A question for everyone here

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Derecho
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Re: A question for everyone here

#41 Postby Derecho » Mon Jul 25, 2005 10:56 am

Derek Ortt wrote:I am curious as to why everyone is placing so much stock in the inferior FSU MM5 model, even after being told many times that the MM5 is simply not good at that poor of a resolution?


I'm more curious as to why ANY version of the MM5 is treated like a big deal around here; I mean, it's an old model and I don't see much evidence that any version of it has any sort of particularly interesting skill on a cumulative basis for tropical forecasting (not that singular anomalies can't be found, as with the utterly worthless Canadian, which can be a blind-squirrel-finding-a-nut every 20 storms or so.)
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#42 Postby wx247 » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:01 am

HurryKane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:I'm admonishing people about it, because I have stated this fact 10,000 times already... yet some don't or don't want to listen

The MM5 is a great model, but not the way it is being ran at FSU (In a perfect world, I'd run it at 5km, but we don't have the computing power to do that realistically in real time


Like I said, not everyone has read every single one of your posts. Some people may not have understood why the FSU MM5 is bad. Others may have only seen you say it once or twice. Giving people the benefit of the doubt is the nice thing to do.

The information you've relayed about the MM5 in this post, and in the previous post about the terrain and resolution, is no doubt important. Please consider consolidating such information into something you can reference when someone gets on the FSU MM5 train. All it would take is a link to a couple of paragraphs you've written and a comment like "Please see this information about the FSU MM5 before giving it too much weight."

Then, instead of chastising people for not knowing something, you've had a chance to teach them. The latter is a far greater endeavor both in accomplishment and in deed.


Forgive me for nesting, but... :clap: :clap:
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#43 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:04 am

I don't put much faith in the FSU MM5.

Why do some folks?

1) It's all we do have access to for MM5 runs

2) It's overly aggressive, developing storms, which feeds
the wishkasting community.
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Derek Ortt

#44 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:11 am

The one we run at UM has shown a HIGH amount of skill and has been documented in the literature when it has been run on historical storms for research purposes (10 day tracks have been outstanding, and it got the loop for Jeanne as well)

The advantage it has is that it can be run at 15-12 km resolution for the synoptic environment, meaning, unlike the global models, it can mroe accurately depict the trough and ridge positions to a far better accuracy
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#45 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 25, 2005 11:15 am

Downdraft wrote:John Hope used to say sometimes you just needed to sit down and go back to plotting the isobars by hand to get a feeling for what a storm is going to do. I wonder how many "experts" today could plot isobars by hand? It seems the more we depend on technology the less we remember the basics. Over the years so many have placed their faith in computer models only to have eat generous portions of some model's crow.


I can. I still make my forecasters analyze the charts...the old difax charts. I tell them if they can micro-analyze a bare chart...and get an idea of what a system (short-wave...etc) looks like and get the feel for it...in other words...major on the basics of meteorology...they can then look at the forecasts and the models and understand a whole lot better.

Unfortunetly...in the Air Force at least...what we are training is a bunch of model readers...and not analytical mets. It's been going on since the mid 90's and is only getting worse. They rely on modeling soooo much...and don't even get taught (or remember) the basic rules of progging a system.

Very frustrating. :mad:
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#46 Postby Wthrman13 » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:02 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:The one we run at UM has shown a HIGH amount of skill and has been documented in the literature when it has been run on historical storms for research purposes (10 day tracks have been outstanding, and it got the loop for Jeanne as well)

The advantage it has is that it can be run at 15-12 km resolution for the synoptic environment, meaning, unlike the global models, it can mroe accurately depict the trough and ridge positions to a far better accuracy


Could you provide a few references? I'd be interested in seeing them.
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wxcrazytwo

#47 Postby wxcrazytwo » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:08 pm

I have no clue about models and stuff, that is why I rely on y'all mets to do that. However, it would be nice.
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Derek Ortt

#48 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:46 pm

the study done on Hurricane Lili by Melecie Desflots (2004 AMS trop met conference paper... not sure if the track is in there or not... was in the ppt I will try and dig that up)

Also, John Cangialosi's masters thesis on Georges

This is the first eyar we are running the model in real-time though so the results may be different
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mike18xx

#49 Postby mike18xx » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:36 pm

Air Force Met wrote:Unfortunetly...in the Air Force at least...what we are training is a bunch of model readers...and not analytical mets. It's been going on since the mid 90's and is only getting worse. They rely on modeling soooo much...and don't even get taught (or remember) the basic rules of progging a system. Very frustrating. :mad:
Amen, brother.
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#50 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:41 pm

ericinmia wrote:What about the Air Force MM5.... I'm not sure what resolution that on is run at.

For how important these things are... why can't we devote more copmuting power/resources to them. Coming from the IT field, this is very easily feesible. With the proper grants.
-Eric


Derek, if you know, please correct me, but the way I read this,
https://afweather.afwa.af.mil/observer/ ... _____.html

the AF version that we are familiar with is run at 15 km resolution.

As for the second part of your post... I am not sure what the purpose of the model is. I doubt it is being used as a 'word of God' forecast tool. In fact, I wonder to some degree, if it is a toy (hesitate to use the word toy in conjuction with a forecast model, but still) for Dr Hart and/or one or more of his grad students. It could be also some sort of trial test or something, nothing near a final work, I don't know.

From what my uncle (who is CTO of Virginia Tech) said to me, it doesn't sound like FSU's computing division gets that much money... so much of it gets spent on mundane stuff like general purpose computer labs. He brought it up in the context of talking to FSU's CTO about how VT had the money for their supercomputer. Part of the reason was that VT requires every student to have a computer of their own. Because of that they don't have nearly the number of general purpose computers (and supporting staff) that FSU has. From what he said, FSU was going down the same road as VT did.

I may have misread it, but I seem to remember reading something that implied that the computing resources for the Superensemble are somehwere other than FSU.

As we don't know what the exact purpose of it, we can't say that it is underpowered, though if it is supposed to be a complete serious tool then that is the case and that is why it is run at a low resolution.

LATER

This
http://alpha.lasalle.edu/~didio/courses ... asting.htm

suggests that while it was run on UCAR resources at one time, that the superensemble is now run on a supercomputer belonging to FSU.
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Derek Ortt

#51 Postby Derek Ortt » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:09 pm

I believe the AF is globally run at 45km, with smaller nests over certain areas. It's more of a global model than a regional one, which we are running
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#52 Postby Air Force Met » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:13 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe the AF is globally run at 45km, with smaller nests over certain areas. It's more of a global model than a regional one, which we are running


That is correct. 45KM is the global resolution with individual bases/AORs being run at 15km. At my base I have a 45km resolution meteogram and one that is 15km resolution.
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#53 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:19 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I believe the AF is globally run at 45km, with smaller nests over certain areas. It's more of a global model than a regional one, which we are running


Bah, I failed this reading comprehension exercise:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/mm5 ... index.html

What you say coincides with what the link I posted earier says. It is a 45 km global model with relocatable 15 km nests. My initial reading of the link made me think that the output we see from one of those nests, but seeing the above link and re-reading the article makes me realize otherwise...

AFAIK there aren't any sites that display the output from the nests...
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#54 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:23 pm

Well, if you boys would buy one of these red hot IBM Blue Gene
Supercomputers, you could run it a 1CM resolution. :lol:

The Department of Energy has a IBM Blue Gene System, 65,536 PowerPC
processors, 136 teraflops sustained - AMAZING!

http://www.top500.org/sublist/System.php?id=7605
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#55 Postby clfenwi » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:29 pm

dhweather wrote:Well, if you boys would buy one of these red hot IBM Blue Gene
Supercomputers, you could run it a 1CM resolution. :lol:

The Department of Energy has a IBM Blue Gene System, 65,536 PowerPC
processors, 136 teraflops sustained - AMAZING!

http://www.top500.org/sublist/System.php?id=7605


Well, Virginia Tech's cost 'only' 5.2 million (and was in the top 10 when it debuted)... so cheap that I think I'll take two... :wink:
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#56 Postby HurryKane » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:30 pm

dhweather wrote:Well, if you boys would buy one of these red hot IBM Blue Gene
Supercomputers, you could run it a 1CM resolution. :lol:

The Department of Energy has a IBM Blue Gene System, 65,536 PowerPC
processors, 136 teraflops sustained - AMAZING!

http://www.top500.org/sublist/System.php?id=7605


Yeah, but the Japanese, they are itching to kick that Blue Gene's hiney with a 10 petaflop system: http://tinyurl.com/7qla2


Hooyah!
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#57 Postby dhweather » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:33 pm

Sounds like they are abandoning their vector processors and going massively parallel.
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