While no one is looking...

[hurricanetrack]

No El Nino for a while to come:

Outlook for: Aug
2005 Sep
2005 Oct
2005 Nov
2005 Dec
2005 Jan
2006 Feb
2006 Mar
2006
Mean temperature -0.83 -0.51 -0.27 -0.22 -0.20 -0.16 -0.05 -0.01
Model cool frequency (< –0.8°C) 51.9% 20.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 5.0%
Model neutral frequency 48.1% 79.8% 96.7% 96.7% 96.7% 96.7% 94.0% 95.0%
Model warm frequency (> +0.8°C) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 0.0%
NB: "warm" is defined as an exceedance of +0.8°C, while "cool" is defined as falling below –0.8°C.

[WeatherEmperor]

so does that mean no el nino for 2006?

<RICKY>

[DoctorHurricane2003]

No El Niño means that this season will most likely not be cut off early...

[Duffy]

i actually heard someone say they were told, maybe a La Nina for next year, which would mean another active year...although i don't know how someone can tell something like that a year in advance

[WeatherEmperor]

doesnt a la nina only form after an el nino year or am i wrong?

<RICKY>

[Duffy]

don't know

[dhweather]

There is no certainty that a La Nina (abnormal cooling) forms after an El Nino (abnormal warming), or vice-verse.

We've had El Nino years followed by normal years, and by La Nina years.

What this POAMA model means is that the odds of an El Nino are zero
for the rest of 2005, so that means one thing that could slow hurricane season down in the Atlantic will not be there - El Nino.

Note there is a 3% chance of a La Nina - that would be a little more favorable for Tropical Atlantic Activity.

Bottom line - there will be no negative impact to hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

[Astro_man92]

so does that mean that the 2005 atlantic hurricane seasone may continue to break records

[johngaltfla]

so does that mean that the 2005 atlantic hurricane seasone may continue to break records

If it does, I shudder to think about the kinds of records it might break. I wonder if this will be the first season every the CONUS sees two Cat 5's hitting....

[Duffy]

okay DH,
What is the difference between El Nino and La Nina and howcome they have oppossite effects on the Hurricane Season?
I mean howcome El Nino shuts it down and La Nina tends to spurn it on more?

[JamesFromMaine2]

Back when I first started studying weather I was researching those two things El nino and La nina and if I remember correctly El nino makes the weather colder then normal and La Nina is hotter then normal or something like that I am pretty sure it has to do with temps. ! Its been a while since I studyed them but some one else could prob. answer better then I could! But I guess that was already talked about but oh well! lol

[P.K.]

okay DH,
What is the difference between El Nino and La Nina and howcome they have oppossite effects on the Hurricane Season?

El Nino increases shear over the Atlantic meaning that less systems are able to form.

You can see more information on ENSO at http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Owen]

This is a very complicated phenomenon, but to briefly summarize it:

El Nino is the shifting of warm surface waters from the western Pacific to the east-central Pacific due to the slackening of the tradewinds. The Walker Circulation, which is the rising of air columns over the patch of warm water and sinking on both sides after diverging at the tropopause, shifts east as well. Basically, with rising air and more convection now located in the east-central Pacific, upper-level westerlies are enhanced across the Atlantic Basin, and this causes extra wind shear which is unfavorable for Atlantic tropical cyclones to develop. La Nina does the opposite, hence it favors tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic. As far as I know, this has nothing to do with warmer or cooler temperatures.

Again, this is just a brief summary of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and why this affects Atlantic TC development.

[Duffy]

thanks for explaining that to us in laymen terms

[Jim Cantore]

Well La nina would mean bad news for North Carolina

Remember what happened in 1998/1999

[huricanwatcher]

Well La nina would mean bad news for North Carolina

Remember what happened in 1998/1999

wash your mouth out with soap .......

[Derek Ortt]

or 1996

[Duffy]

1995 was a La Nina year wasn't it?

[Hurricaneman]

That is bad news for the meat of the hurricane season

[EDR1222]

Looks like the season could stay busy throughout. The dry air near Africa right now seems to be the main inhibiting factor, but evidentally that is only suppose to be very temporary, according to what the experts are saying.