TS Franklin Recon=Next Mission starts at 9:00z

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
Rainband

#81 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:36 pm

looks really sheared at the moment.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 858
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Sopchoppy, FL

#82 Postby sweetpea » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:38 pm

fci wrote:
jschlitz wrote:
dhweather wrote:THIS IS A JOKE - THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL AT ALL !!!!!!!!!



That was about the funniest thing I ever read!!! Altho it looks like Franklin may be a little Schizophrenic - he also thinks she's an Emily. :wink: :D


Metrosexual storm.


That is the second time in 5 minutes that someone on this board has made me choke on my dinner. LMAO :lol:
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#83 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:45 pm



000

URNT12 KNHC 212240
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/22:26:30Z
B. 25 deg 33 min N
075 deg 43 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 30 kt
E. 197 deg 006 nm
F. 264 deg 026 kt
G. 210 deg 011 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 22 C/ 302 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 21:13:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.




0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#84 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:49 pm

380
URNT11 KNHC 212246
97779 22404 50261 75200 03000 15033 22228 /0015
41240
RMK AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 17

Surface Winds: SE 40kts!
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#85 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:55 pm

Haven't seen 'LAST OB' yet, but this should be about it... mission was only scheduled to last until 2300Z and the plane appears to have turned on to a course home (but hasn't ascended to cruising altitude yet).
0 likes   
Top
Rainband

#86 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:56 pm

Looks sad on sat.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#87 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:58 pm

latest satellite shows pop up convection forming right over the LLC. In which the LLC is becoming better defined. In yes we will have to watch that shear coming from the west-southwest.

Also Emily was a sad case for a cat4 when it made its first landfall on the Satellite.
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#88 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:16 pm

SUPPLEMENTAL VORTEX

Storm: Storm INVEST: Observed By AF #307
Storm #EE in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 20KT (23.0mph 37.0km/h) In NW Quadrant At 20:25:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 18.0KT (20.7mph 33.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: P EXTRAP FROM 850MBGOOD RADAR PRESENTATION. CENTER DIAMETER 10 MILES. (Report Time: 21/2308Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 25.4N 75.8W 026KT (29.9MPH 48.1km/h) [22:17:10Z to 22:17:10Z]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 05KT (5.75MPH 9.3km/h) @ 990°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 25.7N 75.6W 045KT (51.75MPH 83.3km/h) [22:31:30Z to 22:36:10Z]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 40KT (46MPH 74.1km/h) @ 120°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
I01 25.3N 75.9W Sea level: 13mb 22°C 22°C 018KT (20.7MPH 33.3 km/h) @ 260°
O01 25.7N 75.5W Sea level: 13mb 22°C 22°C 042KT (48.3MPH 77.8 km/h) @ 150°
O02 25.9N 75.3W Sea level: 14mb 23°C 22°C 034KT (39.1MPH 63.0 km/h) @ 140°
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#89 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:18 pm

After this mission is over at what time the next one will be?
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#90 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:20 pm

Ob 19
Time:2303Z
Position 26.0 North 76.3 West
flight level: 3000 meters
Fl winds: 14 knots // 080
Temperature 23 C
Dewpoint: 22C
thunderstorm
SLP: 1014 mb
Surface winds 20 knots // 070

000

URNT11 KNHC 212309
97779 23034 50260 76300 03000 08014 23228 /0014
40720
RMK AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 19
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38266
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#91 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:23 pm

cycloneye wrote:After this mission is over at what time the next one will be?


Tomorrow morning at 12z... 8am EDT is the fix time.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Rainband

#92 Postby Rainband » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:24 pm

Thanks Brent :P
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#93 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:After this mission is over at what time the next one will be?


Take back my previous remark...the set of minobs that came in after I posted that indicate that the plane turned back to the south and east, so it seems to be staying on station longer than planned. The POD for tomorrow indicates that the mission takes off at 0900Z tomorrow and will be entering the storm at 1100Z with a center fix by 1200Z.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#94 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:25 pm

Brent wrote:
cycloneye wrote:After this mission is over at what time the next one will be?


Tomorrow morning at 12z... 8am EDT is the fix time.


So the rest of tonight and early morning it will be all about sat estimates.When tommorow mornings recon goes it may find a stronger storm.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 148501
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#95 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:26 pm

clfenwi wrote:
cycloneye wrote:After this mission is over at what time the next one will be?


Take back my previous remark...the set of minobs that came in after I posted that indicate that the plane turned back to the south and east, so it seems to be staying on station longer than planned. The POD for tomorrow indicates that the mission takes off at 0900Z tomorrow and will be entering the storm at 1100Z with a center fix by 1200Z.


Ok thanks for the answer.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#96 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:26 pm

2310 2550N 07605W 00305 0014 047 019 226 220 020 00332 0000000000
2310. 2548N 07604W 00305 0012 047 020 226 220 021 00331 0000000000
2311 2547N 07604W 00305 0011 042 020 226 220 020 00329 0000000000
2311. 2546N 07603W 00304 0009 034 019 224 220 019 00326 0000000000
2312 2544N 07601W 00305 0007 034 017 224 222 018 00325 0000000000
2312. 2544N 07600W 00305 0004 032 016 226 226 016 00322 0000000000
2313 2543N 07558W 00305 0000 025 016 228 224 016 00319 0000000000
2313. 2542N 07557W 00305 5004 015 015 226 220 016 00314 0000000000
2314 2542N 07555W 00305 5008 019 013 226 222 015 00310 0000000000
2314. 2541N 07554W 00303 5013 021 009 228 226 011 00303 0000000000
2315 2541N 07552W 00307 5017 015 007 234 220 008 00303 0000000000
2315. 2540N 07550W 00302 5021 201 000 240 220 004 00294 0000000000
2316 2540N 07549W 00307 5021 184 011 234 228 017 00299 0000000000
2316. 2541N 07547W 00303 5021 155 019 240 224 023 00295 0000000000
2317 2542N 07546W 00306 5017 153 040 232 232 045 00302 0000000000
2317. 2543N 07545W 00305 5010 152 054 218 218 056 00309 0000000000
2318 2545N 07544W 00304 5002 152 057 212 212 057 00315 0000000000
2318. 2546N 07542W 00305 0004 149 054 214 214 057 00322 0000000000
2319 2547N 07541W 00306 0008 148 048 218 218 049 00327 0000000000
2319. 2548N 07540W 00305 0010 151 046 220 216 046 00328 0000000000
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#97 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:27 pm

57 mph flight level
0 likes   
Top
clfenwi
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3331
Joined: Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:54 pm

#98 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:29 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:57 mph flight level


57 knots at flight level ... reduces to ~ 52 mph at the surface...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#99 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:30 pm

57kts at Flight Level, Matt
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#100 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:31 pm

Thank you. 52 mph at the surface.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: DESTRUCTION5, HurricaneFan, wwizard and 110 guests