They are not giving up on the loop yet...

[tronbunny]

I am often entertained by postings of observations of "wobbles" of tracks of cyclones.
I don't think there is any good 'rule of thumb' for defining a track confirmation.
But just for argument's sake...
At what point do you think we can say that Franklin is definitely being influenced by either synoptic feature.. the E'rly Trough or the infamous west Atlantic ridge?

I guess along with that, we'd have to agree in the real circulation center, too.

Maybe this whole discussion is why we have these boards and pay learned academics to study and "predict" weather!

[mike18xx]

The approaching trough appear to me to be more than sufficiently strong to yank Franklin well out to see, and given the brisk northward movement of what appears to be Franklin's center (on VIS), I'd say remaining chanes of a loop back SW into Florida are looking vanishingly remote.

At this point, I think only a decoupled system (i.e., low-level swirl remaining behind while mid/upper stuff is stripped off NE) could have a shot at eventually hitting the US.

[Sanibel]

I doubt there's anything there that would decapitate Franklin.



Perhaps you are right that, whether the trough is strong enough or not, it is thick enough, and buffers the mid-west High enough, to bump Franklin along out to the Atlantic whether the Atlantic High is stubborn or not?

If the CONUS jet is north enough it will take the mid-west High along north and bring Franklin north in response, however this will allow the Atlantic ridge to build back in pushing Franklin towards the coast. The further east Franklin gets today, the less likely that will happen...

[Jim Cantore]

The models are being mostly consistant minus the bam which loops in into Florida

[EDR1222]

Starting to look like it is heading northward now. The further north it gets,the more it is likely to get picked up by the trough and swept away.

[mvtrucking]

Starting to look like it is heading northward now. The further north it gets,the more it is likely to get picked up by the trough and swept away.

Looks N or even NNE maybe?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[chris_fit]

Bye Bye Frankie

[deltadog03]

adios...fishie.....wear a life vest...lol

[Eyes2theSkies]

Question...The further east it goes now is it more likely to miss the trough and meander while the ridge builds back in?