what about the FSU Superensemble

[Mac]

probably secret for the same reason the UM MM5 is. Its still bein developed. A product under construction never should be released

And I do understand what you're saying, Derek. But software companies--including Microsoft--routinely release work-in-progress copies (Beta programs) of software currently under development. The ONLY reason that I can figure FSU wouldn't want the models available to the general public is if FSU had a low level of confidence in its own models. But if they are waiting for perfection from their super ensemble...I guess we can expect it to be available to the public some time around when hell freezes over.

[Derek Ortt]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

[Mac]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

[jlauderdal]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

good info derek. I am going to send an email tomorrow about the topics in the thread and see what i get in response.

[clfenwi]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

(boldface is my own)
That is a very serious accusation that you are making without any evidence whatsoever. Highly irresponsible.

Dr. Krishnamurti's research, which forms the basis for the superensemble is well documented.

To libel his work without evidence is reckless and offensive.

[ericinmia]

Its been common knolwedge for a long time that they are simply aggregating the model data and weighing the models and tracks based on conditions, model tendancies, etc.

This is not a model per say... hence the name "superensemble" It is an ensemble of the models formed into a calculated highest probability matrix.
-Eric

[mahicks]

GO NOLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The FSU Super Ensemble is ALOT more than plagiarism....It's a proprietary product and is not public...Regardless of what your tax dollars pay for, the university is entitled to make a profit on what ever it feels like...Including your tax dollars.

To be honest.....Very little to NONE of your tax dollars go toward MOST Florida Colleges...Including FSU

[Mac]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

(boldface is my own)
That is a very serious accusation that you are making without any evidence whatsoever. Highly irresponsible.

Dr. Krishnamurti's research, which forms the basis for the superensemble is well documented.

To libel his work without evidence is reckless and offensive.

Prozac is your friend.

[clfenwi]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

(boldface is my own)
That is a very serious accusation that you are making without any evidence whatsoever. Highly irresponsible.

Dr. Krishnamurti's research, which forms the basis for the superensemble is well documented.

To libel his work without evidence is reckless and offensive.

Prozac is your friend.

Now that is a way to dodge responsibility.
------------------------------------------------

Either show evidence of plagarism or retract your statement.

[Mac]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

(boldface is my own)
That is a very serious accusation that you are making without any evidence whatsoever. Highly irresponsible.

Dr. Krishnamurti's research, which forms the basis for the superensemble is well documented.

To libel his work without evidence is reckless and offensive.

Prozac is your friend.

Now that is a way to dodge responsibility.
------------------------------------------------

Either show evidence of plagarism or retract your statement.

Lighten up, Homer. It was a joke. Obviously it is not plagiarism, since it does not even fit the definition of plagiarism. If it were anything, it would probably be copyright infringement. But since I have no idea what copyrights any of the models have, or what permissions FSU has to use those other models to create their own product, I wouldn't be in a position to speculate on the matter. I will say that, in general, universities tend to be pretty cautious with such matters. So I'm sure FSU is doing everything it should be doing.

[Baggio]

GO NOLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The FSU Super Ensemble is ALOT more than plagiarism....It's a proprietary product and is not public...Regardless of what your tax dollars pay for, the university is entitled to make a profit on what ever it feels like...Including your tax dollars.

To be honest.....Very little to NONE of your tax dollars go toward MOST Florida Colleges...Including FSU

You've got to be kidding me. Florida public universities are the most subsidized in the country, bar none. While it's true the politicians lavish UF more than any other university in the system, tuitition and fees at any state university are the cheapest in the country for a 4 year institution. And this is excluding Florida Bright Futures, which I believe mostly comes from lottery money.

[kevin]

We're not allowed to use model data and then statistically analyze it?

You cannot copyright numbers.

[Mac]

We're not allowed to use model data and then statistically analyze it?

You cannot copyright numbers.

Well, if the models are copyrighted, and you use that model's data to create your own data, I could see a potential for copyright issues. Using copyrighted data to create more data is different than analyzing data. But like I said, I don't even know if any of the models are copyrighted.

[clfenwi]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

(boldface is my own)
That is a very serious accusation that you are making without any evidence whatsoever. Highly irresponsible.

Dr. Krishnamurti's research, which forms the basis for the superensemble is well documented.

To libel his work without evidence is reckless and offensive.

Prozac is your friend.

Now that is a way to dodge responsibility.
------------------------------------------------

Either show evidence of plagarism or retract your statement.

Lighten up, Homer. It was a joke. Obviously it is not plagiarism, since it does not even fit the definition of plagiarism. If it were anything, it would probably be copyright infringement. But since I have no idea what copyrights any of the models have, or what permissions FSU has to use those other models to create their own product, I wouldn't be in a position to speculate on the matter. I will say that, in general, universities tend to be pretty cautious with such matters. So I'm sure FSU is doing everything it should be doing.

You sure as hell did not write it as if you were less than serious.

[Mac]

I believe it can be bought for a hefty fee

Also, anyone good with a comp probably could re-create the FSU super ensemble as it is NOT EVEN A MODEL! All it does is assign different weights to the various models and the previous NHC forecast

And now I'm even more confused. LOL

So maybe it is copyright problems that are preventing it from being public. FSU is plagiarizing and they don't want anybody to know.

(boldface is my own)
That is a very serious accusation that you are making without any evidence whatsoever. Highly irresponsible.

Dr. Krishnamurti's research, which forms the basis for the superensemble is well documented.

To libel his work without evidence is reckless and offensive.

Prozac is your friend.

Now that is a way to dodge responsibility.
------------------------------------------------

Either show evidence of plagarism or retract your statement.

Lighten up, Homer. It was a joke. Obviously it is not plagiarism, since it does not even fit the definition of plagiarism. If it were anything, it would probably be copyright infringement. But since I have no idea what copyrights any of the models have, or what permissions FSU has to use those other models to create their own product, I wouldn't be in a position to speculate on the matter. I will say that, in general, universities tend to be pretty cautious with such matters. So I'm sure FSU is doing everything it should be doing.

You sure as hell did not write it as if you were less than serious.

For future reference, LOL = laugh out loud. It's generally a term used by people when they are joking, or engaging in levity.

[clfenwi]

The LOL referred to your state of confusion, it did not follow your accusation...

Anyhow, now that you have claimed that you weren't serious, we can drop the matter and let the discussion return to its original question.

[air360]

yea, i agree, i dont know how you could have read that as being serious....i actually thought it was pretty funny to be honest. but yea...no way was her serious....everyone just chill out....goodness

[clfenwi]

This http://tinyurl.com/bnm4w is an old article, but it gives you an idea as to why the superensemble isn't public.

Two quotes relevant to things brought up by different people in this thread

The university has applied to the U.S. Patent Office to try to license its technology. And if it's successful, a group of FSU researchers and private businessmen is lined up to spin off a company.

As I mentioned earlier, the patent was granted in 2003.

"It's really not rocket science. It's just that nobody's ever thought of this before," says Eric Williford, a 34-year-old doctoral candidate in meteorology who runs the hurricane-forecasting arm of the Superensemble. "The weighting on past performance seems to be the novelty that no one else has tried."

It reminds me of a comment that the CIO of Virginia Tech made about their supercomputer (the one powered by a gajillion Apple G5 processors). I don't remember the exact quote, but the idea was the same as the one above and the one expressed by Derek earlier: The design of the supercomputer wasn't earth-shakingly brilliant, it can be fairly easily duplicated by someone with any kind of knowledge in that field; it just happened that VT's professor was the first to do things that particular way.

[air360]

yea, i think given the time, information, and experience..one could create a similer program...even someone on this board with programming experience...it would be kinda like looking at the historical records...but if it was possible to put all the accurate conditions of previous forecast and model outputs and adjust settings for each on what is good and what is bad....i think it would be possible to input current conditions and then it could figure out....based on the nearly uncomprehendable amount of previous data of models and storms inputed into it...a pretty likely forecast..

[jlauderdal]

GO NOLES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The FSU Super Ensemble is ALOT more than plagiarism....It's a proprietary product and is not public...Regardless of what your tax dollars pay for, the university is entitled to make a profit on what ever it feels like...Including your tax dollars.

To be honest.....Very little to NONE of your tax dollars go toward MOST Florida Colleges...Including FSU

600k went for this study and that took me less than 30 seconds to find, i suspect fsu is getting alot more than central florida but i will find that out tomorrow:

Taxpayers Fund Squirrel Sex Study
Created: 6/30/2005 6:30:51 PM
Updated: 7/1/2005 9:21:12 AM

Orlando, FL -- OK, we're not kidding here, but have you ever thought about the sex life of the African ground squirrel? That is what a University of Central Florida professor and several grad students are working on right now. So why should you care? Because they're using hundreds of thousands of tax dollars!

Squirrels: they're cute, they're furry, and they have caught the interest of University of Central Florida Professor, Dr. Jane Waterman. Waterman who is out of the country until August 1st, has traveled from her biology lab at UCF nearly halfway around the world to Africa to study the sex life of the African Ground Squirrel

M.J. Soileau, University of Central Florida Vice President of Research:
"That's how science advances, it's not by studying things we understand, it's things that are oddball things."

Clearly the squirrel project fits into the oddball thing, but the Vice President of Research at UCF, Dr. M.J. Soileau says it is good science.

M.J. Soileau, University of Central Florida Vice President of Research:
"One of the characteristics of this ground squirrel is that the males live together in a non-aggressive way even though they are competing for sexual favors of the female."

Now at this point you might be wondering how do you conduct a study into the sex life of squirrels. You could put on a lab coat, get a pen and paper and try to interview the squirrels, or you could do the more traditional route and apply for a federal grant, take grad students to Africa and study the squirrels over there.

That's exactly what Dr. Waterman did and you're paying for it. What's that costing you? $600,000.