday
for heavier precipitation potential.


Next tropical wave...currently along 46w...with large wind field
beginning to wrap inter-tropical convergence zone moisture and convection north and northwest into the
broader low to middle level cyclonic flow and looks at though it will
have to bring a significant amount of weather locally for periods of
time between Friday evening through Sunday morning.


Weather beyond this time frame is highly uncertain. Two tropical
waves behind the wave at 46w show decent cyclonic rotation and
thunderstorm activity. Unfortunately...sst's are sufficiently warm
all the way to the CAPE Verde Islands and the West Coast of
Africa...and the CAPE Verde season is now open. All waves exiting
Africa for the next 3 months will need to be monitored. Stay tuned.

[natmicstef]

That was a great post Time-flow. Having gone through Hurricane Luis and several lesser beings, I know the fear and damage as well as the life changing consequences to an entire community that a major hurricane brings..especially to the islands whose economy is almost totally tied to tourism.

People who have never experienced an impact have no idea what it entails, hence the desire to be impacted...what's scarier is those like me who have...and still feel a bit disappointed when its not heading our way..

[wxman57]

It appears that like yesterday, the NHC is looking in the wrong spot for potential development. They initialized the 06z models behind the trailing edge of the wave and WAY too far south. You can clearly see a low-level vortex near 15N/48W at the CREST of the wave. That's where you should look for development, not the lower trailing end. Now that visible satellite imagery cleaarly shows the lower level vortex, I'm sure the 12Z models will inialize much farther north and west.