92L Invest up

#141 Postby **deltadog03** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 3:17 pm

i think the ridge is forecasted to re build in once IT gets to the the islands....i don't see much with this thing ATTM

#142 Postby **fci** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 3:28 pm

ivanhater wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Refresh my memory...where did the models put Emily when she was out there?

to far north,

Real early on they had Emily north of PR and then kept coming down first over PR, then south of PR crossing Hispaniola and then progressively further south. Took a few days to get her south enough.

#143 Postby **Stormcenter** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 3:28 pm

deltadog03 wrote:i think the ridge is forecasted to re build in once IT gets to the the islands....i don't see much with this thing ATTM

I don't either but as it move westward it may do something then.

Hurricaneman · #144 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 3:31 pm

May or may not that is the question

#145 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:12 pm

346
ABNT20 KNHC 262110
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

#146 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:21 pm

Mentioned nothing about the wave behind 92L.

<RICKY>

Weatherboy1 · #147 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:23 pm

The NWS discussions from FL all make mention of how the medium-term models are forecasting some kind of wave/low to be in the general vicinity of the peninsula in 6/7 days. This is from NWS Melbourne, but both Key West and Miami say something similar. Who knows if it'll just be a wave or a developed system, but either way, it could generally be in this area by mid-week next week. We'll see ...

OF NOTE IS THAT MOST OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGS SOME
SORT OF DISTURBANCE WNW FROM THE TROPICS TWD CUBA/BAHAMAS BY DAYS
6-7. THIS FAR OUT IN TIME THE LOCATION/INTENSITY OF SUCH A FEATURE
IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT ERROR. NEVERTHELESS IT MAY WIND UP BEING
SOMETHING TO KEEP TABS ON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

-Mike

#148 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:23 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Mentioned nothing about the wave behind 92L.

<RICKY>

Or the one after that....hmmm....(altho I think they usually give them a day or 2 off the coast before saying anything)

#149 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 4:27 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Mentioned nothing about the wave behind 92L.

<RICKY>

I Divided the TWO and posted the reference to 92L here and about wave behind at waves thread.

#150 Postby **fci** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 5:39 pm

Can some one give me the link to the consolidated model map that you search by name or invest #??
I lost the link.
Thanks, Dave

#151 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 6:09 pm

fci wrote:Can some one give me the link to the consolidated model map that you search by name or invest #??
I lost the link.
Thanks, Dave

I think this is what you are looking for.

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

#152 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:02 pm

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED NE TO SW ALONG 20N40W
TO 7N43W WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N42W MOVING W
20 KT. THE WAVE HAS A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION THAN YESTERDAY AS
IT MOVES INTO THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE
WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A
LINE FROM 7N43W TO 15N39W. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN
THE LARGER WAVE CIRCULATION BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT AS
TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER
THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY WITH A PRECEDING "TAIL" OF
MOISTURE ENTERING TOMORROW.

caribepr · #153 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:06 pm

Does this mean our last holiday weekend of the month is going to be a soaker? I need to sell some hot sauce!!!

#154 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:09 pm

caribepr wrote:Does this mean our last holiday weekend of the month is going to be a soaker? I need to sell some hot sauce!!!

In one word yes.

caribepr · #155 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:12 pm

cycloneye wrote:
caribepr wrote:Does this mean our last holiday weekend of the month is going to be a soaker? I need to sell some hot sauce!!!

In one word yes.

In one MORE word...oh never mind, I'll be good :cry:

Astro_man92 · #156 Postby **Astro_man92** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:13 pm

fci wrote:
ivanhater wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Refresh my memory...where did the models put Emily when she was out there?

to far north,

Real early on they had Emily north of PR and then kept coming down first over PR, then south of PR crossing Hispaniola and then progressively further south. Took a few days to get her south enough.

Emily was also a speed demon I think she averaged 20 mhp she would be speeding down my street ((15 mph)it is one of those dead end streets) if she was up here!

#157 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 7:42 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050727 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050727 0000 050727 1200 050728 0000 050728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.8N 42.9W 11.0N 45.9W 12.3N 48.7W 13.6N 50.9W
BAMM 9.8N 42.9W 11.2N 45.4W 12.8N 47.6W 14.2N 49.5W
A98E 9.8N 42.9W 10.5N 45.5W 11.4N 48.1W 12.4N 50.6W
LBAR 9.8N 42.9W 10.9N 45.9W 12.3N 49.0W 13.6N 52.0W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050729 0000 050730 0000 050731 0000 050801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.7N 52.8W 16.6N 56.3W 17.8N 60.3W 18.0N 64.1W
BAMM 15.5N 51.3W 17.7N 54.8W 18.5N 58.5W 18.0N 62.4W
A98E 13.6N 53.0W 16.6N 58.1W 19.7N 63.1W 22.8N 67.3W
LBAR 14.7N 54.6W 17.1N 58.9W 18.9N 62.1W 18.5N 64.3W
SHIP 42KTS 56KTS 64KTS 68KTS
DSHP 42KTS 56KTS 64KTS 68KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 42.9W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.2N LONM12 = 40.2W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.6N LONM24 = 37.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#158 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:14 pm

so if my eyes serve me correctly, the models have shifted a bit further north.

<RICKY>

#159 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:15 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:so if my eyes serve me correctly, the models have shifted a bit further north.

<RICKY>

My friend your eyes are correct.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #160 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 8:18 pm

The curving on 92L is becoming better defined. With pop up convection forming. Its worth watching.

93L Just had a big convection burst over its center/LLC. It will not take long before it is up to tropical depression.(Nhc or not)

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

92L Invest up

FL area a week out?

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