18Z Limited Area Models - Franklin and Invest

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clfenwi
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18Z Limited Area Models - Franklin and Invest

#1 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:39 pm

656
WHXX01 KWBC 221808
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN (AL062005) ON 20050722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.4N 76.7W 28.2N 76.8W 28.8N 76.5W 28.8N 76.3W
BAMM 27.4N 76.7W 28.3N 76.8W 29.2N 76.2W 29.2N 75.9W
A98E 27.4N 76.7W 29.0N 76.2W 30.1N 75.3W 30.8N 72.6W
LBAR 27.4N 76.7W 28.5N 76.6W 29.7N 76.1W 30.8N 75.0W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS 61KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.3N 76.6W 27.1N 79.2W 27.0N 82.9W 28.0N 85.6W
BAMM 28.9N 75.9W 27.7N 77.0W 27.3N 79.8W 28.3N 82.6W
A98E 31.0N 70.3W 31.5N 67.0W 31.2N 65.1W 31.4N 64.6W
LBAR 31.8N 73.0W 34.4N 66.3W 38.4N 55.6W 33.4N 57.9W
SHIP 63KTS 60KTS 55KTS 45KTS
DSHP 63KTS 60KTS 55KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 27.4N LONCUR = 76.7W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.2N LONM12 = 76.4W DIRM12 = 318DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 25.0N LONM24 = 75.0W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONES.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 88.3W 19.0N 90.6W 20.2N 93.0W 21.3N 95.2W
BAMM 17.7N 88.3W 18.6N 90.6W 19.6N 93.1W 20.5N 95.3W
A98E 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.1W 19.9N 91.9W 21.1N 93.9W
LBAR 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.4W 20.2N 93.0W 21.6N 95.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 97.4W 23.3N 101.2W 23.2N 104.7W 22.8N 108.3W
BAMM 21.4N 97.5W 22.9N 101.0W 23.5N 104.1W 23.7N 107.4W
A98E 22.6N 96.1W 25.9N 100.5W 28.5N 102.5W 29.4N 102.9W
LBAR 23.3N 98.4W 27.0N 102.0W 29.3N 102.8W 30.9N 103.4W
SHIP 53KTS 62KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 44KTS 29KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 86.6W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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#2 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:41 pm

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#3 Postby chris_fit » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:42 pm

Still sorta split
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#4 Postby clfenwi » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:43 pm

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#5 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:49 pm

22/1745 UTC 27.6N 76.8W T3.0/3.0 FRANKLIN
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#6 Postby cajungal » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:49 pm

Looks just like Emily's path. But, a whole lot weaker. It won't have enough time to gain much strength. A minimal TS at best.
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#7 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:50 pm

It looks as if now only the BAM models show Franklin curving back SW towards the FL east coast. Im wondering if/when they will stop showing that.

<RICKY>
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#8 Postby wxwatcher91 » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:29 pm

cajungal wrote:Looks just like Emily's path. But, a whole lot weaker. It won't have enough time to gain much strength. A minimal TS at best.


SHIPS takes it to a cat 1 hurricane at 70kt... I dont know about that but maybe 40 to 50kt winds at landfall... remember, the SSTs in the BOC are wicked warm and the northern Gulf is hot also... I suppose I wouldnt be suprised to see a cat 1 at landfall
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#9 Postby Blown Away » Fri Jul 22, 2005 2:37 pm

Where's the NAM that shows the loop, was that an earlier run??
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