18z models - still an invest. (most up to date)

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gkrangers

18z models - still an invest. (most up to date)

#1 Postby gkrangers » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:38 pm

Title edited for the time challenged :)

853
WHXX01 KWBC 211833
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050721 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050721 1800 050722 0600 050722 1800 050723 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.0N 75.0W 25.8N 76.3W 26.5N 77.3W 26.9N 78.0W
BAMM 25.0N 75.0W 26.0N 76.5W 27.1N 77.4W 28.0N 77.9W
A98E 25.0N 75.0W 26.7N 76.6W 28.5N 77.4W 30.2N 77.1W
LBAR 25.0N 75.0W 26.2N 76.3W 27.4N 77.2W 28.4N 77.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050723 1800 050724 1800 050725 1800 050726 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 27.1N 78.7W 27.1N 81.0W 27.5N 84.6W 28.5N 87.6W
BAMM 28.7N 78.0W 28.9N 78.9W 29.2N 81.0W 30.0N 83.3W
A98E 31.5N 75.8W 33.2N 73.7W 33.3N 72.0W 31.2N 69.2W
LBAR 29.1N 77.6W 30.5N 76.4W 32.4N 74.8W 34.0N 73.2W
SHIP 48KTS 52KTS 53KTS 54KTS
DSHP 48KTS 52KTS 53KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 23.3N LONM12 = 73.3W DIRM12 = 319DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 21.5N LONM24 = 71.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Last edited by gkrangers on Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:38 pm

But they now show winds up to 35 mph.
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#3 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:45 pm

If I can connect the dots properly, the models have shifted to the right or east and are showing a bit more of a recurvature.

<RICKY>
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#4 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:48 pm

Also there was something I wanted to add as well. How come the tropics seem to be so....staged? For a few days in a row now a huge ridge was in place the same one that kept Emily from making landfall in the US. This ridge was very strong and now that Invest90 is there, all of a sudden a cold front trough has to come down which could recurve 90L out to sea? Im not complaining but it seems that the tropics were staged. Am I weird on this one?

<RICKY>
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#5 Postby dhweather » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:48 pm

The BAM'S say GOM, the others say SC/recurve

All but A98E agree east coast FL gets hit by whatever this turns out to be

<img src="http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif">
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#6 Postby jax » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:54 pm

dhweather wrote:The BAM'S say GOM, the others say SC/recurve

All but A98E agree east coast FL gets hit by whatever this turns out to be

<img src="http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_90.gif">


only the UKMET and GFDL are 1700z acording to that graph header...
and neither one show up on the graph...

all the others are initialized at 1200z
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#7 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:56 pm

models are updated, graphics will follow soon...
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#8 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:56 pm

now there updated...
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#9 Postby Brent » Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:57 pm

They are just waiting on recon... no way this is still an invest.
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#10 Postby rainstorm » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:48 pm

i think we will see explosive development and i am doubtful it turns out to sea. :cry:
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#11 Postby dwg71 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:49 pm

rainstorm wrote:i think we will see explosive development and i am doubtful it turns out to sea. :cry:


Based on what?? Im interested in why you say that.
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#12 Postby deltadog03 » Thu Jul 21, 2005 2:57 pm

because the ridge is strong and it should push this westward
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