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#1 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:03 am

*pulls up a chair to a beautifully set table, with a nicely roasted bird surrounded by baby potatoes... seasoned to perfection along.... with a bowl of some type of pudding and a great big steaming pie*

Dear NHC,
Well... with great 'pulling of hair' and 'gnashing of teeth' I loudly declared last night in teamspeak... and a bit of a comment here... that I was having "convulsions" over the NHC's track/discussion. There was NO WAY that Franklin was going NE .. or E.. or NW.. or any northernly/easterly direction at all. It was going south or south west and maybe loopy a bit at some point. Though I normally didn't go against them I just didn't "see it this time".

NHC... I was wrong to treat you so! It's time for my Just desserts! Some crow pudding! And that's not all... This beautiful roasted crow w/ spring baby potatoes! And an extra serving of HUMBLE pie to follow.

The now humbled and chastised,
Christine aka Pebbles

*finishes her letter and digs in*

P.S. Max Mayfield.. I didn't use the tracking map I pinned on my wall that you gave me for the twelfth week of the tropics, like I was suppose to... Shame on me!

NEXRAD · #2 Postby **NEXRAD** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:50 am

I think many are having some crow with regards to Franklin. I'm having mine for breakfast, figured it'd make an okay omlette. "Hurricane Franklin" goes down as a nuisance storm from a forecast perspective.

Jay
KSC FL

x-y-no · #3 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:53 am

Yes indeed. Franklin has been a source of forced humility for a lot of us. 8-)

Aquawind · #4 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:56 am

No worrries.. You do a great job Christine.

Geesh you make it sound so good I think Max would even sit down at the table with ya.. Heck I want the leftovers for the next Crowfest at my house.. :lol:

Paul

stormcrow · #5 Postby **stormcrow** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 7:56 am

More relative gone, I hope that crow doesn't become an endangered species this season.

beachbum_al · #6 Postby **beachbum_al** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:03 am

Give me some crow. :lol:

Last night when I look at the loop I thought it was going south myself but then I am not a met. Just someone who lives along the Gulf Coast that deals with storms.

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:04 am

Personally I never bought the recruve track. Didn't see it happening. Even when it started moving south yesterday I posted that I thought it was due to weak steering flow and that the center was getting tugged along by the convection. But I fugured all this would become evident over time and the recurve crew would wake up to the eastward movement today (although it happened a little later than I thought). My reasons were that I didn't think Frankling was far enough west to get caught under the building high. Once it got past 75W I figured that was it a goner. Especially once it started getting hammered from the NW and the convection got yanked south then SE. It's really hard for a LLC to move back west when its getting hammered from the NW. A lot of people bought into the BAMS but forgot that storms north of 20 aren't handled well by them...they don't sense changes in steering flow over time that well.

So...no surprises here

The NHC did a good job overall...but to underline a point I made a few days ago...when the models have problems...so do they...and the reasons behind the good forecasts on Dennis and Emily was because of good model consensus. IF we could always be that lucky :lol:

#8 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:18 am

There is plenty of room at the table for any who wish to join me. I go through great pains in preparing meals... even crow ones... and I find eating by myself so sad :cry:

besides ...if I ate all this food by myself just think how much weight I would gain!! :lol:

Air Force Met - I find the times I am most wrong about things tend to be the biggest learning experiences.

The tropics/weather is constantly teaching us all new things about it... which is why they are so very interesting.

x-y-no · #9 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 8:23 am

Air Force Met wrote:Personally I never bought the recruve track. Didn't see it happening. Even when it started moving south yesterday I posted that I thought it was due to weak steering flow and that the center was getting tugged along by the convection. But I fugured all this would become evident over time and the recurve crew would wake up to the eastward movement today (although it happened a little later than I thought). My reasons were that I didn't think Frankling was far enough west to get caught under the building high. Once it got past 75W I figured that was it a goner. Especially once it started getting hammered from the NW and the convection got yanked south then SE. It's really hard for a LLC to move back west when its getting hammered from the NW. A lot of people bought into the BAMS but forgot that storms north of 20 aren't handled well by them...they don't sense changes in steering flow over time that well.

Well, my two crisis moments came a little earlier. Thursday night, I was convinced the NHC was well off on their position, because I could see a circulation right on the coast of Eleuthra, and the official position was about .7 degree north of that. I was convinced at that time that he was just drifting in the Bahamas and would miss the connection with the trough.

Friday morning, he'd tracked well northwest, and was moving at a decent clip of 8 knots or so. At that point, I was sure he would catch the connection and head away NE, then ENE eventually. I had one more moment of doubt later that afternoon, though, when he seemed to be slowing down and drifting a little south of east.

So...no surprises here The NHC did a good job overall...but to underline a point I made a few days ago...when the models have problems...so do they...and the reasons behind the good forecasts on Dennis and Emily was because of good model consensus. IF we could always be that lucky

Yeah ... but life would be much more boring without bifurcations and the resulting chaos.

mike18xx · #10 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:05 pm

Take that crow off your plate, Pebbles, and put it back in its cage -- because Franklin is moving southwest again.

#11 Postby **Downdraft** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:10 pm

I love trying to "beat" the experts. But, I always remember they are the experts.

gkrangers · #12 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:24 pm

Yep..west as of 1700z.

#13 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:32 pm

gkrangers wrote:Yep..west as of 1700z.

I think it's doing a cyclonic loop. The vortmax is going (IMO) to rotate around to the south and then back towards the east in a coupkle of hours...towards the convection. There is basically no movement of the overall circulation...its the LLC rotating around inside the larger ciculation. It may be stalled for a while...but it is not coming back to the CONUS...IMO. Just going to stay stalled or slowly move NE-ENE and wait for the next shortwave.

gkrangers · #14 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:35 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Yep..west as of 1700z.

I think it's doing a cyclonic loop. The vortmax is going (IMO) to rotate around to the south and then back towards the east in a coupkle of hours...towards the convection. There is basically no movement of the overall circulation...its the LLC rotating around inside the larger ciculation. It may be stalled for a while...but it is not coming back to the CONUS...IMO. Just going to stay stalled or slowly move NE-ENE and wait for the next shortwave.

Sounds familiar.

#15 Postby **Pebbles** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:36 pm

mike18xx wrote:Take that crow off your plate, Pebbles, and put it back in its cage -- because Franklin is moving southwest again.

*burps loudly while rubbing her over-full tummy* OH MY... how unlady like! *blush* Wish I could but I think Franklin would just humble me more... think he's just circling around out there like Air Force Met says!

mike18xx · #16 Postby **mike18xx** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:44 pm

An interesting one to keep an eye on:

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/loops/wvrgnlloop.master.pl?noam&type=wv

gkrangers · #17 Postby **gkrangers** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:54 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Yep..west as of 1700z.

I think it's doing a cyclonic loop. The vortmax is going (IMO) to rotate around to the south and then back towards the east in a coupkle of hours...towards the convection. There is basically no movement of the overall circulation...its the LLC rotating around inside the larger ciculation. It may be stalled for a while...but it is not coming back to the CONUS...IMO. Just going to stay stalled or slowly move NE-ENE and wait for the next shortwave.

The last sat I looked at only had the west movement. Now its made a westerly leg, and a southerly leg. We'll see if it jogs east now.

Sanibel · #18 Postby **Sanibel** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 12:55 pm

Off-Topic:

They closed TWC Tropical Board for a troll cleaning...

#19 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Jul 25, 2005 4:28 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
gkrangers wrote:Yep..west as of 1700z.

I think it's doing a cyclonic loop. The vortmax is going (IMO) to rotate around to the south and then back towards the east in a couple of hours...towards the convection. There is basically no movement of the overall circulation...its the LLC rotating around inside the larger ciculation. It may be stalled for a while...but it is not coming back to the CONUS...IMO. Just going to stay stalled or slowly move NE-ENE and wait for the next shortwave.

Da da.....now moving east again...cyclonic loop almost complete...now we just wait to see how far east it moves before it stalls. If it moves far enough...the steering flow will tighten up enough so that it will begin a real movement to the NE.

#20 Postby **Pebbles** » Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:06 pm

I've still got gobs of leftovers...

Also we are now taking orders at Pebbles Delectable Crow Catering for future events... Place your orders now!

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