90L Invest

[Brent]

we'll see warnings for the NW Bahamas

there are not any idnications that this will hit Florida right now. It will come close, that it will. But a landfall is not likely based upon the data and model runs

Georgia? South Carolina??

[Derek Ortt]

too soon to say.

have two mm5 runs going on it currently, one off of GFS and the other off of GFDL (btoh 12Z). Soon we will also have MM5 runs off of NOGAPS and CMC, allowing us to have an ensemble

[kevin]

Its coming to Ocala Florida!

That was a wishcast. I really would like a moderate tropical storm to come here, give me a day or two off. That would be nifty.

[vbhoutex]

I just looked at the visible. WOW!!!!! That sucker has really wound up!! Looks like an eye trying to pop out too. My guess is we do have TS Franklin already. I haven't looked at anything besides the vis loop, so it is based soley on that. Even the "eye" feature looks "real". IOW, not like I would normally see when it is the product of a collapsing Tstorm.

[kevin]

I'm amazed at the proto-eye. Don't know what else to call it. Usually when people say there is an eye, there isn't an eyewall. To me it doesn't look like one of those times.

[beenthru6]

you can have it. Myrtle Beach area could use some rain, but I'll take it in the form of a good ole'thunderstorm.

[sweetpea]

I'm amazed at the proto-eye. Don't know what else to call it. Usually when people say there is an eye, there isn't an eyewall. To me it doesn't look like one of those times.

What does that mean proto-eye?

[dgparent]

Just a question has a invest ever gone from a invest right to a hurricane? Or a TS ? Just wondering ifthe NHC ever missed something and a invest went right to the top of the food chain.

[HURAKAN]

Just a question has a invest ever gone from a invest right to a hurricane? Or a TS ? Just wondering ifthe NHC ever missed something and a invest went right to the top of the food chain.

Yes to a TS, but I don't remember going to a hurricane directly.

[kevin]

I'm sorry, I meant to say 'proto-eye because I don't know what else to call it'. Protoeye to my knowledge isn't a technical term. It means developing eye, or partial eye, in Kevin-speak.

[hurricanefloyd5]

t.s.watches/warningsa for florida soon??????????????????????????

[frederic79]

Seems like last year Ivan went straight to TS and had an "eye" right away...

[Brent]

Just a question has a invest ever gone from a invest right to a hurricane? Or a TS ? Just wondering ifthe NHC ever missed something and a invest went right to the top of the food chain.

Yes to a TS, but I don't remember going to a hurricane directly.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE NOEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
NOON AST MON NOV 05 2001

...NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES HURRICANE
NOEL...THE EIGHTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND REACHED
HURRICANE STRENGTH.

AT NOON AST...1600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST OR ABOUT 575 MILES...930
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO EASTERN
NEWFOUNDLAND ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

REPEATING THE NOON AST POSITION...38.5 N... 50.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[hurricanefloyd5]

t.s.franklin a 50mph t.s.????????????????

[sweetpea]

I'm sorry, I meant to say 'proto-eye because I don't know what else to call it'. Protoeye to my knowledge isn't a technical term. It means developing eye, or partial eye, in Kevin-speak.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I just looked at the visible. WOW!!!!! That sucker has really wound up!! Looks like an eye trying to pop out too. My guess is we do have TS Franklin already. I haven't looked at anything besides the vis loop, so it is based soley on that. Even the "eye" feature looks "real". IOW, not like I would normally see when it is the product of a collapsing Tstorm.

I'd have to agree, much as I have a hard time seeing how a true eyewall can "wrap" up in one shot like it appears. The infrared seems to back up the convention being solid all the way around now...can't wait for the recon reports.......

[mike18xx]

Ideally, a depression should be identified as one before it develops an EYE!

[Lowpressure]

Looks like an eye on that shot.

[Windy]

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot... that really shouldn't be an eye. Give it a couple more sat shots. Maybe it's a trick of the light or something.

[dhweather]

It's not an eye - it's a cleared out area near the center of circulation.

<<<<--- look in the center of my avatar, that's an eye