TS Gert Recon Reports

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:11 am

Well here we go again for the squadron which has been very busy in the first weeks of the season.This first mission will start this afternoon at:

23/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 23/1530Z
D. 20.5N 92.5W
E. 24/0500Z TO 24/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

The above from the TWO.

If they cancel at the last minute this sticky will be out.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:19 am

I think a Cancel is better then even chance by the looks of the system. Radar out of the area show no signs of a system. With what ever LLC very broad. The convection is very disoreganized.

djones65 · #3 Postby **djones65** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:28 am

Are we looking at the same system?
Yes, the convection has warmed and is not concentrated, but the banding and curvature of the cloud mass continues to improve. Even in IR imagery there is in my opinion extremely impressive rotation in the low level cloud field and the center of circulation is just about to emerge off the western Yucatan. The recon will not be canceled. The center is near 19.5N and 90.5W. The low level turning is very strong and once over water the convection will increase. This is a very large circulation.
Go to this site and click on "Visible and IR floater" the left box. The box on the right is for Franklin. http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

wxwatcher91 · #4 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:29 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I think a Cancel is better then even chance by the looks of the system. Radar out of the area show no signs of a system. With what ever LLC very broad. The convection is very disoreganized.

ya IT'S OVER LAND

once over the water 91L will soon be Gert

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #5 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:30 am

Not quite defined enough to be a depression. I will wait a few more hours.

If this doe's become Gert that would be something.

wxwatcher91 · #6 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:34 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Not quite defined enough to be a depression. I will wait a few more hours.

If this doe's become Gert that would be something.

most tropical systems get unorganized over land so ya not looking the best now but seriously it will move out over 30C waters! we will have Gert tonight or first thing tomorrow

#7 Postby **tailgater** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:36 am

Matt the only question I have will it be a # or a name, true we don't have a tiny well formed center (as we've had with the latest storms) but a broad circ. fairly evident in the curvature of the lower clouds. This will be a much larger system and take longer to wrap up but everything seems to be in place except a WELL defined center.

wxwatcher91 · #8 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:39 am

tailgater wrote:Matt the only question I have will it be a # or a name, true we don't have a tiny well formed center (as we've had with the latest storms) but a broad circ. fairly evident in the curvature of the lower clouds. This will be a much larger system and take longer to wrap up but everything seems to be in place except a WELL defined center.

yeah I think that we will have TD 7 at 5pm and Gert by the next advisory

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 6:43 am

Is important to note that they are going ahead with the mission mentioning it at the 5:30 outlook distint from other times when they wait for the 11:30 TWO to say if they cancel or not.That tells me they are seeing things develop quickly there.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #10 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 7:46 am

The sytstem is now over the BOC. The shear is moving westward quickly which the enviroment is becoming more favable. I think the system center is right under that small area of convection.

Thunder44 · #11 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 7:59 am

I wouldn't be suprised if they cancelled today. The system doesn't look very organzied now.

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 9:33 am

Thunder44 wrote:I wouldn't be suprised if they cancelled today. The system doesn't look very organzied now.

I wouldn't either.

Thunder44 · #13 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:06 am

from the 11:30 TWO:

A tropical wave located over the western Yucatan Peninsula and the
Eastern Bay of Campeche is producing widespread cloudiness and
showers across much of the Yucatan Peninsula...southeastern
Mexico...and the Bay of Campeche. Thunderstorm activity has
decreased and has become less organized this morning. As a result
...The Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance flight previously
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon has been
cancelled. However...conditions remain favorable for the tropical
wave to develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm
during the next day or so before the system reaches northeastern
Mexico. A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research flight into
this general area today and will be sending back additional
information on this system.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:14 am

Ok as I said in first post if it was not going sticky out.

wxwatcher91 · #15 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:14 am

we'll have to see what the "additional information" is...

it actually does look kinda organized ...like the cloud-cover but there's no convection at all...

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:35 am

Is the estimated low pressure over water or still over land?

clfenwi · #17 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:41 am

HURAKAN wrote:Is the estimated low pressure over water or still over land?

The position that the 12Z limited area models were initialized with is over water.

#18 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:42 am

clfenwi wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:Is the estimated low pressure over water or still over land?

The position that the 12Z limited area models were initialized with is over water.

Ok, then it may need more time to develop, remember Bret?

Derek Ortt · #19 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:53 am

big difference with this and bret was bret moved into the BOC with a closed surface circulation. This one does not have one, meaning it needs time to form one and conditions do not appear to be quite as favorable now as they were with Bret. Still could get a TD or weak TS

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 23, 2005 10:56 am

A NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research flight into
this general area today and will be sending back additional
information on this system.

Derek what kind of mission this noaa plane will do?

TS Gert Recon Reports

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