92L Invest up

#81 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:24 am

wx247 wrote:Anyone have a good sat. link to the invest that is not as zoomed in as the NRL one? I would like to see it in relation to land. Thanks!

The wave emerging Africa looks better than 92L at this time.

Anonymous · #82 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:24 am

Yep...Invest today...hurricane by weekend north of PR.

wxcrazytwo · #83 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:29 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Yep...Invest today...hurricane by weekend north of PR.

I am going to take you up on that. Wow, 8 (possible) so far...

Derek Ortt · #84 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:38 am

want to place a wager on this wave becoming a cane?

#85 Postby **dhweather** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:39 am

Derek Ortt wrote:want to place a wager on this wave becoming a cane?

I wouldn't touch it.

#86 Postby **sponger** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:40 am

7 storms is amazing. 8 would be unthinkable. We are blowing records away left and right. Certainly looks on track for a 1 in 50 year season. Maybe a 1 in 100?

jpigott · #87 Postby **jpigott** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:47 am

Derek Ortt wrote:want to place a wager on this wave becoming a cane?

where are you placing your bets on this system?

#88 Postby **bvigal** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:49 am

wx247 wrote:Anyone have a good sat. link to the invest that is not as zoomed in as the NRL one? I would like to see it in relation to land. Thanks!

This is NRL, but whole Atlantic, high resolution:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15%&CURRENT=LATEST.jpg

EDIT: OK, before I posted this, I did a "refresh" on my browser, then quickly created the post and posted, then suddenly all these other posts show up in between. Why not when I "refresh" the browser? So I don't what's been posted before I reply. Sorry again, but I'm not sure how I'll ever keep from answering things that have already been answered, if I can't see them... Any suggestions?

wxmann_91 · #89 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:51 am

wx247 wrote:Anyone have a good sat. link to the invest that is not as zoomed in as the NRL one? I would like to see it in relation to land. Thanks!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

Derecho · #90 Postby **Derecho** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:53 am

cajungal wrote: And at this time it looks to be at a such a low latitude that it will probably crash into South America.

I've never, ever, seen a wave or INVEST below 10N that was developing have that development stifled because it simply "crashed into South America."

Systems, particularly if they're developing, naturally want to gain latitude. If something does "crash into South America" it's weak and wasn't developing anyway.

#91 Postby **caplan1** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 10:56 am

Im sorry for the next question, but i am a novice so I dont always know what things mean. when ever you say _ _ invest up, what do you mean?

#92 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:00 am

caplan1 wrote:Im sorry for the next question, but i am a novice so I dont always know what things mean. when ever you say _ _ invest up, what do you mean?

That means a suspisious area is being investigated by NHC and they have numbers for those.A more complete explanation about how this works is below.

Atlantic(L): North of the equator between N. America and Africa
East Pacific(E): North of the equator between 140W and N. America
Central Pacific(C): North of the equator between 180W and 140W longitude
West Pacific(W): North of the equator between 100E and 180E longitude
Indian Ocean:
(A) North of the equator between Africa and 77E longitude
(B) North of the equator between 77E and 100E longitude
Southern Hemisphere:
(P) South of the equator between 135E and S. America
(S) South of the equator between Africa and 135E longitude

Letter identifiers are assigned to the storm's basin of origin. If a storm passes over a basin boundary, the storm will maintain it's basin of origin letter identifier even though it has entered a new region. For example, storm "Alpha" originates in the Eastern Pacific and is assigned 01E. If it makes its way into the Central Pacific it will still maintain its number and name designation even though it is seen under the Central Pacific header.
The storm number can be an eighty series (80-89), ninety series (90-99), or a number between 1 and 50. Storms seen with a number between 80 and 89 are usually used for testing purposes only. Storms with numbers between 90 and 99 are areas that forecasters use to monitor suspect regions typically with disorganized large-scale convection that has a chance to develop into a more organized system such as a tropical depression. Storms with numbers between 1 and 50 are/were storms that reached tropical storm strength or higher.
The naming convention after the number/basin pair can be called INVEST, NONAME, or assigned name. All storms will start with an INVEST name. When the system becomes a tropical storm this name will change to either NONAME or assigned name. NONAME is assigned to storms which do not have an official assigned name yet. Assigned names are given to tropical storms according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Typically, storms that form in the Indian Ocean north of the equator will have NONAME. There are a few occasions where a tropical storm name will have an INVEST or a ONE, TWO,... following the number/basin pair. This name is only temporary and typically lasts for only a couple of hours. This is caused by the timing of the position updates generated by the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) system and when forecasters determine that the system has become a tropical storm.

x-y-no · #93 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:00 am

Was just taking a look at the last few runs of the GFS to see what the setup might be like ...

In general, it looks like there will be enough ridging to keep anything which develops on a general WNW track to somewhere near (probably north of) Hispaniola in the Monday mornig timeframe.

The 6Z run actually has a low there at that time - the other runs lose the system except for a weak wave (which doesn't mean a whole heck of a lot - intensity is not a GFS forte).

If this develops, looks like an east coast threat to me.

Interestingly, the GFS is more or less jumping on the wave currently leaving Africa in every run - much more so than this wave.

caribepr · #94 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:04 am

Good explanation of terms, Cycloneye. Thanks Caplan,
for asking the question!

#95 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:20 am

when does the next model plots come out? last one i saw was the incorrect initialization

DESTRUCTION5 · #96 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:28 am

Derek Ortt wrote:want to place a wager on this wave becoming a cane?

You guys are professional Gamblers down there in Miami...I usually love a good bet but im with you on this one...I see no development at all...

x-y-no · #97 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:31 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:want to place a wager on this wave becoming a cane?

You guys are professional Gamblers down there in Miami...I usually love a good bet but im with you on this one...I see no development at all...

Normally, I'd agree - but it's pretty tough to bet against any development this year.

Duffy · #98 Postby **Duffy** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:33 am

i've seen sites where ppl actually make Wagers on Landfalls and what not
just like they have sites on High Profile Criminal Trials, they bet on the Verdicts

x-y-no · #99 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:45 am

12Z GFS takes it through the Florida Straits and recurves into SW Florida.

That's at about 180 hours - so I wouldn't exactly get excited yet. :-)

Edit: Also, it develops the African wave but keeps it out to sea.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #100 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 11:53 am

12Z GFS takes it through the Florida Straits and recurves into SW Florida.

That's at about 180 hours - so I wouldn't exactly get excited yet.

That would really be horrible if it panned out especially after what Charley did...I hope it stays way south of SW florida... the models above seem to bring it much further south though so hopefully it stays away

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