NAM jumps off the Fish Scenario.........

[gboudx]

It is pretty crazy. I wonder why the models are having such difficulties with Franklin. Well, I still give creedence to the NHC. They have been almost dead on this season.

One reason the NHC has been so on this season is the models have done a good job. I promise you that when we see a storm that the models have a problem handling...or timing a shortwave...ridge...etc...the NHC will have problems too. They are good forecasters...but many times you read in the discussion that when they don't know what to do...the place the track down the middle of the model guidance. Think about it...in Dennis and Emily...the model guidance was pretty clustered. So...given the spread now...they are having problems...as are we all.

That is what makes this so frustrating for all of us. We simply dont know whats gonna happen.

<RICKY>

And that's what will keep you here all weekend.

[clfenwi]

From the final Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC

WITH T.S. FRANKLIN...LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A GREATER
CONSENSUS TOWARD A RECURVATURE SCENARIO... AWAY FROM THE SERN
CONUS. THE FINAL PROGS REFLECT THE 1400 UTC TPC/NHC ADVISORY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION NOW OVER THE WRN CARRIBEAN IS ALSO
BEING FOLLOWED FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE PROGS DEPICT A
TPC COORDINATED SYSTEM TRACK UP THRU THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE QPF AND POPS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED
OVER MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS NRN MEX AND FROM SRN TEXAS NWWD THRU
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE SYSTEM

And here are the graphics in support of that discussion:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day3nav.html

[Steve]

>>That is what makes this so frustrating for all of us. We simply dont know whats gonna happen.

I think it makes it far more exciting than frustrating. Then again, I'm a take things as they come kinda guy rather than a bang-my-head-against-the-wall dude.

Steve