91L Invest

[sweetpea]

Oh boy. I'm just gonna hang my puter around my neck.

You just made me choke on my dinner. ROFL

[Brent]

I've lost count. How many weekends in a row is this of following tropical systems?

This will be #4.

Cindy formed on July 3rd as a TD...

Dennis on the weekend of July 9th and 10th

Emily last weekend.

[Rainband]

the area in the western Carribbean seems to be keeping 6 in check..if not wounding it.

[Opal storm]

I don't see the WNW movement with this system,all the convection is moving north.

[gilbert88]

What are the chances of this strenghtening (at least TS) and coming toward NE Mexico? (area hit by Emily)

[PTrackerLA]

What are the chances of this strenghtening (at least TS) and coming toward NE Mexico? (area hit by Emily)

Don't know, sure wish it would come up this way (in a weak form) and give us a good soaking, it's been a very dry year.

[Rainband]

What are the chances of this strenghtening (at least TS) and coming toward NE Mexico? (area hit by Emily)

Don't know, sure wish it would come up this way (in a weak form) and give us a good soaking, it's been a very dry year.

I know yall need the rain. Lots of near misses

[Steve]

>>I don't see the WNW movement with this system,all the convection is moving north.

If you're talking about the Caribbean stuff, that convection is dying. I tried to say about 5 times today that it would and then refire again and probably die more until the convective feedback processes were in effect, but only the NHC wanted to listen . /jk

Steve

[Sanibel]

Looks like Caribbean could blow-off and Bahamas move north and form...

[Normandy]

>>I don't see the WNW movement with this system,all the convection is moving north.

If you're talking about the Caribbean stuff, that convection is dying. I tried to say about 5 times today that it would and then refire again and probably die more until the convective feedback processes were in effect, but only the NHC wanted to listen . /jk

Steve

I dont think anyone was disagreeing with that point Or at least I wasnt.

[cycloneye]

STRONG WEST CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM W/CNTRL CUBA TO
THE NICARAGUA COAST ROUGHLY ALONG 83W/84W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED N/NW WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
WAVE...AND HAS MOVED BENEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE
CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN
78W-85W WHICH ARE BRUSHING THE WRN EDGE OF JAMAICA AND SPREADING
NWD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE ALSO
EXTENDS FARTHER S FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 79W-82W AS WELL AS OVER
PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THERE IS NO INDICATION OF A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE WAVE IS BECOMING SHARPER AND A LOW COULD FORM
TONIGHT OR ON FRI. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING
OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO LATE FRI.

[Steve]

>>I dont think anyone was disagreeing with that point Or at least I wasnt

You weren't at all. You just threw out a legit possibility. But there's plenty of "it's moving north" which is typical with blob watch stuff.

Steve

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There seems to be a MLC with that blob over the caribbean. The outflow is getting much better oreganized. Something tells me the Caribbean system might develop...In which it is much bigger it might do a Cindy 1999 to little Emily. But to frankie.


Even so convection at this time is on the decrease. Expect it to increase by morning. In with that curving/MLC developing. This has a fair shot at turning into the storm to watch.

[Steve]

The outflow was bound to improve as the ULL backed off and was replaced by ridging. Whether anything gets cooking down there is still suspect. This year though, we obviously have to watch everything.

Steve

[deltadog03]

this will have to really watched...cuz, by time it gets to the gulf...i think the trof will be weak enough to not hook it into MX

[BensonTCwatcher]

There seems to be a MLC with that blob over the caribbean. The outflow is getting much better oreganized. Something tells me the Caribbean system might develop...In which it is much bigger it might do a Cindy 1999 to little Emily. But to frankie.


Even so convection at this time is on the decrease. Expect it to increase by morning. In with that curving/MLC developing. This has a fair shot at turning into the storm to watch.

Agreed the MLC is much broader and the outflow better. It looks less like a blob on the latest WV. With that said Franklin still seems to have a healthy circulation pattern even though it appears to be getting some shear.

[wxwatcher91]

[cycloneye]

763
ABNT20 KNHC 220236
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED ABOUT 50 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GREAT ABACO IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. WHILE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 220918
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FRANKLIN... LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF GREAT ABACO
IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND
AREAS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA. WHILE PROXIMITY TO LAND WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

STRONG W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 23N83W
INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS/W NICARAGUA NEAR 15N86W INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH A MID/UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER W CUBA. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER HIGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING
THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N TO THE HONDURAN COASTLINE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
60/75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND OVER PANAMA NEAR
8N77W 11N82W TO 17N84W. ALL OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION IS BEING
DRAWN NW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
IN THE S GULF OF MEXICO.