91L Invest

[tailgater]

Don't think this has been posted yet.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION IN
THE WAVE OVERNIGHT INDICATED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS TO NEAR 35
MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR PERHAPS A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

PSST, why was "RESEACH MISSION " down there, must have been checking out the beaches in CANCUN. oookay.

[Derek Ortt]

IFEX genesis mission

[clfenwi]

Don't think this has been posted yet.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 230902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS TO HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION IN
THE WAVE OVERNIGHT INDICATED THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS TO NEAR 35
MPH IN A FEW SQUALLS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATER TODAY...WHERE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR PERHAPS A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

PSST, why was "RESEACH MISSION " down there, must have been checking out the beaches in CANCUN. oookay.

Associated with the research mission in Costa Rica: http://camex.msfc.nasa.gov/tcsp/index.html

[Portastorm]

eh, to the untrained eye looks nothing more than a strong tropical wave.

[KatDaddy]

Invest looks better overall but I do not see much room for development before moving into Mexico and its close proximity to land.

[Derek Ortt]

no surprise at all that the recon is cancelled as there is nothing in the area to investigate

models really dont form this into more than a TD or possibly a weak TS at the worst

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

Not surprised... I don't see anything down there.

[mike18xx]

Actually it's moved offshore into the BoC already; IMO, it'll be back into Mexico before before doing better than TS.

I.e., another Bret.

[WeatherEmperor]

looks like Gert will have to wait for another day boys.

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

Looks slower than expected. The fact that the center is diurnal deep flaring while over land is telling you this will get big once it gets back over water.

I think you are underplaying this and its slow movement should be watched for movement towards the US...

[jasons2k]

Looks slower than expected. The fact that the center is diurnal deep flaring while over land is telling you this will get big once it gets back over water.

I think you are underplaying this and its slow movement should be watched for movement towards the US...

I have to disagree, for one I think the center is already near 93 and 19.5 and it has nowhere to go but W or WNW. There is no reason for this to pull northward IMO.

[deltadog03]

forget the stuff in the BOC...i want to know about that blob over the eastern part of the penn....are you guys talking about that??

[Sanibel]

Oooops! Should have looked at the visible loop before commenting. The flare-up over Yucatan is just a diurnal convection bank related to the disturbance. The actual center is in the very lower part of the Bay Of Campeche and is probably weakened by Emily's recent passing. It doesn't look like much and should burn up over Mexico...

[ohiostorm]

000
WONT41 KNHC 231805
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2005

SATELLITE DATA...AND SURFACE REPORTS FROM MEXICO AND NOAA BUOY 42055
...INDICATE A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLOWLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE DISTURBANCE. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IN
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN AND NEAR THE EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN COAST OF
MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SINCE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO
NORTH OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$

[gkrangers]

No big deal, but we will at the very least probably get #7 out of this, and maybe even use up Gert.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN (AL072005) ON 20050723 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050723 1800 050724 0600 050724 1800 050725 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.3N 92.9W 20.1N 95.1W 20.8N 97.4W 21.3N 99.2W
BAMM 19.3N 92.9W 20.0N 95.1W 20.6N 97.4W 21.4N 99.3W
A98E 19.3N 92.9W 19.9N 94.6W 20.7N 96.5W 21.8N 98.4W
LBAR 19.3N 92.9W 19.9N 95.0W 20.9N 97.6W 22.1N 100.6W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800 050728 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 100.7W 20.7N 103.3W 19.7N 105.4W 20.1N 107.6W
BAMM 22.1N 100.8W 22.6N 103.3W 22.8N 105.0W 24.0N 106.8W
A98E 22.9N 100.8W 25.2N 104.6W 25.8N 106.5W 26.6N 107.9W
LBAR 23.4N 103.2W 26.5N 106.9W 28.8N 108.3W 30.9N 109.6W
SHIP 40KTS 48KTS 57KTS 62KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 92.9W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.6N LONM12 = 91.1W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 88.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Models have it as TD#7.

[Nimbus]

Gert thread is locked.
NHC said Gert reformed at the northern end of the wave.
As per yesterdays discussion the northern coast of Mexico had terrible flooding problems from Emily and her slow motion inland.
Apparantly there is also a problem with the Mexican government not wishing to move the tropical storm warnings for Gert further north.