Will flare up in the NW caribbean become a depression?

[cajungal]

I think it is huge and looks to be really flaring up nicely. Looks like it could develop once it emerges in the gulf. Could be a threat to Texas/Louisiana down the road. Comments welcome.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno. It kinda looks worse then it did last night.

<RICKY>

[skysummit]

I dunno. It kinda looks worse then it did last night.

<RICKY>

Kinda agree. It looked nice yesterday and last night, but there's not too much there right now. Maybe it'll explode later during the day?

[baygirl_1]

well, it's interacting with land right now-- belize and the yucatan. we'll have to see what's left of it once (or IF) it makes it across into the gulf/bay of canpeche.

[WeatherEmperor]

I dunno. It kinda looks worse then it did last night.

<RICKY>

Kinda agree. It looked nice yesterday and last night, but there's not too much there right now. Maybe it'll explode later during the day?

it could. remember last nigh on Mike's talkin tropics show where they were concerned that if this thing developed, how its outflow could hinder the development of Franklin? Perhaps those concerns have been lifted somewhat.

<RICKY>

[Hyperstorm]

The real deal is now OVER the Yucatan. The flare-up you see in the NW Caribbean will not form. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche and into the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, we'll have to monitor it for potential Low pressure development.

Right now, land is inhibiting its development...

[Hyperstorm]

Here's a very simple depiction of what is happening right now. The yellow line is where the wave axis is currently located and the "L" is the part of the wave where a low pressure might form as it moves over the Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche. I want to clarify that there is NO LLC right now.

[bfez1]

It sure has flared up and is looking healthy this morning.

[skysummit]

I believe everyone knows there is no LLC right now.

[Opal storm]

Is this thing stalled?It seems as if it has gone nowhere the past day or so.

[cajungal]

Our met said that land is inhibiting its development right now. But, once it emerges in the southern GOM it can really spin up quickly. But, it should take a path similar to Emily and only be a threat to northern Mexico or Texas. It would not even have enough time to become anything more than a TS.

[Steve]

>>The real deal is now OVER the Yucatan. The flare-up you see in the NW Caribbean will not form. Once it moves into the Bay of Campeche and into the southern Gulf of Mexico later today, we'll have to monitor it for potential Low pressure development.

Indeed. But I think you're a little early with it. The Upper Level Low is down in the B.O.C. right now and pulling away in conjunction with the trof split that took place. Nice upper ridging is in place over the system which should be rolling tomorrow or Sunday. The difference between Emily and likely Gert-to-be is that Emily was a lot stronger (obviously) at this point while Gert-to-be is just a wave. So we're not going from Cat 4 to Cat 1 to Cat 3, it's more like nothing to mid-grade tropical storm (with obvious W. Gulf potential for tightening at landfall).

Steve

[skysummit]

Our met said that land is inhibiting its development right now. But, once it emerges in the southern GOM it can really spin up quickly. But, it should take a path similar to Emily and only be a threat to northern Mexico or Texas. It would not even have enough time to become anything more than a TS.

Which met mentioned it?

[Huckster]

I believe everyone knows there is no LLC right now.

Actually, there might be one trying to form right now. Go to this link http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html and select animation, 6 images for the loop, zoom factor high, and then click near Belize. I think there's clear evidence something is going on down in that area, but right now it's close to land and will no doubt move inland, unless it moves NNE. So, as others have said, this thing will probably not get organized until it gets into the Gulf. Still, this is just a little more evidence that this wave has some kick to it and could end up developing.

[Hyperstorm]

I believe everyone knows there is no LLC right now.

Actually, there might be one trying to form right now. Go to this link http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html and select animation, 6 images for the loop, zoom factor high, and then click near Belize. I think there's clear evidence something is going on down in that area, but right now it's close to land and will no doubt move inland, unless it moves NNE. So, as others have said, this thing will probably not get organized until it gets into the Gulf. Still, this is just a little more evidence that this wave has some kick to it and could end up developing.

I see some good forcing going on there. Yesterday's mid-level feature is now near the northern tip of the Yucatan, but there's definitely a possibility of a new feature to develop right there near the coast of Belize as it moves inland. The northern feature appears to have the best conditions for development, but the wave as a whole will have to be monitored as it will likely move back offshore by this evening...

EDIT: I MESSED UP MY POST TRYING TO QUOTE SOMETHING

[Jim Cantore]

It's got good outflow to it but it looked quite ragged earlier

I think it has a good shot when it hits the gulf but thats a wait and see

[tw861]

I believe everyone knows there is no LLC right now.

May not be entirely correct. There appears to be a possible circulation near the northern coast of Belize or just se of Chetumal. If you look closely at a zoomed in shot (I'm using the NASA site) you can see the lower clouds off the Belize coast heading north while over the Yucatan you can detect some southward movement. There should be no significant development until it moves off the NW coast of the Yucatan and where it moves off will play a big part in possible future effects for Texas/Mexico.

[skysummit]

I believe everyone knows there is no LLC right now.

May not be entirely correct. There appears to be a possible circulation near the northern coast of Belize or just se of Chetumal. If you look closely at a zoomed in shot (I'm using the NASA site) you can see the lower clouds off the Belize coast heading north while over the Yucatan you can detect some southward movement. There should be no significant development until it moves off the NW coast of the Yucatan and where it moves off will play a big part in possible future effects for Texas/Mexico.

Yes, I see that, but is there a definate closed low down there? I don't think so. I believe there is some kind of circulation, but not one that would fit the definition of a LLC.

[Swimdude]

Nothing will happen while it's over land. Heaven knows that those people don't need rain at the moment. Afterwards, we'll have to see where it goes. But yes, most likely development in the GOM.

[wxwatcher91]

it might already BE a depression

the 18z model run has it with 25kt winds right now

000
WHXX01 KWBC 221814
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912005) ON 20050722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050722 1800 050723 0600 050723 1800 050724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.7N 88.3W 19.0N 90.6W 20.2N 93.0W 21.3N 95.2W
BAMM 17.7N 88.3W 18.6N 90.6W 19.6N 93.1W 20.5N 95.3W
A98E 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.1W 19.9N 91.9W 21.1N 93.9W
LBAR 17.7N 88.3W 18.8N 90.4W 20.2N 93.0W 21.6N 95.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 34KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800 050727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 97.4W 23.3N 101.2W 23.2N 104.7W 22.8N 108.3W
BAMM 21.4N 97.5W 22.9N 101.0W 23.5N 104.1W 23.7N 107.4W
A98E 22.6N 96.1W 25.9N 100.5W 28.5N 102.5W 29.4N 102.9W
LBAR 23.3N 98.4W 27.0N 102.0W 29.3N 102.8W 30.9N 103.4W
SHIP 53KTS 62KTS 68KTS 70KTS
DSHP 44KTS 29KTS 27KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.7N LONCUR = 88.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.5N LONM12 = 86.6W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.2N LONM24 = 84.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....