TS Franklin Recon Reports

[clfenwi]

Models are set to 55kts now!!

Perhaps they are flying at 700mb, because 62kts reduces to about 56kts at the surface.

Negs... look at the pressure and radar altitudes ...1500-1600 meters... that's 850 mb level ... 700 mb level is 3000 meters or so...

ok thanks, must be another reason, perhaps the met on board looked at the ocean waves an estimated higher winds.

Because of the dropsonde ob (OB 12) probably... 59 knots at the surface...take off a few knots to be conservative (in case it was a gust)... and there you are at 55 knots...

Ok, I just saw that.

Well, I decoded the dadgum thing and it didn't exactly click when drezee posted about the model initializations...I was thinking 'gee, why did they do that?' ... I had to look back to realize...

clfenwi can be quite slow in the morning... especially when he sees off the previous night's recon mission...

[clfenwi]

70 mph! Good gravy!
referring to 11 AM advisory

[clfenwi]

OB 15
Time: 1447Z
Position: 30.4 North // 74.0 West
Flight level: 1520 meters
FL winds: 36 knots // 180
Temp/Dewpoint:18/11
Weather: Overcast
850 millibar height: 1548 meters
Surface winds: 35 knots // 160


URNT11 KNHC 231452
97779 14474 70304 74000 15200 18036 18113 /2548
41635
RMK AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 15

[clfenwi]

Storm FRANKLIN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #06 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 52KT (59.8mph 96.3km/h) In SW Quadrant At 11:32:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 46.8KT (53.8mph 86.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: MAX FL TEMP 20 C 295 / 17 NM FROM FL CNTR
Date/Time of Recon Report: 23/13:34:30Z
Position of the center: 29° 22' N 075° 13' W (29.4°N 75.2°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1452m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40 KT (46MPH 74.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 017nm (19.55miles) From Center At Bearing 295°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 046KT (52.9mph 85.2km/h) From 345°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 007nm (8.0 miles) From Center At Bearing 261°
Minimum pressure: 1001mb (29.56in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

[clfenwi]

SUPPLEMENTAL VORTEX

Storm: Storm FRANKLIN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #06 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 52KT (59.8mph 96.3km/h) In SW Quadrant At 11:32:40 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 46.8KT (53.8mph 86.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: X FL TEMP 20 C 295 / 17 NM FROM FL CNTR (Report Time: 23/1454Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 29.3N 75.4W 046KT (52.9MPH 85.2km/h) [13:04:20Z to 13:29:40Z]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 15KT (17.25MPH 27.8km/h) @ 360°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 29.0N 74.8W 062KT (71.3MPH 114.8km/h) [13:39:40Z to 14:08:00Z]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 30KT (34.5MPH 55.6km/h) @ 200°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 30.6N 76.7W 850mb Height @ 1542m 17°C 13°C 018KT (20.7MPH 33.3 km/h) @ 360°
O02 30.4N 76.5W 850mb Height @ 1540m 17°C 14°C 019KT (21.85MPH 35.2 km/h) @ 360°
O03 30.2N 76.3W 850mb Height @ 1536m 16°C 16°C 022KT (25.3MPH 40.7 km/h) @ 350°
O04 30.0N 76.1W 850mb Height @ 1532m 16°C 16°C 024KT (27.6MPH 44.5 km/h) @ 360°
O05 29.8N 75.9W 850mb Height @ 1525m 17°C 16°C 027KT (31.05MPH 50.0 km/h) @ 360°
O06 29.6N 75.7W 850mb Height @ 1511m 17°C 17°C 033KT (37.95MPH 61.1 km/h) @ 350°
O07 29.5N 75.5W 850mb Height @ 1488m 18°C 17°C 034KT (39.1MPH 63.0 km/h) @ 350°
O01 29.2N 75.0W 850mb Height @ 1486m 19°C 17°C 057KT (65.55MPH 105.6 km/h) @ 220°
O02 29.0N 74.8W 850mb Height @ 1516m 16°C 16°C 062KT (71.3MPH 114.8 km/h) @ 230°
O03 28.8N 74.6W 850mb Height @ 1542m 16°C 14°C 050KT (57.5MPH 92.6 km/h) @ 230°
O04 28.6N 74.4W 850mb Height @ 1556m 16°C 11°C 049KT (56.35MPH 90.8 km/h) @ 230°
O05 28.5N 74.2W 850mb Height @ 1566m 16°C 13°C 043KT (49.45MPH 79.6 km/h) @ 230°
O06 28.3N 74.0W 850mb Height @ 1574m 18°C 6°C 035KT (40.25MPH 64.8 km/h) @ 220°
O07 28.1N 73.8W 850mb Height @ 1581m 17°C 10°C 036KT (41.4MPH 66.7 km/h) @ 230°

[clfenwi]

1458. 3003N 07428W 01527 0081 180 033 186 144 034 01611 0000000000
1459 3002N 07429W 01518 0079 176 033 188 142 034 01601 0000000000
1459. 3001N 07431W 01528 0077 171 036 178 142 037 01608 0000000000
1500 3000N 07432W 01525 0076 168 037 176 146 037 01605 0000000000
1500. 2959N 07433W 01524 0074 173 032 192 132 035 01602 0000000000
1501 2958N 07434W 01523 0074 173 031 194 130 032 01600 0000000000
1501. 2957N 07436W 01523 0073 170 033 184 136 035 01600 0000000000
1502 2956N 07437W 01524 0071 167 033 178 140 034 01598 0000000000
1502. 2955N 07438W 01526 0069 166 034 172 148 035 01599 0000000100
1503 2954N 07439W 01523 0067 167 034 174 150 035 01593 0000000000
1503. 2953N 07440W 01524 0066 165 036 174 138 037 01593 0000000000
1504 2952N 07442W 01526 0065 160 038 186 122 039 01595 0000000000
1504. 2951N 07443W 01525 0064 156 037 186 134 039 01592 0000000000
1505 2949N 07444W 01523 0062 163 032 184 154 033 01589 0000000000
1505. 2948N 07445W 01523 0059 160 032 184 154 033 01586 0000000000
1506 2947N 07447W 01526 0057 159 031 188 138 032 01586 0000000000
1506. 2946N 07448W 01523 0054 163 028 190 150 029 01580 0000000000
1507 2945N 07449W 01525 0051 159 027 184 154 027 01579 0000000000
1507. 2944N 07450W 01524 0048 154 025 182 152 025 01576 0000000000
1508 2943N 07451W 01524 0045 145 020 182 154 023 01573 0000000000
1508. 2941N 07452W 01524 0042 141 024 178 158 024 01569 0000000000
1509 2940N 07454W 01524 0037 138 025 170 162 026 01564 0000000000
1509. 2939N 07455W 01525 0034 134 025 178 154 025 01562 0000000000
1510 2938N 07456W 01521 0031 146 026 204 146 027 01556 0000000000
1510. 2936N 07457W 01527 0028 136 026 202 150 026 01558 0000000000
1511 2935N 07458W 01524 0022 128 024 196 164 025 01550 0000000000
1511. 2934N 07459W 01523 0016 123 021 188 168 022 01542 0000000000
1512 2933N 07501W 01525 0013 121 019 196 168 021 01541 0000000000
1512. 2931N 07501W 01523 0008 106 011 204 166 013 01534 0000000000
1513 2929N 07502W 01526 0004 070 007 196 166 008 01533 0000000000
1513. 2928N 07502W 01526 0003 027 004 186 176 006 01532 0000000000
1514 2926N 07502W 01519 0003 262 002 206 170 006 01525 0000000100
1514. 2925N 07503W 01529 0003 304 011 198 176 015 01535 0000000000
1515 2924N 07504W 01522 0008 309 024 194 178 030 01533 0000000000
1515. 2922N 07506W 01521 0013 315 039 190 154 041 01538 0000000000
1516 2921N 07507W 01526 0020 323 043 192 150 044 01549 0000000000
1516. 2920N 07509W 01524 0027 321 041 176 176 043 01555 0000000000
1517 2919N 07510W 01523 0036 321 037 172 172 037 01562 0000000000
1517. 2918N 07511W 01525 0040 320 037 172 170 039 01568 0000000000
1518 2917N 07513W 01524 0041 318 041 154 154 043 01569 0000000000

You have to look at position and or wind direction to tell that they went through the northeast quad... if you just looked at wind speeds (and were unaware of the past history of this storm) you would have never guessed...

[wxwatcher91]

904
URNT12 KNHC 231531
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/15:13:20Z
B. 29 deg 28 min N
075 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 45 kt
E. 38 deg 032 nm
F. 158 deg 039 kt
G. 037 deg 029 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 19 C/ 1521 m
J. 21 C/ 1515 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 13:44:30 Z

[clfenwi]

Storm FRANKLIN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #06 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 62KT (71.3mph 114.8km/h) In SE Quadrant At 13:44:30 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 55.8KT (64.2mph 103.3km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: 23/15:13:20Z
Position of the center: 29° 28' N 075° 02' W (29.5°N 75.0°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850mb: 1456m (Normal: 1457)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 032nm (36.8miles) From Center At Bearing 38°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 039KT (44.85mph 72.2km/h) From 158°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 029nm (33.3 miles) From Center At Bearing 037°
Minimum pressure: 1002mb (29.59in)
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

[wxwatcher91]

up a mb

[Derek Ortt]

I have no idea where stewart got 60KT from. That may have been a wind gust recorded by the dropsonde. all other data suggests nothing more than 45-50KT

[clfenwi]

Observation Number: 17
Time transmitted: 1531Z
Position: 29.5 North // 75.0 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1002 mb
Surface wind speed and direction: 9 knots // 225
1000 millibar height: 19 meters
1000 millibar winds 9 // 225
925 millibar height: 706 meters
925 millibar winds: 7 knots // 250
850 millibar height: 1441 meters
850 millibar winds: 1 knot // 320
EYE

[Thunder44]

1543. 2843N 07450W 01524 0088 248 059 148 148 063 01616 0000000000

63kts at flight level.

[Derek Ortt]

equates to about 50 at the surface

also, estimates should not be used to determine the intensity of a system as they are from a long way up and are subject to much more error

[clfenwi]

1543. 2843N 07450W 01524 0088 248 059 148 148 063 01616 0000000000

63kts at flight level.

but note that the 30 sec avg was 59... not as sustained as the 62 knot ob from earlier...

[clfenwi]

equates to about 50 at the surface

also, estimates should not be used to determine the intensity of a system as they are from a long way up and are subject to much more error

I take it you are referring to visual estimates derived from observing sea state?

[clfenwi]

OB: 18
Time: 1530Z
Position: 28.8 North // 75.7 West
Flight Level: 1530 meters
FL Winds: 48 knots // 270
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 11/11
Weather: thunderstorms
850 Millibar Height: 1541 meters

URNT11 KNHC 231536
97779 15304 70288 75758 15300 27048 11119 /2541
42945
RMK AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 18

[Derek Ortt]

yes, the sea state estimates can be prone to error as they can be distorted if there is not enough light, or if clouds are in the way

[clfenwi]

yes, the sea state estimates can be prone to error as they can be distorted if there is not enough light, or if clouds are in the way

Right, I was checking to make sure my comprehension was correct.

I've been meaning to ask my father about that... as I've mentioned here before, my dad served on Navy P-3s... I seem to remember him talking about observing sea state from the air...

[clfenwi]

OB 19
Time: 1555Z
Position: 28.6 North // 73.9 West
Flight Level: 1510 meters
FL Winds: 49 knots // 230
Temp/Dewpoint (C): 18/08
Weather: thunderstorms
850 Millibar Height: 1569 meters
Surface winds: 40 knots // 220

URNT11 KNHC 231603
97779 15554 70286 73910 15100 23049 18089 /2569
42240
RMK AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 19



[clfenwi]

Heh, just asked my father about their sea state observations. His response: "They were WAGs, nothing more than WAGs".