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Javlin
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#101 Postby Javlin » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:56 am

The wave coming off now looks like some possibility.The pts. of initialization do not look good at all 8.5N and 31W????
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#102 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:01 pm

casper wrote:The wave coming off now looks like some possibility.The pts. of initialization do not look goog at all 8.5N and 31W????


That has been changed 2 hours ago now at 8.5n-39.0w

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050726 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050726 1200 050727 0000 050727 1200 050728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.5N 39.0W 9.9N 41.9W 11.3N 44.7W 12.6N 47.1W
BAMM 8.5N 39.0W 10.1N 41.5W 11.6N 43.8W 13.0N 45.8W
A98E 8.5N 39.0W 8.8N 41.2W 9.5N 43.5W 10.6N 46.0W
LBAR 8.5N 39.0W 9.5N 41.8W 11.0N 44.9W 12.3N 47.9W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 27KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050728 1200 050729 1200 050730 1200 050731 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.9N 49.1W 15.8N 52.4W 16.9N 55.5W 17.4N 58.5W
BAMM 14.1N 47.7W 16.0N 51.2W 17.1N 54.6W 17.6N 58.0W
A98E 11.8N 48.6W 14.2N 53.7W 16.7N 58.4W 19.2N 61.7W
LBAR 13.7N 50.6W 16.6N 54.8W 19.3N 57.6W 20.5N 58.7W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS 59KTS
DSHP 38KTS 49KTS 56KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.5N LONCUR = 39.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.3N LONM12 = 37.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.1N LONM24 = 35.0W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

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#103 Postby jpigott » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:09 pm

where can i access these new model plots overlayed onto a map of the area
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#104 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:13 pm

jpigott wrote:where can i access these new model plots overlayed onto a map of the area


http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
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#105 Postby Swimdude » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:21 pm

It's almost funny how we sometimes completely ignore a wave until an invest comes up, and then we realize we've been looking in the wrong place the whole time! :lol: I'm ready for another storm!
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#106 Postby jpigott » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:28 pm

i don't believe they have updated the map with the new coordinates. The map still has this invest way south of where the 120 hr coordinates are now listed
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#107 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:34 pm

cycloneye wrote:
jpigott wrote:where can i access these new model plots overlayed onto a map of the area


http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm


That is an old map... (from earlier this morning, created in error). I'm trying to make a model map now...
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#108 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:41 pm

Im keeping my eyes out on this one
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#109 Postby senorpepr » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:52 pm

Here's a model map until the normal site updates properly...

Image
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DESTRUCTION5
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#110 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:55 pm

senorpepr wrote:Here's a model map until the normal site updates properly...

Image


Man thats some high quality map
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#111 Postby thefixed » Tue Jul 26, 2005 12:58 pm

In case you would like a different angle, I made one as well...

<img src="http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b119/thefixed/model.gif">
Last edited by thefixed on Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#112 Postby Swimdude » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:01 pm

Thanks. That's a bit more... 2-D. Which is nice! Oh and welcome to Storm2K!
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#113 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:10 pm

CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 39W/40W S OF 21N MOVING W
20 KT WITH A 1014 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 9N40W. A CONVECTIVE
BAND IS ORIENTED ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW...ALONG THE
ITCZ...BUT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE TSTM ACTIVITY
FROM THE N. THE DRY AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
DUST ALONG AND UP TO 700 NM AHEAD OF THE WAVE...AND THIS STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IS PRECLUDING MUCH CONVECTION N OF 10N. ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 37W-40W. SEE ITCZ FOR RELATED
CONVECTION.

From 2:05 Discussion

Dry air not letting it organize more.
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Anonymous

#114 Postby Anonymous » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:13 pm

Yep, I knew they would adjust north. North of Puerto Rico....5-7 days :wink:
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cycloneye
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#115 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:24 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050726 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050726 1800 050727 0600 050727 1800 050728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 41.4W 10.1N 44.5W 11.5N 47.4W 12.9N 49.7W
BAMM 8.8N 41.4W 9.9N 44.0W 11.2N 46.5W 12.3N 48.8W
A98E 8.8N 41.4W 9.1N 44.1W 9.7N 46.8W 10.5N 49.5W
LBAR 8.8N 41.4W 9.7N 44.5W 11.1N 47.8W 12.4N 50.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050728 1800 050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 51.6W 15.4N 55.1W 15.6N 59.0W 15.7N 63.2W
BAMM 13.3N 50.8W 14.7N 54.1W 14.9N 57.8W 14.8N 61.7W
A98E 11.3N 52.2W 13.1N 57.4W 14.8N 62.7W 16.3N 67.4W
LBAR 13.7N 53.7W 16.1N 58.1W 17.8N 61.1W 17.9N 63.7W
SHIP 36KTS 49KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 36KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.2N LONM24 = 36.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#116 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:26 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:Yep, I knew they would adjust north. North of Puerto Rico....5-7 days :wink:



it better develop pretty fast to start gaining that kind of latitude, otherwise it is pretty far south and will move in the Caribbean
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#117 Postby jasons2k » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:26 pm

thefixed wrote:In case you would like a different angle, I made one as well...

<img src="http://i18.photobucket.com/albums/b119/thefixed/model.gif">


Ahhhhh, thank you!
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#118 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:27 pm

cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050726 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050726 1800 050727 0600 050727 1800 050728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 41.4W 10.1N 44.5W 11.5N 47.4W 12.9N 49.7W
BAMM 8.8N 41.4W 9.9N 44.0W 11.2N 46.5W 12.3N 48.8W
A98E 8.8N 41.4W 9.1N 44.1W 9.7N 46.8W 10.5N 49.5W
LBAR 8.8N 41.4W 9.7N 44.5W 11.1N 47.8W 12.4N 50.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050728 1800 050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 51.6W 15.4N 55.1W 15.6N 59.0W 15.7N 63.2W
BAMM 13.3N 50.8W 14.7N 54.1W 14.9N 57.8W 14.8N 61.7W
A98E 11.3N 52.2W 13.1N 57.4W 14.8N 62.7W 16.3N 67.4W
LBAR 13.7N 53.7W 16.1N 58.1W 17.8N 61.1W 17.9N 63.7W
SHIP 36KTS 49KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 36KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.2N LONM24 = 36.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



They Seem to have shifted south from the 12z run if that is correct and both the ships and dships almost bring it up to hurricane strength at the end of the run.
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#119 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:28 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
cycloneye wrote: TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050726 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050726 1800 050727 0600 050727 1800 050728 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.8N 41.4W 10.1N 44.5W 11.5N 47.4W 12.9N 49.7W
BAMM 8.8N 41.4W 9.9N 44.0W 11.2N 46.5W 12.3N 48.8W
A98E 8.8N 41.4W 9.1N 44.1W 9.7N 46.8W 10.5N 49.5W
LBAR 8.8N 41.4W 9.7N 44.5W 11.1N 47.8W 12.4N 50.8W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 26KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050728 1800 050729 1800 050730 1800 050731 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.0N 51.6W 15.4N 55.1W 15.6N 59.0W 15.7N 63.2W
BAMM 13.3N 50.8W 14.7N 54.1W 14.9N 57.8W 14.8N 61.7W
A98E 11.3N 52.2W 13.1N 57.4W 14.8N 62.7W 16.3N 67.4W
LBAR 13.7N 53.7W 16.1N 58.1W 17.8N 61.1W 17.9N 63.7W
SHIP 36KTS 49KTS 57KTS 65KTS
DSHP 36KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 8.5N LONM12 = 38.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 8.2N LONM24 = 36.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



They Seem to have shifted south from the 12z run if that is correct and both the ships and dships almost bring it up to hurricane strength at the end of the run.


Yes more south now by the way closer to where I am but it is very early in the game to say where exactly this will go.
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Ivanhater
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#120 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:28 pm

ivanhater wrote:
~Floydbuster wrote:Yep, I knew they would adjust north. North of Puerto Rico....5-7 days :wink:



it better develop pretty fast to start gaining that kind of latitude, otherwise it is pretty far south and will move in the Caribbean



yes, i think they had it to far north before
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