No seeing the jog north!

DESTRUCTION5 · #1 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:25 am

12 hrs to escape or he is trapped...IMO

#2 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:28 am

what do you mean?

<RICKY>

#3 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:28 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:12 hrs to escape or he is trapped...IMO

Why? Please explain.

DESTRUCTION5 · #4 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:29 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:what do you mean?

<RICKY>

I mean as steve said....He is looking pretty stationary now...If he does nt get caught by the trough in 12 hrs he will be hanging around for a while

#5 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:30 am

I suspect he means that if the trof passing by to the north doesn't grab
Franklin soon, then Franklin will be in an area of very week steering currents for the next few days.

#6 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:30 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:what do you mean?

<RICKY>

I mean as steve said....He is looking pretty stationary now...If he does nt get caught by the trough in 12 hrs he will be hanging around for a while

oh ok. but the trough isnt even there yet isnt it? I dont see it within range of Franklin yet.

<RICKY>

wxcrazytwo · #7 Postby **wxcrazytwo** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:31 am

then I am assuming the high will build back in forcing Frnkling to move NW, right?

DESTRUCTION5 · #8 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:32 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:what do you mean?

<RICKY>

I mean as steve said....He is looking pretty stationary now...If he does nt get caught by the trough in 12 hrs he will be hanging around for a while

oh ok. but the trough isnt even there yet isnt it? I dont see it within range of Franklin yet.

<RICKY>

Its not strong at all...and if he does not gain latitude it will not even be close to grabing him

#9 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:34 am

alright. gosh the tropics are so complicated at times dont you agree?

<RICKY>

boca · #10 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:34 am

Franklin is starting to get pulled to the north alittle bit ,but if it doesn't Central Florida to Carolina's have to watch out.Maybe here in S Fl we can luck out the rest of this hurricane season. Might get a few close calls and hopefully not bother us here in South Florida.

boca · #11 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:36 am

Weather Emperor your a cat 1 congrats.

#12 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:36 am

On the Melbourne radar, it looks to be slowly drifting to the North, or maybe even NNE....but it's VERY slow.

boca · #13 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:41 am

It looks like more and more that Franklin will follow the NHC track out to see because Franklin will be on the north side of the ridge.The ridge is now over S FL.

#14 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:42 am

boca wrote:Weather Emperor your a cat 1 congrats.

oooh thanks. i barely even took the time to notice my own accomplishment. now how far to go until Cat2?

<RICKY>

boca · #15 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:44 am

I think you have to get to 2000 posts.Start writing.

boca · #16 Postby **boca** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:46 am

Hey Franklin lets go fishin.

Jim Cantore · #17 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:10 pm

I'll provide the tackle :lol:

Sanibel · #18 Postby **Sanibel** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:19 pm

Drifting NE now...

wzrgirl1 · #19 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:22 pm

was a stall or drift in the forecast?

#20 Postby **tronbunny** » Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:31 pm

wzrgirl1 wrote:was a stall or drift in the forecast?

yes...

from 11am discussion from NHC:

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON
POSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS...
AND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
FIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND
MELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT
FRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A
FAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE
SOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN
IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE
TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL
LOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS
HAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE
CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96
HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/221502.shtml

No seeing the jog north!

No seeing the jog north!

Re: No seeing the jog north!

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