Trouble Ahead, New Euro Thinks so.

Wnghs2007 · #1 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:51 pm

The 12z Euro Shows a possible Tropical Cyclone North of the Dominican Republic on Day 7, it has this feature as a small L on day 6 and then strengthens it to a closed low on Day 7.

Please Read the Black Text I put in the image...

#2 Postby **dgparent** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:57 pm

Glad to hear it I am bored with Frankie already, lets get moving on something else

mike18xx · #3 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:59 pm

Image isn't showing up.

artist · #4 Postby **artist** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 1:59 pm

The link or picture are not working.

Wnghs2007 · #5 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:01 pm

Now it is....sorry, I moved it from my Wnghs2007 Photobucket album to my sub album called storm2k....and it broke the direct link...

mike18xx · #6 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:01 pm

I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

Wnghs2007 · #7 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:02 pm

mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

What do you think this is? The GFS? :hehe:

mike18xx · #8 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:06 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.
So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....

Do you have a main page link we could access loops at?

it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

that may be a symptom of being overly conservative....has it failed to predict any systems with DID develop?

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:07 pm

The 12z Euro Shows a possible Tropical Cycloneye North of the Dominican Republic on Day 7

I think I will fix that KC.

#10 Postby **P.K.** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:07 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

The ensemble forecasts we get to see at university from the ECMWF do tend to be very good, but they should be able to go get the weather right for that area as the ECMWF is just down the road from the met department. :lol:

Edit - To answer a latter post there are no loops, but the main page is at http://www.ecmwf.int

#11 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:08 pm

Check out this link too for future possibilities as the GFS sees it:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=144hr

Then the MM5fsu shows a few other interesting possibilities:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... hour=120hr

Wnghs2007 · #12 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:09 pm

mike18xx wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.
So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....
Do you have a main page link we could access loops at?
it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...
that may be a symptom of being overly conservative....has it failed to predict any systems with DID develop?

http://www.ecmwf.int/

#13 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 2:16 pm

>>that may be a symptom of being overly conservative....has it failed to predict any systems with DID develop?

It underplayed a couple of them with a southern bias and out to the Pacific. But the European model is also my model of choice for the 4-6 day period. There's a better link to more detailed models than their own. If I posted the one to their site and the North American run (either surface or 850), it would make this thread 5 screens wide. What you do is go to Google, type in ECMWF. Click the first link. Click on the maps. Click on North America on the left side, then choose the current or current -12 hours to run the loops.

There's a more detailed version of the ECMWF that comes out on the College of DuPage's website, but they don't get the data in all that fast. Nevertheless, I recommend checking it out from time to time - especially with the Cape Verde season - since it doesn't have the heat problems (aka "up and out") with recurvature that most of the US Generated models have.

Here's the link to the DuPage runs:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Steve

southerngale · #14 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:02 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

What do you think this is? The GFS?

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the GFS has done well this year, so far anyway.

wxcrazytwo · #15 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:04 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

What do you think this is? The GFS?

I hope that is not you in that avatar...

clfenwi · #16 Postby **clfenwi** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:06 pm

southerngale wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

What do you think this is? The GFS?

Actually, if I'm not mistaken, the GFS has done well this year, so far anyway.

I believe the reference is to the scale feedback/convection feedback issues that the GFS was displaying in the GOM back in June. It wanted to bomb out just about anything that it came across in the BOC area.

As far as track forecasting goes, despite occasional quirks (like when it suddenly wanted to put Emily into Belize), it seems to have done well, according to a couple of NHC discussions and a comment by Mr. Sutherland on the analysis board.

I don't think it has any kind of admirable record, however, when it comes to cyclone formation.

Anonymous · #17 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:06 pm

cycloneye wrote:The 12z Euro Shows a possible Tropical Cyclone North of the Dominican Republic on Day 7

Yep, I still think a cane though.

Website · #18 Postby **Brent** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:12 pm

wxcrazytwo wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

What do you think this is? The GFS?

I hope that is not you in that avatar...

It is.

I've seen his picture before on another board... :wink:

Hurricaneman · #19 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:13 pm

Ok thats cool then

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 3:14 pm

wxcrazytwo wrote:
Wnghs2007 wrote:
mike18xx wrote:I wish I had a nickel for every Day 7 model-indicated tropical entity which failed to materialize.

So far you would be pretty poor if you were going against the ecmwf....it has not showed really any phantoms all year long...

This is the model I would put my trust in before any other model....

What do you think this is? The GFS?

I hope that is not you in that avatar...

Take it easy please.

Trouble Ahead, New Euro Thinks so.

Trouble Ahead, New Euro Thinks so.

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