Franklin Movement Mid Saturday

NEXRAD · #21 Postby **NEXRAD** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:11 pm

I've been watching this too, and am thinking that there's a due east movement overall. The surface to mid-level steering over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic is straight out of the west, supportive of Franklin moving directly east. I don't see any reason the storm should curve southwest during the next 24-hours, but a more ESE storm motion might take place if the mid-level ridging over the SE US becomes better established late tonight.

- Jay
KSC FL

#22 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:15 pm

NEXRAD wrote:I've been watching this too, and am thinking that there's a due east movement overall. The surface to mid-level steering over Florida and the adjacent Atlantic is straight out of the west, supportive of Franklin moving directly east. I don't see any reason the storm should curve southwest during the next 24-hours, but a more ESE storm motion might take place if the mid-level ridging over the SE US becomes better established late tonight.

- Jay
KSC FL

so what do you think this means for Franklins eventual path?

<RICKY>

jhamps10 · #23 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:17 pm

does anyone except Franklin know his path, or does Franklin even know where he's going? :lol:

JamesFromMaine2 · #24 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:19 pm

lol I don't think Franklin even knows where he is going! lol he is so upset after the death of his sister that hes just aimlessly going around! lol

jhamps10 · #25 Postby **jhamps10** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:30 pm

Hey guys, just looking at latest vis. shot, and to those who may think that Franklin will be going NE, It's not. It's going SSE.

NEXRAD · #26 Postby **NEXRAD** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:37 pm

Actually, from the DVORAK IR imagery, Franklin's nudge to the south might be false and instead be representative of a tightening vortex. You can see this by looking at the limited bands/convection north of the center, where these have been retracted inwards over the past few hours. I'd be surprised if there is an outright south motion going on... maybe ESE but beyond that would surprise me.

WeatherEmperor: a more southerly track would, in my opinion, leave Franklin in an environment less influenced by N-Atlantic troughing, and might then allow a stalled motion.

- Jay
KSC FL

#27 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:39 pm

I dont get it. so why does the 5pm franklin advisory say ENE9?

<RICKY>

NEXRAD · #28 Postby **NEXRAD** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:51 pm

I'm not sure, WeatherEmperor. Likely it's based on a reconaissance report rather than the satellite data alone. I'd suggest that Franklin's circulation is tilted a little N to S, but scanning the satellite frames, I really would be more comfortable if the TPC slated Franklin at 29.7N or so. Also, I believe the TPC's "5PM" advisory is really based on 4 or 4:30 PM data... but don't quote me on that! Finally, there might be some system reorganization going on.

Jay
KSC FL

#29 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:54 pm

NEXRAD wrote:I'm not sure, WeatherEmperor. Likely it's based on a reconaissance report rather than the satellite data alone. I'd suggest that Franklin's circulation is tilted a little N to S, but scanning the satellite frames, I really would be more comfortable if the TPC slated Franklin at 29.7N or so. Also, I believe the TPC's "5PM" advisory is really based on 4 or 4:30 PM data... but don't quote me on that! Finally, there might be some system reorganization going on.

Jay
KSC FL

I will quote you on that. muhahahahaha! :grr:

just kidding.

<RICKY>

NEXRAD · #30 Postby **NEXRAD** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 3:56 pm

Oh no! If you quote me, and I'm wrong, maybe Max Mayfield will call me to correct me.

Ah, wishful thinking... If anyone here does know about the inside workings of the TPC, I am curious of when their advisories are completed and what time the data is based on. I have seen discrepancies from time to time.

Jay
KSC FL

x-y-no · #31 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:01 pm

NEXRAD wrote:I'm not sure, WeatherEmperor. Likely it's based on a reconaissance report rather than the satellite data alone. I'd suggest that Franklin's circulation is tilted a little N to S, but scanning the satellite frames, I really would be more comfortable if the TPC slated Franklin at 29.7N or so. Also, I believe the TPC's "5PM" advisory is really based on 4 or 4:30 PM data... but don't quote me on that! Finally, there might be some system reorganization going on.

Jay
KSC FL

Reorganization may be the answer. I can't find any good reason in the steering for anything other than an ENE motion, but to my eye it sure looks like a slow ESE drift.

If this stalls and misses the connection, then either I have to find a justification for pretending my comments this morning don't count, or else I have the sad distinction of having busted twice in quick succession on this storm.

:grr:

Jan

mtm4319 · #32 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:04 pm

I can actually see why they'd fix the center at 29.9, it's just that a vast majority of convection is to the south of the center.

x-y-no · #33 Postby **x-y-no** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:05 pm

NEXRAD wrote::eek: Oh no! If you quote me, and I'm wrong, maybe Max Mayfield will call me to correct me.

Ah, wishful thinking... If anyone here does know about the inside workings of the TPC, I am curious of when their advisories are completed and what time the data is based on. I have seen discrepancies from time to time.

Jay
KSC FL

The archives of the Talkin' Tropics show should have the interview with Stacy Stewart from last spring. I remember Mike asked him about the forecast cycle at TPC. Basically, you're right about when they finalize the product. The exception, I guess, would be the inclusion of last-minute recon data.

Jan

#34 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:05 pm

mtm4319 wrote:

I can actually see why they'd fix the center at 29.9, it's just that a vast majority of convection is to the south of the center.

damn that is a nice satellite! can you give me a link to those sat pics?

<RICKY>

NEXRAD · #35 Postby **NEXRAD** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:06 pm

Hi Jan,

If you average the predominant wind directions across the 850, 700, and 500mb levels, a west to east flow is established in general. I'll agree it's slightly north of due east, though. There's something of a weak, small, upper ridge over and immediately east of Franklin. That feature might be playing some sort of a role as well, but the height (300mb and above) doesn't suggest that too strongly to me.

We all bust a forecast at times, Franklin's been a tough storm to forecast.

- Jay
KSC FL

mtm4319 · #36 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:06 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:damn that is a nice satellite! can you give me a link to those sat pics?

<RICKY>

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/goes/RTAP/

mtm4319 · #37 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:08 pm

Here's a closer look with the IR:

The brightest whites are centered right around where the NHC 5pm position is.

#38 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:17 pm

thanks man!

<RICKY>

mtm4319 · #39 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:18 pm

I refreshed that IR and the little "bright white" area I was talking about moved just south of east.

Just saying. :lol:

#40 Postby **EDR1222** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 4:41 pm

It definately appears that he has not been gaining any latitude the past few hours.

Franklin Movement Mid Saturday

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