Special Statement on Tropical Storm Franklin

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#21 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:26 pm

The convection looks pretty good for a small TS. Also the core of storm is well formed with tight circulation. I'd say we'll be looking at a TS for another 24 hrs though
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#22 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:30 pm

BensonTCwatcher wrote:The convection looks pretty good for a small TS. Also the core of storm is well formed with tight circulation. I'd say we'll be looking at a TS for another 24 hrs though


Uh... it's a TS now. Official at 8pm. :lol:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
curtinnc
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 79
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 4:32 pm
Location: Cornelius, NC
Contact:
Contact curtinnc

#23 Postby curtinnc » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:32 pm

What a roller coaster of a year.... I'm not gonna get a drop of sleep in Aug and Sept... and still taste Hugo... an Oct storm... what a year this is looking to be!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
miamistorm
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 9
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:12 pm
Location: Honolulu, HI

#24 Postby miamistorm » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:34 pm

Why is it a special advisory? They would just update the public at 8pm anyway...will this special advisory have a new discussion? track?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:36 pm

miamistorm wrote:Why is it a special advisory? They would just update the public at 8pm anyway...will this special advisory have a new discussion? track?


Yes it will have a discussion.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#26 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:36 pm

miamistorm wrote:Why is it a special advisory? They would just update the public at 8pm anyway...will this special advisory have a new discussion? track?


Special Advisory means discussion and track as well. Intermediate Advisory would be the normal just a public advisory.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
george_r_1961
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3171
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania

#27 Postby george_r_1961 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:37 pm

BonesXL wrote:This systems tend to strenghten and get better organized during the night...there is actually a scientific reason for this...but I forget. :D


The atmosphere over the tropical waters is more unstable at nite because the air cools and the water doesnt. This is why convection, especially in weak systems, flares at night,
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
seaswing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:56 am
Location: High Springs, FL/just NW of Gainesville

#28 Postby seaswing » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:39 pm

I have a feeling because of the close proximity, they are going to update as necessary.... remember, this has never happened so early, in our lifetime. We have already seen and might continue to see a lot of 'firsts' this season. Because it has strengthened so quickly, everyone should keep a watchful eye for the next 5 days or less....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
senorpepr
Military Met/Moderator
Military Met/Moderator
Posts: 12542
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
Location: Mackenbach, Germany
Contact:
Contact senorpepr

#29 Postby senorpepr » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:43 pm

I'll update my stats in the Tropical Analysts' Forum later tonight, but here's some quick facts...

Over the past 30 years, the sixth tropical storm, on average, formed on Sep 12. Over the past 154 years, make that Sep 19.

The ten earliest years for the sixth tropical storm to form...

2005 ... 21 July
1936 ... 04 Aug
1995 ... 08 Aug
1993 ... 12 Aug
1990 ... 13 Aug
1887 ... 14 Aug
1893 ... 15 Aug
1886 ... 15 Aug
1959 ... 18 Aug
1909 ... 20 Aug
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148500
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:45 pm

senorpepr wrote:I'll update my stats in the Tropical Analysts' Forum later tonight, but here's some quick facts...

Over the past 30 years, the sixth tropical storm, on average, formed on Sep 12. Over the past 154 years, make that Sep 19.

The ten earliest years for the sixth tropical storm to form...

2005 ... 21 July
1936 ... 04 Aug
1995 ... 08 Aug
1993 ... 12 Aug
1990 ... 13 Aug
1887 ... 14 Aug
1893 ... 15 Aug
1886 ... 15 Aug
1959 ... 18 Aug
1909 ... 20 Aug


Another record for the 2005 season.How many more records this season will have?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Wacahootaman
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 221
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:54 am
Location: North Florida

#31 Postby Wacahootaman » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:46 pm

Yeah, but this forcast track has got to be the wierdest ever :ggreen:

Image
0 likes   
Top
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7240
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:
Contact jlauderdal

#32 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:48 pm

Wacahootaman wrote:Yeah, but this forcast track has got to be the wierdest ever :ggreen:

Image


thats a true spaghetti model. this would be a great system to fire up that futures market deal those guys at UM have cooking, let everyone put there money where their mouth is
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#33 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:48 pm

Brent wrote:
BensonTCwatcher wrote:The convection looks pretty good for a small TS. Also the core of storm is well formed with tight circulation. I'd say we'll be looking at a TS for another 24 hrs though


Uh... it's a TS now. Official at 8pm. :lol:


Yes I mean it will STAY a TS for that long at least or more likely more even :wink:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#34 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:48 pm

senorpepr wrote:I'll update my stats in the Tropical Analysts' Forum later tonight, but here's some quick facts...

Over the past 30 years, the sixth tropical storm, on average, formed on Sep 12. Over the past 154 years, make that Sep 19.

The ten earliest years for the sixth tropical storm to form...

2005 ... 21 July
1936 ... 04 Aug
1995 ... 08 Aug
1993 ... 12 Aug
1990 ... 13 Aug
1887 ... 14 Aug
1893 ... 15 Aug
1886 ... 15 Aug
1959 ... 18 Aug
1909 ... 20 Aug


Senorpepr, where did you leave 1933? That year had an early start with the sixth tropical storm forming in mid-August...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HurricaneQueen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1011
Age: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 7:36 pm
Location: No. Naples, Fl (Vanderbilt Beach area)

#35 Postby HurricaneQueen » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:57 pm

Wacahootaman:


Thanks for the belly laugh. I needed that. I might just make that my wallpaper!!! I sort of sums up the season overall.

Lynn
0 likes   
GO FLORIDA GATORS
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#36 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:05 pm

Rainband wrote:Ok. We have been watching these things for years. Is this not one of the most pathetic looking sheared storms??? at this point or am I missing something here??


It's not sheared...not yet at least. IT just has little convection with it. Now...the blowoff from the wave in the Caribbean is streaming towards him and that could cause a problem in the next 12 hours or so.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SeaBrz_FL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 472
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 10:47 am
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

#37 Postby SeaBrz_FL » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:11 pm

Of course we don't know for sure what Franklin will do, but since he is so much closer to the east coast (and over more land) than Jeanne was when she looped, does that reduce his opportunities to greatly increase in intensity?

(Please tell me "yes")

Thanks for feedback,
SB
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BensonTCwatcher
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1050
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
Location: Southport NC

#38 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:16 pm

I am curious as to what the next model runs will show. I don't understand the specifics, but I just don't see a loop happening based on the high blocking it. It seems more likely ( loops are rare) that we'll see a slowing and westward turn or a recurve Yes?
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#39 Postby Steve H. » Thu Jul 21, 2005 7:57 pm

Franklin may not make it through the night. Circulation is falling apart and the system is drying up. W. Caribbean system's outflow is disrupting him and robbing energy. NHC will have to declassify him at 11pm unless he really shows some muscle....I doubt it. Good riddens Frankie!!!!
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#40 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 8:27 pm

System in the sw carribbean seems to be backing off. reds on frankie appearing game on :P
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: KirbyDude25 and 197 guests