TS Franklin Recon=Next Mission starts at 9:00z

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gkrangers

#61 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:12 pm

2100 2557N 07452W 00274 0033 132 033 232 224 035 00320 0000000000
2100. 2558N 07453W 00274 0033 130 033 232 222 033 00321 0000000000
2101 2558N 07455W 00275 0032 131 033 232 220 033 00321 0000000000
2101. 2557N 07456W 00273 0031 132 032 232 222 034 00317 0000000000
2102 2556N 07457W 00273 0031 130 034 230 224 035 00317 0000000000
2102. 2555N 07458W 00274 0030 132 034 232 226 035 00317 0000000000
2103 2554N 07500W 00274 0029 133 035 230 224 037 00316 0000000000
2103. 2552N 07501W 00275 0029 133 037 230 224 039 00317 0000000000
2104 2551N 07502W 00273 0027 133 038 230 222 039 00313 0000000000
2104. 2550N 07503W 00275 0027 131 037 230 224 037 00316 0000000000
2105 2549N 07504W 00275 0026 130 036 224 224 037 00314 0000000000
2105. 2548N 07506W 00273 0026 133 034 216 216 036 00312 0000000000
2106 2547N 07507W 00274 0024 130 037 222 222 038 00311 0000000000
2106. 2546N 07508W 00273 0024 131 038 220 220 039 00311 0000000000
2107 2545N 07509W 00274 0022 130 042 222 220 042 00310 0000000000
2107. 2544N 07510W 00275 0021 129 039 222 216 041 00309 0000000000
2108 2543N 07512W 00272 0021 131 034 224 210 035 00306 0000000000
2108. 2542N 07513W 00274 0019 131 037 220 214 038 00307 0000000000
2109 2541N 07514W 00273 0018 135 037 220 216 038 00305 0000000000
2109. 2539N 07515W 00276 0017 128 035 218 218 037 00306 0000000000
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#62 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:19 pm

934
URNT12 KNHC 212101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/20:29:00Z
B. 25 deg 18 min N
075 deg 24 min W
C. 850 mb 1501 m
D. 30 kt
E. 246 deg 006 nm
F. 057 deg 022 kt
G. 265 deg 125 nm
H. EXTRAP 1010 mb
I. 16 C/ 1493 m
J. 18 C/ 1494 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 07
MAX FL WIND 20 KT NW QUAD 20:25:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850MB
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION. CENTER DIAMETER 10 MILES.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#63 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:20 pm

42 knots flight level=48.3 mph=90 percent to the surface is 38.97 mph.


Ok I got it slightly wrong...
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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gkrangers

#64 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:21 pm

2110 2538N 07516W 00273 0015 136 037 222 218 038 00301 0000000000
2110. 2537N 07518W 00273 0012 138 040 222 214 040 00298 0000000000
2111 2536N 07519W 00275 0011 137 040 222 212 041 00299 0000000000
2111. 2535N 07520W 00275 0009 133 040 220 216 041 00297 0000000000
2112 2534N 07521W 00274 0007 135 042 220 220 043 00294 0000000000
2112. 2533N 07522W 00273 0004 141 045 220 218 045 00291 0000000000
2113 2532N 07523W 00273 5000 143 047 218 218 047 00286 0000000000
2113. 2531N 07524W 00276 5003 144 047 216 216 048 00286 0000000000
2114 2529N 07525W 00272 5007 143 046 216 216 048 00278 0000000000
2114. 2528N 07526W 00275 5012 139 039 222 222 042 00277 0000000000
2115 2527N 07527W 00274 5018 139 035 222 222 036 00269 0000000000
2115. 2526N 07528W 00277 5025 126 023 234 234 027 00266 0000000000
2116 2525N 07529W 00270 5026 176 004 242 234 009 00257 0000000000
2116. 2524N 07530W 00275 5020 285 014 230 230 016 00269 0000000000
2117 2522N 07531W 00274 5013 283 016 226 226 016 00274 0000000000
2117. 2521N 07532W 00275 5008 282 014 226 224 014 00279 0000000000
2118 2520N 07533W 00275 5005 284 011 226 226 012 00283 0000000000
2118. 2519N 07534W 00276 5002 288 016 224 224 023 00287 0000000000
2119 2518N 07535W 00271 0001 268 024 208 208 025 00286 0000000000
2119. 2518N 07537W 00275 0003 265 020 192 192 022 00291 0000000000
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#65 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:22 pm

There are at 850mb flight level. So it reduction is 80% about 39mph.
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#66 Postby drezee » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:22 pm

47 knot flight level winds!!!

80% 43 mph surface!!!
Last edited by drezee on Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#67 Postby Hyperstorm » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:23 pm

47 kts indicates this is a 45 mph tropical storm at this time.

I wonder if they'll issue a special update shortly. In any case, it is a good bet it will be upgraded to a tropical storm at the 8pm intermediate advisory.
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gkrangers

#68 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:23 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:42 knots flight level=48.3 mph=90 percent to the surface is 44.470 mph.
They are flying at 850MB. They use 80% reduction from that level.
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gkrangers

#69 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:27 pm

cl, I'll let you resume your duty.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#70 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:31 pm

The 47 knots flight level=54 mph rounded. At .9 it is 49 mph at .85 it is 43.9 mph. At .8 it is 43.2 mph.


At .75 it is 40.5 mph...
At .70 it is 37.8 mph...Which is the only way they can keep it a depression.
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#71 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:37 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The 47 knots flight level=54 mph rounded. At .9 it is 49 mph at .85 it is 43.9 mph. At .8 it is 43.2 mph.


You have to take the deduction before converting to mph...only makes a .5 mph difference in this case, but the difference in methods increases with the wind speed...
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#72 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:37 pm

THIS IS A JOKE - THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL AT ALL !!!!!!!!!



Now, with that said, don't you know he'd love to do this?



ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANKLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND MASSIVE CATEGORY FIVE FRANKLIN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RAINBANDS SPREADING OVER LAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.


INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD...EVERYONE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANKLIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANKIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST.
AND IT IS HUGE BABY!!! I MEAN GIGANTIC!!!! THE BIGGEST BADDEST HURRICANE OF THEM ALL!!!! THE MOTHER OF ALL HURRICANES!!!

MASSIVE FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...10 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN OVER THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 185 MPH...290 KM/HR...WITH GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANKLIN A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MOST WIMPY STORMS, BUT THE MASSIVE FRANKLIN WILL NOT FALTER!!!!

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 470 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 950 MILES...240 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 881 MB... EAT THAT GILBERT!!!!!

EMILY MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES OVER THE ENTIER EASTERN UNITES STATES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 24 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.ARE POSSIBLE.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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#73 Postby jkt21787 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:40 pm

regarding the recon report of TS FL Winds...from the discussion:
NOTE...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
JUST REPORTED AT 2114Z FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...WHICH WOULD
NORMALLY SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE WOULD PREFER TO SEE
DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST BEFORE UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL
STORM.
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gkrangers

#74 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:40 pm

221
UZNT13 KNHC 212113
XXAA 71208 99253 70754 08055 99005 26817 22507 00045 26214 21506
92731 22218 22504 85464 18813 14004 88999 77999
31313 09608 82029
51515 10166 00085
61616 AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 09
62626 SPL 2531N07539W 2031 MBL WND 21506 AEV 20507 DLM WND 21004
005863 WL150 21506 077 =
XXBB 71208 99253 70754 08055 00005 26817 11850 18813 22846 17408
21212 00005 22507 11863 13505 22846 14004
31313 09608 82029
51515 10166 00085
61616 AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 09
62626 SPL 2531N07539W 2031 MBL WND 21506 AEV 20507 DLM WND 21004
005863 WL150 21506 077 =


Pressure 1005MB.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#75 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:41 pm

That would be increasing to see.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#76 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:45 pm

So this thing has tropical storm force winds in because convection is decreasing they won't do it? Where is the facts that it has those winds at?
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#77 Postby jasons2k » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:45 pm

dhweather wrote:THIS IS A JOKE - THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL AT ALL !!!!!!!!!



That was about the funniest thing I ever read!!! Altho it looks like Franklin may be a little Schizophrenic - he also thinks she's an Emily. :wink: :D
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#78 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 4:48 pm

gkrangers wrote:221
(snip)
Pressure 1005MB.


Observation Number: 09
Time transmitted: 2113Z
Position: 25.3 North // 75.4 West
Sea Level Pressure: 1005 millibars
Surface wind speed and direction: 7 knots // 225
1000 millibar height: 45 meters
1000 millibar winds 6 knots // 215
925 millibar height: 731 meters
925 millibar winds: 4 knots // 225
850 millibar height: 1464 meters
850 millibar winds: 4 knots / /140
Last edited by clfenwi on Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#79 Postby clfenwi » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:27 pm

000

URNT12 KNHC 212157
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/21:39:00Z
B. 25 deg 28 min N
075 deg 35 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 139 deg 013 nm
F. 204 deg 035 kt
G. 135 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 21 C/ 283 m
J. 23 C/ 271 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 01EEA INVEST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 21:13:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
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#80 Postby fci » Thu Jul 21, 2005 5:35 pm

jschlitz wrote:
dhweather wrote:THIS IS A JOKE - THIS IS NOT OFFICIAL AT ALL !!!!!!!!!



That was about the funniest thing I ever read!!! Altho it looks like Franklin may be a little Schizophrenic - he also thinks she's an Emily. :wink: :D


Metrosexual storm.
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