Space Weather effects tropical intensifiction & developm

[Jim Hughes]

I just wanted to make a quick post about some of the things that I Will be talking about within this forum in the near future. First a quick heads up about me. Over the past decade of I have been forecasting meteorological and climatological events/trends. These forecasts were based on the space weather effect upon the earth's environment. There are many variables that I use like , the solar magnetic field readings and their vectors as well as solar flares/eruptions and the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field components. All of the above are cyclical in nature and I have both researched and observed these parameters thoroughly over the past decade. I have written many discussions about these connections and many people within the science community have received these e-mail discussions. I have also gotten back many replies over the years. Some of these individuals work at TWC and our well known. Others work in other areas pertaining to the subject matters that I write about. Some are even newspaper/news contacts that I have made over the years and one is a science writer for a large NE newspaper. I will not currently go into all of my past success but there have been many. Some were in newsprint well before occurring and some were read over the radio air waves. The latter occurred this past January 6th on The Tony Kornheiser show in the Washington DC area. I had forecast a snowstorm to occur between January 22nd-24th for the northeast midatlantic. I thought a repeatable pattern from December 26th would occur again and it did. The largest proton flare since October 1989 preceded the blockbuster storm by 24 hours. Large solar eruptions precede major intensification/development by 36 hours and I have written about this for quite some time. I started to post things more frequently in the TWC forum the past few weeks and my theories were gaining some attention. The forum started to have some serious problems after my postings and I have to wonder suspiciously about the timing of these events. You can no longer access the forum now do to maintenance problems. There was a substantial increase in both solar flaring and eruptions during the first two weeks in July. This activity exceeded the combined total of the prior 45 days and the last weeks. All the major intensifcations this season have followed my forecasting rules/methods. Almost every TD has formed in the past two year's when the solar wind speed is diminsishing from it's level from the prior 24-72 hours. I posted hard Numbers in the TWC forum last week as well as in some e-mail discussions. Only a few did not follow this rule and I can explain the reasoning of why a few systems formed when the solar wind speed was above the 500 km/sec level. I am in the midst of writing up an e-mail discussion but I will be posting many more things within this forum within the next 24 hours or so. I will give out URL's and other related things , like science papers that give credence to my theories.

[mahicks]

First of all Welcome to Storm2K...You'll love it here

Sounds interesting...I will be looking forward to your post and links to verify with.

[P.K.]

I've read articles before about tornadoes possibly being caused due to these sorts of things. (Journal of Meteorology Vol 30 Number 298).

Are you aware of Piers Corbyn? He claims to be able to do forecasts months ahead using these techniques, but then again he forecast an active tornadic period the other weekend and it certainly wasn't. http://www.weatheraction.com/

[Jim Hughes]

Thanks for the welcome Mahicks....I understand your skepticism Derecho and I expect to get blasted from the conservative side. I am pretty thick skinned though...May I suggest you first read one of the paper's that Baranyi has contributed to. I have it listed below .This deals with the importance of the direction of the interplanetary magnetic field and how this relates to what areas on earth are effected. I have for years stressed this importance. I always said that some areas are effected and not others. One very well known local Washington DC area senior OCM use to give me a hard time about my theories even after they panned out . He said it was impossible for it not to effect everywhere if it did at all during some of the 50 plus exchanges we had over the years. Well he received this URL early last spring and he has yet to either talk to me over the phone or return my e-mails. I guess this is his way of saying I might have been wrong Jim.......Yes P.K. I know about Piers Corbyn. I talked to Piers transatlantic-ally on a couple of occasions back around 1997 I think. I met him through an associate of his. Koroush Bamzi Yadi. Koroush had talked to me about some solar stuff in the old TWC forum on Compuserve. We exchanged several e-mails. I was forecasting the intensity level of up the upcoming solar cycle, # 23, and Koroush wanted to hear what I had to say. He also wanted to hear my thoughts about what role the sun has upon the El Nino/La Nina . I have not spoken to either one in more than 6-7 years. More URL's discussions later ......

httP://fenyi.sci.klte.hu/solspa2000.html

[drudd1]

Got the old, "The page cannot be displayed" when using that link.

[Anonymous]

Welcome to Storm2K and looking forward to your posts!!

[Pebbles]

Welcome to storm2k. Looking forward to hearing more on what you have to share.

I always look forward to hearing idea's and thoughts people may have. Being backed up by numbers makes it even more interesting! I hope everyone keeps an open mind and uses debate format (no bashing please) when these type of situations occur. We have some fantastic and very constructive debates here at storm2k that are of great interest to many! Would like to see this type of atmosphere continue. Just because there may be two sides to a particular topic with very opposing views, I believe they should be shared and all given due consideration and a chance to be voiced (in an appropriate manner of course). Besides isn't that the point of discussion forums??
*huggers to all*

[Hurricaneman]

Im not into that kind of science, space weather and weather here

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Jim Hughes you have awesome posts from the TWC Messageboards!!

[CaptinCrunch]

Welcome brother Jim to S2K!!

[Aslkahuna]

Ah, you have shown up here. Been an interesting descending branch in the current cycle to be sure.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

Thanks to all. I hope I can open up some eyes into the space weather effects upon tropical development.....This is complicated though and short posts will be hard to do initially..... Aslkahuana! ...New it was you when I saw the name...The space weather gods must have answered my prayers....Hope all is well....Hey going to get into some interesting subjects that you can relate to...Remember our past brief chats back in the old TWC forum about flaring- tropics getting busy, Atlantic and WPAC in 98 and 99'? Well I have gotten back into this now that my twins are grown up somewhat. Briefly what I have noticed and why I think it happens....I have always talked about the importance of eruptions on the solar limbs, EPL's etc. you know about how they increase chances of proton events etc.....as well as the presence of magnetically complexed sunspot regions. Magnetic field vector/direction seems to play an important role also. When you look over the past two years you can see clearly at formation time that the solar winds must be below the 500 km/sec level and diminishing compared to the prior 24-72 hours. The only time a TD /TS has formed is when the MeV2 is above 1.0E+7 level during the times of high speed winds. (C-hole or transient related winds) I have written allot since we last spoke about events happening in certain solar quadrants and their effect depends upon what the magnetic field readings were at the time of their occurrence. So this is all basically about angles and the increase or exchanges of energetic particles brought upon by space weather changes. The angle of course is related to the ionization of the ionosphere. As you well know certain layers like the F2 reach their peak a couple of hours after sunrise and some have seasonal peaks do to the seasonal tilt.... Late summer...tropics active...okay so as you mentioned this descending part of the solar cycle is interesting and different from the ones that you were watching well before I got into this. The solar poles are considerably much weaker, magnetically, at this stage of the cycle, than the previous two. This is probably more like cycle 20 or the pre 19's. The current strength of the poles and their waxing and waning relate to the presence of more coronal holes. Especially equatorial ones...not necessarily extensions from the poles. This guarantees more coronal windstreams at a different angle compared to the two previous cycles and C-holes have a tendency to bring along more particles..electron wise and higher ion temperatures with their magnetic field stability. The overall size of the earth's magnetosphere is also most likely smaller do to the lower solar activity from day to day...solar winds...solar flux, radiation etc..... We then get these sharp impulsive eruptional increases every 150 days or so. I believe this is why we saw greater tropical activity during the first half of last century around solar maximum and basically at no other time. Not only was there most likely more eruptions at this time but the presence of larger recurrent coronal holes would have also increased around this time frame. (1913-14 sun was spotless allot compared to any other time last century. Geomagnetic activity extremely low. ...10 tropical systems.three years) So now we have increased eruptions...it overwhelms the system..ionosphere... and this effects the atmospheric circulation differently then the previous solar cycle by way of the ionosphere coupling with the atmosphere differently. Dr Gray sees patterns way ahead because those areas of the earth are effected during this particular time. We are talking about semi permanent atmospheric teleconnections in a way. The sun then repeats it's usual cyclical nature and bam the tropics get the brunt of this relationship. I talked to Phil Klotzbach a while back, He's on Gray's team. But I have no idea if he ever looked into what I was telling him. He is on my e-mail discussion list. I will be back with more data ..URL's... talks.. late tonight.

[Pebbles]

I sent a pm on this too but not sure if you know about that yet. I love your posts but they are tad difficult to read. Is there anyway you could break them up a bit by paragraphing them? Not seperate posts but a blank line between paragraphs so there isn't a block 30 lines long. Thanks much hun *HUGGERS*

[mvtrucking]

Very interesting Jim. Thanks for posting.

[Jim Hughes]

I sent a pm on this too but not sure if you know about that yet. I love your posts but they are tad difficult to read. Is there anyway you could break them up a bit by paragraphing them? Not seperate posts but a blank line between paragraphs so there isn't a block 30 lines long. Thanks much hun *HUGGERS*

Sorry....I will try and keep the paragraphs seperated more often like I usually do in my e-mail discussions. This post will deal mainly with the relationship of the solar wind speed and tropical enhancement/development. I have looked into the latter more thoroughly since it is much easier....one date only.

The earth's magnetosphere is continually being pushed around by the solar wind. The solar wind originates from different parts of the solar surface in many different manners. Coronal holes , streamers, coronal mass ejections (CME's) are some of them. These winds are accompanied by the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). The IMF extends way out into the heliosphere. In some circumstances, like with coronal holes, the magnetic field lines actually loop back to the sun after extending well out into the solar system... Many AU's.

I have found that the Atlantic storms and quite possibly other areas...and Northeasters also...seem to form when the solar wind speed is below the 500 km/sec range. They also tend to form while the solar wind is in a diminishing state after the winds had been higher during the previous 24-72 hours. Many storms form within 24 hours after the hourly averages fall to the 500 km/sec range. TS Gert did this most recently. The only time that these variables are not needed, or seen in the below data is when the MeV2 electron fluence is > 0.0E+07 (Above this value)

Only TS Mathew from 2004 does not fit this relationship and I can explain this but I will pass for now. We are talking about a very complicated feedback here.

Here are two URL's for ACE2 1 hour solar wind data .

The first is for the monthly data between 7/04-07/05. Click on the SWEPAM _1h.txt for any month or click on the second URL listed below it for the July 2005 data. Just change the date in the URL for the different months. Look under the heading Solar Wind Bulk Speed for the SWEPAM data.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/lists/ace2.html

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpdir/lists/ac ... pam_1h.txt

The MeV2 electron data can be seen at this URL. Click on the yearly or quarterly Daily Particle Indices for the different time frames. It goes back until 1994. It is the next to last reading giving all the way to the right.

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/indices ... dices.html

Here are the solar wind speed numbers that were recorded by the ACE satellite when all of the tropical systems formed for both this year and last. The first number I give is the five hour smoothed number which is centered around formation time. The second number is the five hour smoothed centered around the time period 24 hours earlier. The third and fourth numbers are the highest hourly averages seen at any time during the previous 48 and 72 hour periods respectively.

On occasions the prior 24 hour period may seem just barely higher but the winds can increase rapidly sometimes for many reasons before they diminish again. Emily's formation time is a good example. The numbers do not show much of a decrease but a solar windshock was recorded just after the five hour smoothed average center 24 hours earlier.

The solar wind speed had been in the mid to upper 300 range when the sharp increase occurred. These slower hourly averages skewed the previous five hour smoothed average and the drop off in wind speed does not show up in the numbers a well. The winds had actually diminished by about 60 km/sec by formation time from the previous high some 15-20 hours earlier.


2004

Alex - 467, 487, 520, 590

Bonnie -370 , 395 487, 487

Charley - 358, 395, 487, 487

Danielle - 413, 495, 544, 602

Earl - 403, 478, 536, 602

Frances- 304 ,383, 413, 480

Gaston - 402, 427, 455, 455

Hermine - 401, 397, 443, 443

Ivan - 442, 472, 508, 508

Jeanne - 545, 293, 368, 368

Karl - 545, 550, 587, 604

Lisa - 388, 408, 502, 557

Mathew - 371, 348, 364, 379

Nicole - 358, 362, 378, 378

Otto - 644 , 556, 558, 560



2005

Arlene - 417, 483, 522, 628

Bret - 408 394 , 491, 646

Cindy - 495 , 555, 619, 619

Dennis - 436, 481, 550, 593

Emily- 418 , 419 , 481, 481

Franklin - 594, 536, 591. 591,

Gert - 427, 593, 608, 625

I will be posting other information and theories as time goes by. Another big influence is solar eruptions. These can be seen in LASCO images. LASCO C2 and C3 are best. I have found the lag time effect of solar eruptions to be approximately 36 hours after the events.

I tend to use the time of when the event is seen on the solar limb but large solar flares, when accompanied by either Type ll and Type lV Radio Sweeps , seem to be just as important. So the time may have to be averaged out. It sometimes takes several hours for an eruption to reach the solar limb depending upon it's solar origin and estimated shock speed. (Estimated time of ejection which can be used to calculate how long it will take to get here.)

The above relationship with solar eruptions is dependent upon the origin of the event and the direction of the IMF. I have found that the best measurement is the Stanford Mean Magnetic field numbers. These are put out by the Wilcox Observatory.

This a measurement of the solar surface between latitudes 55S and 55 N. It can either be negative or positive. Most magnetic phase- trends last about a week.

In a March e-mail discussion that I sent out I stipulated that during the 2005 season the proper relationship is


Negative - SE/NW

Positive - SW/NE

The QBO phase plays an important role in determining things like this just like it does in many other space weather relationships.

You can see the LASCO images here at this URL . They go back into the mid 90's. Take a look at the days before sharp intensification increases during Dennis and Emily this year or even some from last year's storms as well. Almost any storm, whether it's the October 1991 Halloween storm, or any other intense storm, follows my theories.

http://Lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg/

BTW many weather/climate events are linked to the above. Tornadic activity...lightening strikes, Oceanic-atmospheric teleconnections ... etc....

Mike Doran .....Glad to see you made it over here to. What have the CONUS strikes been like? Please add in...

[shortwave]

http://www.spaceweather.com/
didn't spot this link so far. It's a good starting and reference point for this area of discussion.

[Jim Hughes]

http://www.spaceweather.com/
didn't spot this link so far. It's a good starting and reference point for this area of discussion.

Yes shortwave it's very good link to follow. I figured I would take it slow with the URL's. One other site that is good, but the monitor is on vacation this week...good archive and data is

http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.html

It's a good radio propagation website...They are the ones we need around here...They know allot about the ionosphere and it's quirks... importance of Sporadic E's etc....

Another one which I think I left out in the earlier threads is

http://www.sel.noaa.gov/today.html

You can monitor solar flaring here as well as geomagnetic activity. And you can find out the events today in the daily edited events listing. It has a key to look at for explanation of the abbreviations etc.. Any questions just ask.

[Aslkahuna]

Spaceweather.com is a decent site but the importance of it is in the links they have. I use the SEC site for looking at the indices. One heads up, if the backside CMEs and the increase in X-Ray emission along the E limb means anything, then we are on the verge of an uptick in activity. Regions 786 and 790 generated some hefty flare activity before they rotated off the visible disk a while back. Meanwhile, I note an enhancement of the >10 MeV proton flux-possible backside effect? It's rare but Proton events do occur from backside flares.

Steve

[Jim Hughes]

One heads up, if the backside CMEs and the increase in X-Ray emission along the E limb means anything, then we are on the verge of an uptick in activity. Regions 786 and 790 generated some hefty flare activity before they rotated off the visible disk a while back. Meanwhile, I note an enhancement of the >10 MeV proton flux-possible backside effect? It's rare but Proton events do occur from backside flares.

Steve

Yes they mean something Steve. Emily got stronger after some..saw the somewhat unusual proton increase today considering what's on the visible disk...agree it's back sided...One of the biggest backside related events that I ever saw this cycle was after the backside 12/31/01 event. I was always surprised it never got talked about in any daily reports, SEC/NOAA etc...It was well beyond the backside limbs. I think we saw a >10 MeV event from it. You know that's basically unheard of. Goes against allot of what we are told also.

[mike18xx]

Paragraphs are cute and cuddly -- everybody should adopt them!